Penick's Take
UFC 191 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Dodson II" event
Sep 5, 2015 - 9:30:42 AM UFC 191 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Dodson II" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 191 is upon us tonight, and though it's gotten the short end of the stick as far as attention is concerned, especially given how much time was given to the next several months of fights during this card's event week. Unfortunately, Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson hasn't yet garnered the requisite respect for what he's been doing in the cage, and it seems that may continue into his rematch with John Dodson. However, the fight itself should be excellent, and the pay-per-view card itself, while not entirely stacked, remains mostly entertaining.

Here's what's on tap Saturday night:

Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson (UFC Flyweight Championship)

The fight these two had in 2012 was in some ways a microcosm of their respective styles. Johnson proved how well he adapts to whatever's thrown in front of him, while Dodson's fast start and fizzle as the bout went on is indicative of some of what has plagued him in the past.

For Dodson, all of his losses have come by decision, and in many of those, his failure to capitalize on opportunities, in combination with an unfortunate tendency to fade at least somewhat late in fights, has plagued him. Meanwhile, Johnson, while continuing to get better in every facet of the game, has shown himself to be one of the most intuitive and adaptable competitors in the sport.

One of the great things to witness in the reign of "Mighty Mouse" is just how much he's added to his overall game. There was a time when he was clearly talented, but hadn't seemed a completely unbeatable force. Since dropping to flyweight and dedicating himself solely to fighting, he's gotten nigh untouchable in the weight class. His speed makes him hard to hit, his takedown defense hard to take down, his chin hard to finish, and then he comes back with better than expected stopping power, great takedowns of his own, and slick submission skills.

The thing with Johnson as well is that he continues to get better. For a time, he wasn't preparing full time as a fighter. Since he's become Champion, that's changed, and with a full time focus on improving his skills, he's taken what was a ton of natural talent, and added as much hard work as any other fighter in the sport. That's made him such a dominant force, because no one's been able to come close to his skill set and effort in the cage. They just can't keep up.

That's where Dodson got himself caught up three years ago. He had some great offense through the opening rounds, but couldn't sustain that late. Johnson changed up his strategy on the fly, locking Dodson in close, and beating the hell out of him with knees in the clinch. It was a brutal late push back, and Dodson wasn't able to deal with it. Is that going to change? Can Dodson deliver more punishment than the first fight? It's entirely possible, but it's not a finish you can bank on. Dodson doing enough to win three rounds? That's just much more likely. I absolutely believe Dodson can win this fight, and it's not a massive upset if he pulls it off. However, I don't think it will actually happen.

PREDICTION: Johnson by decision


Andrei Arlovski vs. Frank Mir (Heavyweight)

Arlovski's excellent win over Travis Browne was at least in some part due to Browne's willingness to stand and trade with him. Mir's picked up a couple of wins in a row in similar fashion, though against markedly lesser strikers (at this point) than Arlovski.

This fight is somewhat of a last gasp for both men to work into title contention again. Whomever loses is unlikely to make another run, while the winner is at most a fight or two away from a shot at the champion. No one expected either to be in this spot just a couple of years ago, so this fight has a ton more meaning now than at any time since the early part of the 2000s.

Mir absolutely has power in his hands, but while he's become enamored with that part of his game at times, he remains a premier submission threat in the division. Arlovski's boxing game is as good as it ever was, and his chin has held up in recent years where it hadn't about four to five years ago.

This is one of those matchups that is entirely reliant on which fighter can make it their fight. Can Mir beat Arlovski standing? If not, can he get it to the ground where he has an edge? Can Arlovski stop Mir before it gets to the ground? Can he defend takedown attempts or simply beat Mir to the punch?

The answers to these and a few other questions may determine who walks out the victor in this one. It might come down to the better chin, and though I've picked against Arlovski enough that a win is all but assured here, I think Mir may be able to get it done.

