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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
With Thiago Alves' removal from the UFC 111 card, the pay-per-view portion of the event has undergone a bit of a shakeup. Still, with two Title fights and some solid matchups, this card is the best, on paper, for the UFC in the year 2010 thus far. With that said, let's take a look at the night's pay-per-view card:
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek (Lightweight)
Jim Miller is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt and former collegiate wrestler with a stellar 16-2 career record in MMA. That record includes a 5-1 mark in the UFC, and he enters the Octagon on Saturday night riding a three fight win streak.
Mark Bocek is also riding a three fight win streak, with all three coming by rear naked choke. Bocek himself is a black belt in BJJ, but his style and success in MMA is predicated on being able to work that skillset from top control, an option he's not going to have against the much better wrestler in Miller.
Miller holds the edge on the feet as well. He's got surprisingly underrated striking, and if the fight does go to the ground he'll be able to wear Bocek out. Bocek may be able to pull something off in the fight and find a way to outpoint Miller, but I'm just not seeing that as the case here.
PREDICTION: Miller by TKO in the second.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes (Lightweight)
Kurt Pellegrino comes into this fight on a three fight win streak, most recently riding out a decision victory over Josh Neer at UFC 101 last August. A wrestler and jiu jitsu specialist that runs his own gym in New Jersey, Pellegrino has a tough task ahead of him in up and coming Camoes.
A late point deduction turned Camoes' UFC debut against Caol Uno into a majority draw at UFC 106 in November. A Brazilian Jiu JItsu black belt, Camoes had won seven straight before making that debut.
It may take awhile for Pellegrino to take this fight over, as Camoes showed off some very good takedown defense against Caol Uno, but Pellegrino is a better wrestler and should be able to take the fight to the ground early and often. Using his top game and ability to keep his position when he brings it to the ground, I'd expect Pellegrino to score points and frustrate Camoes throughout the fight.
PREDICTION:Pellegrino via unanimous decision
Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders (welterweight)
Saunders asked for this fight on Thursday when Thiago Alves was forced off the card, and now he's got the biggest fight of his career ahead of him. He's only got one loss on his record officially, as The Ultimate Fighter bouts are all considered exhibitions. That loss, of course, came to Fitch's AKA teammate Mike Swick at UFC 99 last June.
Fitch is considered the second best welterweight in the world, with his only loss in his twelve UFC appearances coming in a five round war with Georges St. Pierre in Minneapolis at UFC 87 in August of 2008. Since that loss he's won three straight fights, all coming by decision.
Fitch hasn't prepared for the height and length of Saunders, but that will just serve to have him resort to his bread and butter, his wrestling and top game. If Saunders can rock Fitch and get him into his deadly Thai clinch with his knees he might be able to pull off the upset, but if GSP couldn't finish Fitch with the beating he put on him I don't see Saunders being able to do so. Not on two day's notice anyway.
It's a big opportunity for Saunders, and if he's able to keep himself off his back there's a chance he could take a decision as well, but again it's not a likely scenario for this fight. Unfortunately, without fully preparing for Jon Fitch and what he's able to bring to a fight, the upset isn't likely to come Saturday night.
PREDICTION: Fitch via unanimous decision
Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin (UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship)
Though Shane Carwin is being lauded for his 11 career wins and none of those fights getting past 2:11 of the first round, there are simply a whole lot more questions than answers surrounding him and what he'll be able to do in this fight with Mir. One of the main issues centers around the fact that he's also been out of action for a year, and this is his first fight against a top five heavyweight.
Frank Mir is coming into this fight hungrier than ever to get to a rubber match with Brock Lesnar, and if he pulls this win off after his victory over Cheick Kongo in December he'll certainly have earned it. Mir comes into this fight as a bigger heavyweight than perhaps he's ever been while in shape, and where Carwin brings the power in his striking, Mir brings speed and technical ability.
Carwin has the type of power that has bested Mir in the past, and of course if he connects with just about anything Mir could be down and out, but if Mir pushes him even late into the first round the question becomes whether or not Carwin's got a gas tank to hang with Mir. His wrestling, while clearly an asset, has not needed to be showcased in his fights in the UFC and how he's able to implement that could determine how well he's able to hold off Mir on the ground.
This is a very even fight, though, and it may be Mir's experience that makes all the difference in this fight. Either way, Title fight or not, this fight won't need the third. I see Mir pushing Carwin into the longest fight by far of his career and picking off a limb in the second round.
PREDICTION: Mir via submission in the second round.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy (UFC Welterweight Championship)
What more can be said about the phenomenal UFC Welterweight Champion? At 19-2, he has dominated nearly every opponent in the cage, and has avenged the two losses on his record as well. He's simply one of the best fighters to have ever competed in the sport, and he has a drive to be the very best the sport has ever seen.
Dan Hardy is coming into the first Title fight for a British fighter in the UFC with supreme confidence in himself that he's going to pull this upset off. He looked very impressive against Mike Swick to earn himself this shot, but GSP is not Mike Swick.
This fight is a completely different animal from any that Hardy has dealt with. St. Pierre's not a fighter that you can truly prepare for, as he's able to throw the best off their game and he learns new things and gets better after every victory. The loss to Matt Serra has instilled St. Pierre with the knowledge that he can't overlook any opponent, and the feeling he felt after losing that fight is something he doesn't want to experience again.
Hardy's been portrayed as a knockout artist with the UFC Primetime series, and he's talking about his chances in this fight as if he only needs to catch Georges with that one shot and it'll be over. St. Pierre's not going to be taken out by one punch, and he's simply far too fast, far too strong, far too relentless and simply far too good for Hardy in this fight. St. Pierre defends his Welterweight Title once again on Saturday night, and anything result other than St. Pierre with his hand raised will be a complete shock.
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
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