Penick's Take
PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez
Dec 11, 2009 - 6:24:22 PM PENICK: Previews and Predictions for UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

It's that time again. Another UFC pay-per-view event is upon us, and while UFC 107 does not have the originally planned headline fight between The Ultimate Fighter's tenth season coaches Rashad Evans and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, it does bring to us B.J. Penn's next UFC Lightweight Title defense against Diego Sanchez. There's a ton more to like on this card, so let's get right to it!

Preliminary Card Bouts

Kevin Burns vs. T.J. Grant: When Kevin Burns made his UFC debut in London back in June of 2008, not many people gave the then 28 year old much of a chance against talented submission specialist and BJJ black belt Roan Carneiro. Burns won that fight, and to the shock of everyone did it by way of submission, earning him a nice bonus to go along with his first victory in the Octagon. Following that he "won" his first bout against Anthony Johnson due to a number of eye pokes that nearly ended Johnson's career. He's now dropped two straight, with Johnson getting his revenge with a vicious head kick KO and then Burns lost a battle with Chris Lytle this past June. Grant has split his Octagon appearances with two fights going to decision. The 25 year old Canadian has 12 submission victories to his credit, and against another talented submission guy in Burns, we may just have ourselves a stand up battle on hand. Grant is the younger fighter, hungry for a decisive win, but on that same token Burns is in desperate need of a victory to avoid getting his walking papers. This is a true toss up, so go ahead and pick your guy, but I like Grant to take this with a second round TKO.

DaMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia: Johnson was the most hyped fighter from Team U.S.A. on the ninth season of The Ultimate Fighter, and was the favorite for the welterweight portion of the show throughout. However, he was handled by a surprising James Wilks in the finals and lost via submission in the first round. Garcia also suffered a loss in his UFC debut, but the WEC transplant's loss to Brad Blackburn wasn't very clear cut, and in fact fans in the building rained down boos on the cage following the split decision being awarded to Blackburn. He's looking to rebound from his first ever career loss, but he's got a very tough task ahead of him in Johnson. Johnson is capable of finishing the fight on the ground and with his hands, and as he showcased on The Ultimate Fighter, both are fairly well developed. He may have fallen short in The Ultimate Fighter, but DaMarques Johnson rebounds in this one to take a third round submission victory.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares: We've got a battle of Brazilians in this one, with the submission stylings of Palhares being matched up with the exciting overall game of Linhares, who is making his UFC debut. The former M-1 Challenge fighter brings with him a 13-4 record, including five straight, all stopped in the first round. Palhares has the edge in this one on the ground, despite how talented Linhares is in that respect, but Palhares' stand up game is not at Lucio's level in the least. Palhares will need to get this one to the ground, and though Linhares has never been submitted before I'll take Toquinho to finish him off in the second by submission.

Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch: Johny Hendricks may be a former two-time NCAA D-1 Wrestling Champion, but his quick and powerful hands have been his staple through six straight victories to begin his career. Funch has never tasted defeat himself, bringing a 7-0 record into his Octagon debut. This one is about Hendricks' wrestling and his hands, and he should have an advantage in both categories on Saturday night. I'd look for Hendricks to take this one in vicious fashion in the first round.

Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson: Wiman holds a 4-3 record in the UFC, though all three losses were to respectable competition in the lightweight division, and only one was a stoppage. Nelson, on the other hand, has two technical victories in the Octagon, though one was an early ref stoppage that received enough outcry to warrant a rematch with Aaron Riley, though that one saw him get handled by Riley in a decision loss. Wiman has dropped two straight decisions and needs a win bad. Desperation takes over here and Wiman walks out with a first round TKO victory.

Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia: This bout is now being contested at a catchweight of 195 lbs. due to Gouveia's continued issue with making weight in the middleweight division. Gouveia is 2-2 in his last four fights in the UFC, losing by TKO twice and picking up two submission victories. For Belcher, he's steadily climbing the 185 lb. ranks, despite a setback in July that saw him lose a split decision to Yoshihiro Akiyami in a fight many fans, and Joe Rogan on commentary, clearly thought he won. At this point I think while Gouveia's got a lot of talent and some great hands, Belcher is the better overall fighter. Belcher takes this one home with a return to his fight stopping ways, picking up a second round TKO victory.

