Penick's Take
UFC 189 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "McGregor vs. Mendes" event
Jul 10, 2015 - 4:20:22 PM UFC 189 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "McGregor vs. Mendes" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Despite the loss of Jose Aldo from tomorrow's UFC 189 card, the event remains poised to be one of the biggest of the year. Chad Mendes as a replacement doesn't bring the anticipation of the Aldo-Conor McGregor matchup, it's still a highly intriguing matchup in its own right, with palpable heat between the two. The rest of the main card remains quite interesting as well, and is among the strongest pay-per-view main cards the UFC's had in some time. Here's what's on tap tomorrow night in Las Vegas:


Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes (Interim UFC Featherweight Championship)

There's a segment of analysis on this fight focusing too hard on the fact that Conor McGregor hasn't fought a wrestler in the UFC, as if that negates what he has done thus far inside the Octagon. Sure, he hasn't fought anyone with the type of skill set that Mendes brings into the cage, but there aren't very many fighters on the roster who could accurately be compared to Mendes on that front, either.

McGregor's striking is a unique animal. He models some of his stances after animal movements, and he shows little to no fear for what his opponents aim to do on the feet. His takedown defense is quite solid, though again he hasn't faced a foe with significant takedown offense the likes of which Mendes brings. Still, he's deceptively strong, utilizes his reach extremely well, and catches opponents off guard when he engages. He's methodical, but when he fires off strikes he does so at a rapid-fire pace.

Despite being the shorter fighter, Mendes is wholly capable of negating the reach issue on the feet. He's as fast or faster than anyone else in the division, and he mixes things up extremely well. While his wrestling game is certainly a big part of what he can do, he's not going to be afraid to throw strikes with McGregor, either. He's got very heavy hands, solid technique, and can do a ton of damage when he lands.

Where Mendes becomes most dangerous is in his ability to switch things up on the fly. He can add in takedowns in unpredictable spots, and his timing is fantastic. Once on the ground, he's got very good ground and pound, and though it hasn't been a part of his game, he's versed enough in submissions by virtue of his work with Team Alpha Male.

The question here becomes whether or not McGregor's takedown defense is enough to keep from getting planted on his back, and whether or not he's able to out-strike Mendes the same way Jose Aldo (barely) managed to do. It's possible he surprises doubters and beats Mendes on Saturday night, setting up what may be an even bigger fight with Aldo by the time it happens. I just have a hard time seeing that becoming a reality, and the longer this fight goes, the more likely it is that Mendes takes the win.

PREDICTION: Mendes via TKO in the third round


Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald (UFC Welterweight Championship)

At his best, Rory MacDonald is a significant talent capable of beating anyone in the UFC's welterweight field. He's got a power in his hands, fantastic ground and pound, and solid submission skills. Also, his finishing instincts when he's on point are excellent as well.

However, we've seen him on a number of occasions fail to live up to expectations, including in his first fight with Lawler. He fought tentatively against Jake Ellenberger, and didn't look great against either Demian Maia or Tyron Woodley despite winning those fights. He's got a tendency to let his naturally calm and collected demeanor spill over into his performances a bit much, which negatively affects how good he can be.

As for Lawler, he's been as consistent as any point in his career since returning to the UFC and the welterweight division. He's always had great striking, but for numerous reasons he found himself getting out-worked, allowing himself to get taken down, and failing to do much about it.

That's a danger for him into this fight. MacDonald has a vicious top game, and he's stronger than he may look. He's also got very good combinations, and again, at his best, utilizes his striking game quite well.

Lawler managed to actually out-wrestle MacDonald in their first fight, which was one of the more surprising aspects of that fight. That was still almost not enough, as he squeaked by with a split decision in that fight.

Given Lawler also faded late in both of his fights with Johny Hendricks, he could find himself in trouble if he's not able to land a knock down blow on the Canadian challenger. The more thought goes into this matchup, the more it seems like MacDonald is poised to capture the belt. Still, he has to be on his game start to finish, and put forth the best he's capable of in order to take that title. I think he gets it done.

PREDICTION: MacDonald via submission in the fourth round


Jeremy Stephens vs. Dennis Bermudez (Featherweight)

Bermudez had a seven-fight winning streak snapped in his last outing, running into a man in Ricardo Lamas capable of exploiting his main weakness on the ground. Jeremy Stephens doesn't represent that type of fighter.

While Stephens is a savvy veteran who has had some success down at featherweight, he's slower than Bermudez, and that plays to his detriment here.

If it stays on the feet, Bermudez has the speed and combinations to pop in and out with multiple strikes while avoiding the knockout blow Stephens is sure to be seeking. Bermudez has good offensive wrestling, and though Stephens isn't easy to take down, it's something Bermudez may be able to mix in throughout the fight as well.

I think Bermudez's skill set works well against Stephens, and he's much more likely to win two rounds from Stephens while his chin keeps him from getting in too much trouble on the feet.

PREDICTION: Bermudez via decision


Gunnar Nelson vs. Brandon Thatch (Welterweight)

This fight is such a fantastic replacement bout it's a surprise it wasn't the originally scheduled bout for each of them on this card. Nelson ran into a road block in Rick Story last fall for his first loss, with Thatch doing the same against Benson Henderson on late notice in February.

The difference between their respective main event losses is that Thatch wasn't the main event until a month before the UFC Fight Night 60 card, and got an opponent switch for his first five round fight just two weeks out from the card. Thatch is violence incarnate, and though he faded a bit and got submitted late by Henderson, he's got the type of striking game that most should fear.

Nelson is a very good grappler, and his wrestling and submission game can make him a nightmare for most. If Thatch can avoid being taken down, thus negating his vicious striking, he can win this one on the feet. If Nelson's chin holds up, and he can get Thatch to the ground, he can finish this on the ground.

It's one of those classic striker vs. grappler matchups, and it comes down to who can do what they would like to do more effectively. Throwing a flier on Thatch, but Nelson is entirely capable of finishing this one.

PREDICTION: Thatch via TKO in the first round


Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida (Bantamweight)

This is a showcase fight for the fantastic young Brazilian. Pickett is being led to the slaughter in what could wind up being his final appearance in the UFC.

Almeida's got a vicious striking game; his speed and combinations are a treat to watch, and he showcased that against one of Pickett's fellow WEC vets in Yves Jabouin last time out.

Pickett's always had a great chin and a ton of heart, but that chin has started to fade in the last several years, and it would be shocking if it held up for him this time around. The question now is whether Almeida hands Pickett his first TKO loss in over a decade, or whether he simply hurts him before submitting him as we've seen happen to Pickett a few other times. I'm going to go with the more newsworthy finish.

PREDICTION: Almeida via TKO in the second round