Penick's Take
PENICK: Fight previews and picks for UFC 103: Franklin vs. Belfort
Sep 18, 2009 - 10:09:50 PM PENICK: Fight previews and picks for UFC 103: Franklin vs. Belfort

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On Saturday night in Dallas, TX, Rich Franklin and Vitor Belfort will square off in the main event of UFC 103. Going head to head against the first major boxing pay-per-view since this spring between Floyd Mayweather and Juan Manuel Marquez, the UFC is hoping to ride a wave of momentum from Wednesday's smash ratings hits in Fight Night 19 and The Ultimate Fighter to bring more viewers to this thirteen fight card. Let's get started on the previews.

Preliminary Card

Rob Emerson vs. Rafael Dos Anjos: Dos Anjos is on his last legs here. After holding his own, and actually winning much of his debut fight against Jeremy Stephens, he suffered that highlight reel knockout in the third round. He then had another decent performance in a losing effort to Tyson Griffin. Emerson has put together a good career since starting off 0-4 as a pro. It might not be pretty, but I'll take Emerson to pull off another surprising performance with a unanimous decision.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajac: Matyushenko returns to the UFC for the first time since 2003. Pokrajac is an unknown in the states as he's competed exclusively in eastern Europe. He's a training partner of Mirko Cro Cop's and has a large majority of his victories by way of stoppage. Matyushenko comes into this fight at 38 years of age, and the eight years younger Pokrajac will look to make a splash with a 2nd round TKO.

Jason Brilz vs. Eliot Marshall: Brilz has lost one fight in his career, and that came back in 2001. Marshall as well has only lost once, but he's faced some lesser competition in comparison to Brilz thus far. It's a classic wrestler vs. jiu jitsu fighter here, but I don't think Marshall's going to have enough for Brilz in this one. I mistakenly called for a third round submission from Brilz in out preview audio, when I meant to say third round TKO. That's what I've got Brilz doing tomorrow night.

Brian Foster vs. Rick Story: Rick Story lost his UFC debut at UFC 99 in June, and Foster is making his debut here. Story has won many of his bouts by decision, but Foster's never gone the distance. Foster makes a successful debut with a second round TKO.

Rafaello Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz: Lentz is a member of the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, and both him and Oliveira make their debuts as well on this card. Oliveira's a very skilled ground fighter and would have had a more name challenge in Dan Lauzon on this card before Lauzon's injury, but Lentz is going to be a tough enough test. I'm looking for Lentz to make an impressive debut in picking up a unanimous decision victory.

Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez: Lopez is yet another fighter making his UFC debut here on this 103 card. Miller has put on some very impressive performances inside of the Octagon, and he'll make this a tough debut for Lopez with a unanimous decision victory.

Spike TV Prelims

Thomasz Drwal vs. Drew McFedries: Someone's getting knocked out in the first round. That's been the story for these two, and it will be the story of this fight. McFedries has been on the wrong end of it too many times for his liking, and unfortunately for him he's likely to end up there again as Drwal will take this one in front of the Spike TV audience in brutal fashion in the first round.

Efrain Escudero vs. Cole Miller: Efrain enters the Octagon for the first time since winning the eighth season of The Ultimate Fighter. Cole Miller looks to continue the momentum from his two fight win streak following his sole loss in the Octagon to Jeremy Stephens. If Miller can avoid being smothered for three rounds here, he's got the submission skills to pick something up here. I think he'll do that late with a third round TKO.

Main Pay-Per-View Card:

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca: When these two are involved, you know what you're getting: a likely three round battle to a decision that will more often than not be an exciting battle, both on the ground and standing. Both have lost to the same two fighters in recent years in Frankie Edgar and Sean Sherk, but Griffin should still be the better fighter here. Franca's coming off a bad knee injury and Griffin should be able to fight his fight and take the decision in this one.

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg: This is a night of returns and debuts, and Trigg is another one coming back to the Octagon after a long absence. Koscheck is looking to rebound from an upset loss to Paulo Thiago earlier this year. They're definitely similar fighters, with wrestling backgrounds and varying levels of striking ability. If Koscheck has gone back to basics a bit with his wrestling as well as his stand up since the Thiago fight, he should be the quicker and should be able to get back on the winning track. Trigg may surprise many here and send Koscheck further down the ladder, but "Kos" is ready for a breakout performance after finally getting fans on his side late last year, and he'll grab the second round TKO here.

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley: Daley takes one of the biggest fights of his career on short notice here in his UFC debut, stepping in for the injured Mike Swick. Kampmann needs a win to keep himself on track toward a Welterweight Title shot. He'll likely try to stand with Daley for a while, but find that Daley's a bit more dangerous than he'd like to subject himself to. It's then that he'll go try to get the fight to the ground. If he can do that, he will be have a large advantage, if not, Daley may steal this. He'll likely get it to the ground, however, and he'll end it in the second with some ground and pound for the TKO.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Junior Dos Santos: We've got a good heavyweight fight on our hands here. Can the Cro Cop of old make a return and run towards a Heavyweight Title shot? Is Dos Santos more than the real deal? We may get answers to these questions tomorrow night. Dos Santos is going to be an absolute game opponent, but I'm picking with my heart here in hoping to see Cro Cop get back to the top level of competition once again, but this time in the UFC. I'm picking Cro Cop to take the fight with a second round TKO.

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort: This is a great match up between two very experienced fighters. Franklin, despite losses to Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva in recent years, is one of the best fighters in the UFC, and one that never actually gets spoken in that breath with other top fighters. The theme again for this event is returns and debuts, as Belfort comes back to the Octagon for the first time since 2005. Belfort is coming off of two KO victories on the Affliction events, including an absolutely devastating destruction of Matt Lindland in January. But Rich Franklin's not Lindland or Terry Martin, and Vitor's not Anderson Silva. Rich has lost his killer instinct since his second loss to Anderson Silva, but he's still got all the tools to be a Champion once again. He'll need another very good performance here to get back into the picture at light heavyweight and begin his move up that ladder. Franklin takes the catchweight main event with a unanimous decision to cap off a long night of fights in Dallas.

For our betting contest picks, here's what I'm going with:

$200 on Lentz, $200 on Pokrajac, $300 on Cole Miller, $300 on Drwal.

Check back tomorrow night for our live round by round coverage of all the fights from the prelims on Spike to the pay-per-view event.