Penick's Take
PENICK: Previews and predictions for The Ultimate Fighter season 10 finale main card
Dec 4, 2009 - 12:23:55 AM PENICK: Previews and predictions for The Ultimate Fighter season 10 finale main card

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The tenth season of The Ultimate Fighter comes to a close on Saturday night, with Roy Nelson and Brendan Schaub battling it out to become the first heavyweight winner of the show since Rashad Evans in season two. Then we've got the main event on tap between Matt Hamill and Jon "Bones" Jones as well. With five fights set for the Spike broadcast on Saturday night, here's what's on tap!

Marcus Jones vs. Matt Mitrione: "Big Baby" and "Meathead" square off in a bout pitting two former NFL players against one another. Jones nearly started a fight in the training facility after Mitrione's eye poke of Scott Junk had Junk worried he may never fight again, and due to that confrontation this bout was set. Jones is bigger, stronger and faster than Mitrione, and depending on what interview you read Jones has improved immensely in the striking game. Mitrione's got a puncher's chance, but this is all Jones' fight to win. I'd expect a first round submission from "Big Baby."

Frankie Edgar vs. Matt Veach: The main card's only lightweight affair with the above 200 lb. crowd getting all the love on this night pits a fighter in Edgar on the cusp of the top of the division and Veach looking to play spoiler. Veach has not tasted defeat in his career thus far, but came extremely close in his UFC debut. After getting knocked down and nearly taken out by Matt Grice in the first round of their bout in February, Veach bounced back to score the TKO victory late in the first round. Edgar is coming off the biggest win of his career over former Lightweight Champ Sean Sherk at UFC 98 in May. Edgar himself has only lost one bout, a decision loss to Gray Maynard 20 months ago. Veach has finished all but one of his eleven fights, picking up six submissions and four TKO's, but Edgar doesn't get finished and has great cardio to go along with his skills to boot, and he's the clear favorite for a reason. Veach will hang with him, but ultimately come up short as Edgar takes this with a third round TKO.

Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander: This one brings Houston Alexander back into the UFC for one thing and one thing only: brawl with Kimbo. Slice has been exposed over his last handful of fights as the one dimensional striker that he is, but his time on TUF did some good in making him a more human figure and getting some more respect from hardcore fans for taking the challenge to appear on the show. Kimbo's cutting weight for the first time in his career as this one is contracted for a 215 lb. catchweight, and with him struggling with the cut and Alexander's better overall skillset this one should be Houston's for the taking. If it goes as all are expecting it to this one finishes quickly and violently, and Houston knocks out Kimbo Slice in the first round.

Roy Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub (TUF 10 Finals): The final bout of the 16 man heavyweight tournament matches one of the most highly regarded competitors to appear on TUF in Nelson and the clear up and comer of this season in Schaub. The former IFL Champ comes into this bout on what is technically a two fight losing streak, with him dropping bouts to Jeff Monson earlier this year and Andrei Arlovski on CBS last October. Schaub brings with him great athleticism, really heavy hands and what should be an even more improved game with his time in Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico along with his time with Nate Marquardt up in Colorado. This is Schaub's chance for a huge breakout win, but he's going to have to get past a Roy Nelson that has only been finished by Andrei Arlovski. If Nelson can get this fight to the ground after withstanding some strikes from Schaub early, Schaub will have to show a hell of a lot to battle back against him. That striking game could bring victory to him on Saturday night, though, it isn't out of the question, but I have to lean towards Nelson in this one to pick up a late submission in the third round. Nelson can take a punch and Schaub's simply not going to be able to avoid the ground through three rounds to take this one, but I think he'll still impress and will only get better as he continues along in his career.

Matt Hamill vs. Jon Jones: Jones comes into this bout one of the brightest up and coming fighters to emerge in the UFC in years. Jones, at age 22, is already 9-0, and his first fight came in April of 2008. He's been fascinating to watch through three bouts in the UFC, combining his own unique style of offense that mixes improvisational striking, excellent use of his wrestling game and now also the game planning and strategy of Greg Jackson and his team. He's a dangerous, dangerous fighter that gets better seemingly by the minute, but this isn't a match up where he can just roll through his opponent. Hamill is continually improving himself, and the excellent wrestling base he brought into the third season of the Ultimate Fighter is now being complemented by a much improved striking game. Picking up the first true knockout of his career with an epic highlight reel head kick against Mark Munoz in their UFC 106 bout. This is a great test for both fighters, and a fight that both are very capable of winning. That said, I love watching "Bones" do his thing, and I think under Greg Jackson he's only getting better and will pick up yet another victory on his slow and steady climb up the ranks in the light heavyweight division. Jones with a unanimous decision victory after a hard fought fight sends the crowd home on Saturday in Las Vegas.

So that's what's coming Saturday night. Be sure to tune in here as we bring live round by round updates for the event as it airs on Spike TV!