PREDICTION: Mir by TKO in the second round


Anthony Johnson vs. Jimi Manuwa (Light Heavyweight)

Johnson continues to find himself in a mire of controversy, and the more things pile up the more his presence on the UFC roster could eventually become a liability. For now, he's still getting a chance to get back into the constantly shifting "mix," following a loss to Daniel Cormier for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Title in May.

The former welterweight found a new home at 205 lbs., and it brought him back to the UFC just a couple of short years ago. That he rapidly ascended to a title fight wasn't entirely surprising given his style, as he admittedly brings an aesthetically pleasing level of violence to the cage. It's his inability to keep that violence confined to the cage that makes him hard to root for.

As for Manuwa, the 35-year-old has been the beneficiary of some odd ends to fights in the Octagon to bring him a 4-1 overall mark. He did tons of damage to Kyle Kingsbury, but nearly let the Aussie back in the fight in his UFC debut, and needed a doctor's stoppage after the second round when he may have gone on to lose a decision. Injuries then felled his next two opponents, Cyrille Diabate and Ryan Jimmo, before he was demolished by Alexander Gustafsson. That stands as the only loss of his career, but he wasn't exactly inspiring in his return against Jan Blachowicz earlier this year.

What's interesting in this fight is that both fighters have remarkably similar tendencies. They both hit hard, often, and early, finding themselves somewhat in trouble against fighters who can take them down, tire them out, and win rounds. In Manuwa's case, that hasn't really led to losses, while it's been the big standout deficiency throughout Johnson's career.

This fight really shouldn't last all that long. Both fighters think they're the superior striker, they both want to finish this one early, and they both want to move on from there. In that scenario, Johnson's chin is much more trust-worthy, and if he finds a home on Manuwa's, this will be notch No. 2 in the "L" column for the Englishman.

PREDICTION: Johnson by TKO in the first round


Jan Blachowicz vs. Corey Anderson (Light Heavyweight)

Blachowicz's loss to Manuwa in April came in a fight that just wasn't all that good. Neither was highly effective, it wasn't very exciting, and it honestly wasn't in line with a lot of Blachowicz's prior performances.

However, Blachowicz turns around here for a fight with a much lesser opponent in Anderson. The key is to not let disappointment take hold when he was initially scheduled to fight "Rumble" Johnson.

Anderson won The Ultimate Fighter 19 tournament last spring by beating a not-very-good-at-all Matt Van Buren. He didn't look very good in his second UFC appearance, edging a decision over an inexperienced late replacement newcomer in Jason Jones, and then he got stopped by Gian Villante.

Blachowicz as an opponent is a lot closer to the Villante end of the spectrum, and may be a better fighter overall. He's got solid submission skills along with some heavy hands, and though he's not always a consistent finisher, a majority of his victories have seen him finish opponents before the final bell.

Anderson's a capable enough wrestler that he can slow this one down and make it difficult for Blachowicz to do what he wants to do. However, Blachowicz is a strong guy, a better striker, and a much, much better submission threat. If he can impose his game, he's winning this fight handily. If not, he might wind up getting ground out for two rounds and lose the decision.

PREDICTION: Blachowicz by submission in the second round


Paige VanZant vs. Alex Chambers (Women's Strawweight)

VanZant has been a fun and exciting fighter to watch through a couple of UFC appearances, but for some reason she's a ridiculously high betting favorite into this fight.

Chambers got into the sport much later, and she's 15 years the senior of VanZant, so the experience gap isn't wide at all. VanZant absolutely has a higher upside, and as the much younger fighter her skillset will likely improve at a higher rate than Chambers. Still, the Australian shouldn't be counted out entirely.

With that said, VanZant has shown entertaining grappling skills, she's got good ground and pound, and is improving her striking game. Chambers is resilient, and as she showed against Kailin Curran in her last outing can pull off a submission in desperation.

This one remains a showcase for VanZant, and she should win, but be wary of placing too much betting faith in VanZant with the odds where they are.

PREDICTION: VanZant by decision