Penick's Take
UFC 111 PREVIEW: Penick's preliminary card previews and predictions
Mar 26, 2010 - 1:35:28 AM UFC 111 PREVIEW: Penick's preliminary card previews and predictions

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Saturday's UFC 111 card has gotten a bit of a shakeup here today with the news coming out that Thiago Alves has been pulled from the card following a failed CT scan. With that, one of the night's six preliminary card fights, between Kurt Pellegrino and Fabricio Camoes, has been pulled up to the pay-per-view portion of the night's card.

But with five fights still left for the night's prelims, two of which are guaranteed for broadcast on Spike TV, let's take a look at what's in store for the night's event.

Matt Riddle vs. Greg Soto (Welterweight)

Greg Soto is a 7-0 professional making his debut in the UFC in this fight. A brown belt in jiu jitsu under main card competitor Kurt Pellegrino, the New Jersey native took this fight on a month's notice for the injured Ricardo Funch.

Riddle has fought all four of his professional fights in the UFC after competing on the Ultimate Fighter's seventh season on Quinton "Rampage" Jackson's team. He was knocked out of the tournament by Tim Credeur in his second fight on the show. He began his career with three straight decision victories before losing to Nick Osipczak by TKO last November in Manchester, England.

Riddle himself is a purple belt in jiu jitsu, and both fighters wrestled in high school as well. This is pretty evenly matched fight on paper, and while Soto technically holds the experience edge with more fights under his belt, Riddle has fought on the big stage for all of his fights and has a significant Octagon experience advantage.

Soto's biggest weapon is his ground game, and he's facing a fighter in Riddle who is more than skilled enough to not only negate his biggest threat, but keep him off his game the entire fight. If Riddle comes into this fight as prepared as he should be, this is his for the taking. His wrestling is superior, his top game quite good and Soto simply won't have an answer for it.

PREDICTION: Riddle via unanimous decision.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal (Middleweight)

Palhares is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt that holds a 3-1 record in the UFC. In stature he's short for a middleweight at only 5'8", but that hasn't stopped him from compiling seven submissions in his ten win career.

Drwal is a polish striker riding a three fight win streak in the UFC after losing his organizational debut to Thiago Silva in 2007. That loss had ended a 13 fight win streak, and was only his second career loss.

Both fighters will be coming in with opposing gameplans, Palhares to get the fight to the ground and Drwal to keep it on the feet, and the result will come down to which one is able to successfully implement theirs.

Drwal is a good enough wrestler to keep himself standing in this fight, and he holds a five inch height advantage in this fight along with the reach advantage that will go along with it. He should be able to outstrike Palhares in this fight and, if he can't take him out, more than certainly out-point him to win this fight.

PREDICTION: Drwal via TKO in the second round.

Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman (Light Heavyweight)

Both Wallace and Hamman come into this fight after losing their respective UFC debuts. While Wallace dropped a unanimous decision to Brian Stann in December, Hamman was knocked out by Alexander Gustaffson just :41 into their bout last November.

This is a make or break fight for both fighters, with the loser likely getting cut from the UFC after two consecutive losses in the Octagon.

Wallace has an edge in the grappling department here, and will likely have a fairly easy time getting Hamman to the ground. Hamman's hope in this fight will be to catch Wallace before the fight gets to the ground and out of his control, but in this one I'll take Wallace to rebound from his only loss.

PREDICTION: Wallace via unanimous decision

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown (Welterweight)

Ricardo Almeida is one of the most well regarded jiu jitsu fighters in the game, and is a black belt in the art under Renzo Gracie. He returned from a three year layoff from fighting in 2008, and has gone 3-1 in the Octagon in the middleweight division, his only loss a split decision to Patrick Cote. This bout marks his debut at welterweight.

Brown has now strung together three straight victories, and is 4-1 overall in the UFC, following his time on the seventh season of The Ultimate Fighter. His sole loss in the Octagon as well came by split decision, to Dong Hyun Kim in a fight many, myself included, believed he had done enough to win.

All of Brown's 11 career victories have come by way of submission or knockout, but he's got a history of getting submitted himself. Almeida's not going to be able to hang with Brown when they're on the feet, as Brown has some legit power in his hands and is improving as a striker, but if he can get the fight to the ground things will be very interesting.

The main concern for Almeida's success in this fight is how the weight cut affects him. Dropping down for the first time can have disastrous results, as James Irvin proved last week. If Almeida has enough energy to keep on Brown to get this fight to the ground I like his chances to finish him there.

PREDICTION: Almeida via submission in the second round

Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham (Welterweight)

Nate Diaz, the Ultimate Fighter season five winner and brother of Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz, makes his debut in the welterweight division in this fight after a split decision loss to Gray Maynard gave him three losses in his last four fights in the lightweight division.

Rory Markham hasn't fought in over a year, and his last fight out was his knockout loss to Dan Hardy in February of last year. That was Hardy's only KO in the Octagon. Markham has a highlight reel KO in the UFC of his own, that one coming by way of a head kick to Brodie Farber in July of 2008.

Both fighters have to contend with issues coming into this fight; Markham with the year long layoff and Diaz with the jump up in weight. While it may seem that Markham doesn't possess the type of skillset that has been the bane of Diaz's existence over the last year, that being a strong and relentless wrestling base, his striking is no joke and he's got 11 KO or TKO victories to attest to that.

Markham's training partner and cornerman for this fight, former UFC and IFL fighter Mike Ciesnolevicz, told MMATorch that he believes Markham is "too big and powerful for Nate Diaz. Rory has never been submitted in his career and also i doubt Diaz has the power to be able to deal with Rory standing up."

There's something to be said for this, as Diaz has not faced a fighter Markham's size, nor has he gone up against someone with the striking ability that Markham has. If Diaz is willing to stand and trade with Markham, like he has been apt to do in many a fight, he's going to have issues.

If Diaz can get the fight to the ground we'll see a real test for Markham and just how capable he can be with his wrestling in trying to avoid Diaz's submissions. As it stands, I think Diaz might have some trouble here, and may be too willing to keep the fight on the feet. As such, I'm liking the upset in the headliner on the Spike TV portion of the event.

PREDICTION: Markham via TKO in the second round