Penick's Take
UFC ON FOX 16 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Dillashaw vs. Barao II" card
Jul 24, 2015 - 12:15:26 PM UFC ON FOX 16 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Dillashaw vs. Barao II" card

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to Chicago on Saturday night with another event on Fox, the third year in a row they've aired on network television from the United Center. It's also the first time they've had a title on the line on network TV in a while, with T.J. Dillashaw once again facing the man whom he beat to capture the UFC Bantamweight Championship, Renan Barao.

Here's what's coming up on Saturday's main card:

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao (Bantamweight Championship): Given how one-sided their first fight was last May, the UFC's decision last year to attempt an immediate rematch didn't make sense. Of course, it all went to hell, Dillashaw beat Joe Soto on a day's notice, and Barao returned in an effective, if flawed, effort against Mitch Gagnon in December.

Prior to the DIllashaw fight, Barao had looked phenomenal, and was on one of the best runs of any fighter in the sport. Of course, running into someone who may have an edge on you can grind things to a halt, and Dillashaw managed that with a fast and superior striking game.

More than a year later, how much has changed? Dillashaw got banged up a little bit, pushing this fight to Saturday from April, while Barao enters with a chip on his shoulder and more to prove than at any other point of his career. Dillashaw has a very well rounded skill set, mixing in strikes with a good wrestling game and solid submission instincts, and his ability to finish fights is a significant asset. Barao has stopping power, very good submissions, and he's physically imposing in this weight class.

All of that is to say that they're coming into this without much difference from where they were last year. Maybe they've tightened up their skills a little bit, but neither is likely to have made significant strides anywhere. For Barao, that means he has to go out to prove that his performance in the first fight was an aberration. For Dillashaw, he has to prove that it wasn't. Only one of them can be right in Chicago, and I think Dillashaw gets it done again. Dillashaw by TKO in the third round.


Miesha Tate vs. Jessica Eye (Women's Bantamweight): Tate is trying to work her way into a third fight with Ronda Rousey, while Eye wants to prove herself worthy of her own shot against the long-reigning Women's Bantamweight Champion.

There isn't an area of Tate's game that is outright bad. She's more than adequate in several aspects, and very good in others. Her striking continues to improve, though it's far from dominant, while her wrestling and ground and pound have always been a strength. She has to control the pace and tone of the fight early to establish what she wants to do, because when she's in control she's at her best.

Eye has continued to improve her stand up game, and she busted Leslie Smith up badly on the feet before finally exploding Smith's cauliflower ear to force a doctor's stoppage. However, in her prior two UFC bouts, she got into similar style fights where she lost the exchanges, leading to the Smith win being the first for her in the Octagon.

This should be a fairly close and competitive fight. Neither really stand out at a much higher level than the other, and each have ways to control how this fight will go. I think the veteran in Tate winds up doing more overall through the 15-minute fight. Tate by decision.


Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder (Lightweight): While this is certainly a lesser option on the card than having an Anthony Pettis fight in any iteration, this is a fight that guarantees fireworks, and it should be real fun to watch.

Barboza's been a little bit of a headcase at times, as he's put together several strong performances, only to fail to keep the momentum going at crucial times. This is a bounce back fight after his loss to Michael Johnson, and he has to utilize his varied and flashy striking game in order to get past Felder, who will be looking to very much do the same.

At 10-0, Felder has scored seven of those wins by some form of knockout, and he showed just how much power he has with a sick spinning back fist over Danny Castillo in his last fight in January. He's not much of a ground threat, but Barboza isn't likely looking to take it there anyway.

This is bound to be a slug fest, which means Barboza's chin needs to stand up if he's going to pull this one off. He's been cracked a few too many times to be wholly confident in him, but he's got such power himself that it's going to be a dangerous and exciting firefight no matter what. If both can avoid going down, this could be a wild back and forth for its duration. Barboza by decision.


Joe Lauzon vs. Takanori Gomi (Lightweight): Another fight between a pair of exciting lightweights. Lauzon and Gomi are both trying to prove that they remain relevant in this sport in 2015, and they have to go through the other to make that point emphatically.

Lauzon has won more bonuses than any other fighter in UFC history because he consistently goes for broke be it on the ground or in his still very good submission game. He's stumbled a bit in recent years, losing three of his last five, but he can still compete, and is far from an easy out for anyone.

"The Fireball Kid" isn't so much a kid anymore, as the now-36 year old tried to pick up his fourth UFC win following a TKO loss to Myles Jury last September. He's certainly not the fighter he once was, but Gomi still possesses power in his hands, and a good overall game. He's not going to make it easy on Lauzon, and given the damage Lauzon's taken in recent fights - even in victory - this may be a rough night for him. That said, it's a bit of a coin flip, because Gomi's another of those fighters with too many lingering issues to fully trust. Gomi by TKO in the second round.