Main Pay Per View Card Bouts

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve: This is the first of two heavyweight bouts on the card with a clear "striker vs. grappler" match-up. Struve is coming into his own at 21, and in his last bout looked phenomenal in all aspects of his game. Buentello last fought in January where he beat "Baby Fedor" Kirill Sidelnikov due to doctor's stoppage in the third round. Struve needs to avoid Buentello's knockout punch and avoid making mistakes to get this one to the ground. If he can do that, and I think he will, he has a great chance to be only the third guy in six years to defeat Buentello, joining a club only Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem can say they are a part of. I'm taking the kid with his 6'11" frame to find a way to pull off a submission in the second round.

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce: This fight, for all intents and purposes, shouldn't last long. Fitch is legitimately the second or third best welterweight in the world, and should beat a fighter in only his second UFC fight in quick fashion. The operative word here is "should," and simply put Fitch hasn't made it a case to finish too many fights in decisive fashion lately. Pierce got this fight because of injuries to other fighters and the fact that he shocked everyone by beating Brock Larson in September. Well now Larson has lost again, and worse, and there has to be some question as to just how good Pierce is coming into this one. He won't beat Fitch, but it will become a matter of how well he's able to stay with him in this one that pegs his level in the division. Fitch has stated recently that he hates decision, and I'd like to see some fire out of the former Welterweight Title contender in this one to finish it with a second round submission.

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida: Florian steps into his first fight after losing a second bid at the Lightweight Title this past August to B.J. Penn. Guida is looking to rebound from a loss of his own to the night's challenger Diego Sanchez. Guida is a relentless buzzsaw of a wrestler who very well could have the chops to hold Florian down all night. He's also switched over to Greg Jackson's camp and will likely be an improved version of "The Carpenter" come Saturday night. That said, Florian is much better in the striking game and has a great jiu jitsu background. He can't fight off his back all fight, but as long as it's standing he'll be the one connecting with kicks, knees and punches, as his Muay Thai is excellent and he's moved camps himself to the Tristar Gym in Montreal. Now training with Georges St. Pierre and many other top fighters Florian will look to be better than he was before, and this will be an important first step for him if he wants to ever get back to a third chance at a Lightweight Title reign. Florian takes this one in convincing fashion with a third round submission.

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo: Our second "striker vs. grappler" heavyweight bout is exactly that, as Kongo is superior in the stand up game while significantly below Mir on the ground. If Mir has any delusions that he can stand and trade with Kongo he's going to be going to sleep early, but it's more likely that the former Heavyweight Champion knows he'll need a victory to even have hope of his desired third match with Brock Lesnar. Kongo's going to need to connect early with something really big to avoid this fight going to the ground, and once it does Frank Mir knows how to finish. He's not going to simply try to control Kongo for three rounds like Cain Velasquez was able to. Instead, Mir will be looking for a limb to break, and eventually he'll get one in the second round for the submission victory.

B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez (UFC Lightweight Title): There isn't anything Diego Sanchez brings to this fight that B.J. Penn isn't better than him at, so why is he being considered one of the bigger tests in Penn's career at 155? Well, he's a cardio machine who will have no problems stretching this fight out to the limit, he's got a very good boxing game and he is an excellent wrestler to boot, not to mention the fact that he's a very big lightweight. That said, B.J. himself is a former Welterweight Champion and fought Lyoto Machida in an open weight bout. Sanchez is likely to stretch this fight deep into the Championship rounds, and he'll give Penn fits along the way, but the Champ is simply the best 155 lb. fighter in the world, and until someone proves me wrong I'll continue to pick the prodigy in any 155 lb. Title defense as long as he holds that belt. I expect Sanchez to look great in this fight, and in defeat still come out looking strong, but B.J. Penn adds another late fifth round submission to his highlight reel to cap off a great night of action in Tennessee.

That's what's on tap this Saturday, live on pay-per-view. As always, be sure to check in here for our live round by round updates of all the action as it airs on pay-per-view!

For our in-house Betting Contest I'll take the following bets:

$400 on Johnson (my only real "upset" pick based on the lines)

$100 on Grant

$200 on Florian

$300 on Penn