Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 75 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight predictions for "Barnett vs. Nelson" event
Sep 25, 2015 - 9:05:38 PM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 75 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight predictions for "Barnett vs. Nelson" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan on Saturday night, headlined by the heavyweight return of Josh Barnett. It's the kick-off to the UFC's "Go Big" schedule in the final quarter of this year, and kicks off a run of major fights over the next 100 days. Here's what's coming up on Saturday's main card:

Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson (Heavyweight): "The Warmaster" returns to the Octagon for his first fight in 21 months, and he's out to prove he still has what it takes to be a high end competitor in this sport. The 37-year-old got knocked out by Travis Browne in his last appearance, snapping a two-fight winning streak that included a first round win over Frank Mir in his UFC return in August of 2013.

The former "Babyfaced Assassin" is 10-2 since 2008, with his only other loss in that stretch coming to current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier in the finals of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. He's got knockout power, excellent grappling, and great submission skills, a combination which has kept him relevant while past steroid issues kept him out of the UFC.

On the other side of the cage will be Nelson, who is in desperate need of a bounce back following losses in four of his last five. He's picked up seven wins in the UFC, with all of those ending by TKO and six of them coming in the first round. It's that latter fact that points to one of his most significant issues, and that's an ability to fight effectively through three rounds, let alone five.

If he fails to finish an opponent in the first round, we've seen him get worn down significantly. He absorbs inhuman amounts of punishment more often than not, and finds ways to get to the final horn, but that'll be much harder in a five round matchup such as this.

Despite Barnett's KO loss to Travis Browne, his chin hasn't really been a liability for him. Indeed, the KO to Browne was his first stoppage loss by strikes since losing to Pedro Rizzo in 2001. He's likely to be able to take whatever Nelson wants to throw his way, and then it's just a matter of time from there for him to wear Nelson down. This should be Barnett's fight to lose. He's bigger, stronger, hits just as hard, and has a better chance of performing well down the stretch in a long fight. Barnett by TKO in the fourth round.


Gegard Mousasi vs. Uriah Hall (Middleweight): Mousasi and Hall are cut from the same cloth. They've got significant physical talent, and on occasion showcase flashes of brilliance, only to fail to keep that level of action consistent.

Mousasi's clearly the better, more established of the two, and I wouldn't say Hall is actually on his level, but they definitely have some similarities in regards to their performances themselves. Mousasi has excellent striking and a solid ground game, but for every performance the likes of what he had against Mark Munoz or Dan Henderson, he puts forth fights like he did against Ilir Latifi or Costas Philippou. He also has a tendency to fall short against a certain level of fighter, as we've seen in recent years with his losses to "Jacare" Souza and Lyoto Machida.

Hall's problems have seemed mainly mental, as he has faulty approaches to certain matchups, or fails to execute what he should be able to do in the cage against others. He's got power in his kicks and punches to the point where he has the potential to hurt Mousasi here, but it's probably more likely that we'll see him get picked apart in this one by the more technical striker in Mousasi.

This fight will either be quite entertaining or unbearably dull, and there may not be much in between that. I'm hoping for the former, and expect Mousasi to get the job done. Mousasi by TKO in the second round.


Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Chico Camus (Flyweight): Horiguchi did his best to try hanging with Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson in his last fight, but that title opportunity came before he was really ready for it. Camus put forth a valiant effort against Henry Cejudo in his second flyweight bout last time out, but it too was not enough for a win.

Both talented and entertaining flyweights, this one comes down to the fact that they're both pretty much known commodities. Camus is scrappy, and he's capable enough on the feet and on the ground to be a difficult fight for most. Horiguchi is a bit more skilled, a bit more technical, and overall does a lot of similar things, just better than Camus.

This should be a competitive fight, if only because Camus refuses to be taken out quickly or easily, and will make Horiguchi work for every advantage. Still, Horiguchi should prove better on the feet, and should do enough there with some grappling mixed in to win this one pretty clearly. Horiguchi by decision.


Takeya Mizugaki vs. George Roop (Bantamweight): One year ago, Mizugaki was preparing to step into one of the biggest fights of his career against a returning Dominick Cruz. A win on that UFC 178 card last Septemeber would have been his sixth straight and could have earned him a shot at the UFC Bantamweight Championship.

Unfortunately for the Japanese bantamweight, he was starched in a minute, and he followed that up with a submission loss to Aljamain Sterling in April of this year.

Roop, a fellow WEC vet to Mizugaki, has been consistently inconsistent throughout his Zuffa run. Since entering the Zuffa fold in 2008, Roop has never won or lost more than two fights in a row, and he enters this one after 14 months out of the cage. He was knocked out by Rob Font in his most recent appearance last July, and needs a win just as much as Mizugaki here.

He's dealt with layoffs in the past, but this seems like the type of matchup designed to get Mizugaki turned back around, and it's likely that's what we wind up seeing. It's another fight which could very well be competitive, but on their best days Mizugaki's the better fighter. Mizugaki by decision.


Diego Brandao vs. Katsunori Kikuno (Featherweight): Brandao's a violent headcase, but it's that first descriptor that gives him the edge here. Kikuno's had some significant success in his career, winning 23 of 32 career fights, but two of his last three have ended by KO.

Brandao consistently gasses out and leaves little in his tank after the first few minutes of a fight. However, he's got the kind of berserker-like striking ability to put people out quickly when he connects. I just don't trust the 33-year-old Kikuno's chin here, and unless he shows he can take punches, he's probably going out quick. Brandao by TKO in teh first round.


Mizuto Hirota vs. Teruto Ishihara (Featherweight): This is the finals of the "Road to UFC: Japan" series that's been airing in Japan and on UFC Fight Pass. Ishihara is the younger fighter coming in, and has thus far won seven of his nine career fights. He's also been competing at a lower weight class than Hirota for his career to this point, and will be considerably smaller than Hirota in this matchup.

Both fancy their striking games, and though Hirota's lost seven fights over a ten-year career, I think the size difference may play a real factor here. This one's a bit of a coin-toss, as Ishihara's young enough to show significant improvement, but as I think we'll see him move to bantamweight after this, Hirota's going to have a physical edge that allows him to score more through 15 minutes. Hirota by decision.