Penick's Take
PENICK: Previews and Predictions for December 19th WEC 45 and Strikeforce: Evolution double shot
Dec 19, 2009 - 4:31:43 PM PENICK: Previews and Predictions for December 19th WEC 45 and Strikeforce: Evolution double shot

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

MMA fans have a choice to make tonight on two very solid MMA events on Versus and Showtime airing live at 10PM ET. With the WEC bringing a night of action packed fights in the lighter weight classes, Strikeforce is bringing some new faces into the fold on Showtime. If you have the capability, don't miss out on either and make sure to DVR the event you choose not to catch live. With that said, let's get on to some previews and predictions for the main cards of tonight's events!

WEC 45: CERRONE VS. HENDERSON

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Scott Jorgensen: Jorgensen has made himself somewhat of a staple on WEC events over the past year and a half, having multiple exciting fights in five appearances for the organization. He's 3-2 thus far in the blue cage, and most recently picked up a first round TKO over Noah Thomas in October after a razor thin split decision loss to Antonio Banuelos in June. Takeya Mizugaki steps into his third WEC appearance after a close split decision victory of his own over Jeff Curran, coming after his loss to Miguel Torres in one of the fights of the year back in April. Both fighters are sure to bring fireworks to this bout, and it's a great way to start off the Versus broadcast. Mizugaki has a definite size advantage in this one, but Jorgensen is extremely scrappy and this should be a very competitive bout. I'll take Mizugaki, however, with a decision victory in this one.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Rani Yahya: Rani Yahya comes into this bout with Joseph Benavidez on the back of three straight "Submission of the Night" victories in the WEC, all in the first round. After losing a decision to Dominick Cruz, his first of his career, in August, Benavidez comes into tonight's bout looking to get closer to a Title shot in the bantamweight division. Benavidez finished all of his fights before entering the WEC, but he has now gone the distance in three straight bouts. That's unlikely to happen here, as both fighters will be looking to finish this one off, and both are very adept at pulling off submissions. Yahya himself has only been submitted once, but Benavidez has never been stopped. I like Benavidez to pick up the second round sub after a good fight.

Anthony Njokuani vs. Chris Horodecki: 22 year old Chris Horodecki makes his WEC debut tonight, bringing with him a 13-1 record, mainly in the IFL. Njokuani sports a similar 11-2 record, though his only losses have come at the hands of Donald Cerrone and Benson Henderson. Both fighters are riding two fight win streaks, but Horodecki has a gotten a tough draw here for his WEC debut. He'll be giving up five inches in height in this one against a fighter with very capable striking that can keep him at bay, and it's going to be a really tough fight for him to win. He'll make this one a competitive fight, but this is Njokuani's fight to lose. I like his striking to finish this off in the second.

Donald Cerrone vs. Ed Ratcliff: This one pits Cerrone's submissions against Ratcliff's striking, and with Cerrone making the drop to 145 after this fight he definitely wants to go out on a high note. Ratcliff doesn't have the wrestling game that has bested Cerrone in fights against Jamie Varner and Benson Henderson, and as such this will be Cerrone's fight to lose. He's had a habit of slow starts as of late and has come out recently stating that it won't be the case in this bout. I'll take Cerrone to take control of this one early and pick up a first round submission to cap off another exciting WEC event.

STRIKEFORCE: EVOLUTION ON SHOWTIME

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal vs. Mike Whitehead: If Whitehead had come into this fight more in shape, and closer to the light heavyweight limit he's fought most of his career at, instead of the near 265 lb. heavyweight limit for this bout I'd say he'd have a good chance to hand King Mo his first career loss. Instead, after a sluggish and gassed out victory over Kevin Randleman in his Strikeforce debut, he'll give up speed with more weight and likely his gas tank. Against a highly athletic and talented prospect in "King Mo," those are extremely vital tools that will not be at his disposal. Lawal has dispatched of four of his five opponents by strikes, but Whitehead hasn't been finished since 2002. Lawal has a chance to make a big impression to U.S. MMA fans on Showtime tonight, and I think he'll do just that with a second round TKO.

Matt Lindland vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza: Jacare had lost only one bout before facing off against now Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Gegard Mousasi in DREAM's Middleweight Grand Prix final, and he started that bout off well before being knocked out by an upkick from Mousasi. He makes his Strikeforce, and U.S., debut here against Lindland, who was last seen knocked out cold by Vitor Belfort in January on Affliction's second pay-per-view event. Lindland has fought sparingly over the last few years, and also makes his Strikeforce debut in this bout. Souza is a submission specialist who will be looking for a breakout performance for the U.S. audience. Lindland has had a lengthy time off since his loss to Belfort, but it was still a vicious defeat, and Souza is the younger and fresher of the two. Souza picks up the submission in this one in the first round.

Josh Thomson vs. Gilbert Melendez (Strikeforce Lightweight Title: Thomson, a former UFC fighter who has not lost a bout since a March 2006 decision to Clay Guida. He swept the cards in the first meeting between these two, but Melendez has improved his game in his last two bouts and is out to avenge the only other loss on his record after successfully doing so with the first against Mitsuhiro Ishida. This should be another great bout between the two, but with Thomson's injury layoff I like Melendez to take the edge back and pull out a decision victory.

Cung Le vs. Scott Smith: Le has finished all six of his MMA opponents, and has presented his unique blend of kickboxing and San Shou in his appearances thus far. Smith has shown himself capable of taking more punishment and continuing on in a fight than most any other, and he'll need that tonight. Le is returning for the first time in a year and a half, and may show some signs of cage rust when he gets in there tonight, but I like his kickboxing to best Smith, and should things get in close look for him to utilize his San Shou to toss Smith to the ground. He'll not keep it down on the mat, as long as he employs a smart gameplan, but he will certainly have the advantage on the feet. Smith can't ever be counted out, but I'd expect Le to take this one tonight in the third round by TKO.

So that's what's on tap for tonight, make sure to check back in tonight as we'll have live coverage of both events right here on MMATorch.com tonight. I'll be covering Strikeforce as it airs, while Torch Columnist Matt Pelkey will blog his thoughts on the WEC events as it airs. I'll also have my typical round by round report of the WEC event on delay once the Strikeforce presentation has completed, so check it all out here tonight!