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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
UFC Fight Night 70 hits Fox Sports 1 tomorrow night with a very different lineup than it had just eight days ago. Visa issues struck several fights off the docket, but thankfully the fantastic main event between Yoel Romero and Lyoto Machida remains intact. Let's take a look at what the main card is bringing us:
Lyoto Machida vs. Yoel Romero (Middleweight): This is one of those crossroads type fights, with Machida inching out of title relevance as Romero tries to stake his claim for a spot. A win for either man is huge at this stage of their respective careers, so there's a ton on the line tonight.
Machida got beat up pretty badly against Luke Rockhold only two short months ago, so it's hard to know how well he can respond on such a quick turnaround. He's always capable of competing, but after getting a bit manhandled by a strong grappler, he's got another staring him down.
With that said, Romero hasn't really relied on his fantastic wrestling game a ton during his MMA career. More than many who have transitioned from that sport, Romero's has picked up striking quite well, and is more likely to knock his opponents out on the feet than bring them to the ground. He's got excellent power, and as he showed against Tim Kennedy, he's capable of delivering the knockout blow at any time.
For as much as Machida's fight with Rockhold must be taken into account, things look better for him when you take that Romero-Kennedy fight into consideration as well. Machida's got the type of striking game that can wear a fighter down, especially over a five round fight, and the way Romero got tagged and with how he looked in between the second and third rounds of the Kennedy fight, he could be in trouble if this goes past ten minutes.
Machida has to avoid the power strikes from Romero, and he can't let himself get bullied around as he was against Rockhold. If he can settle things down, land his strikes early, and make Romero fight as hard as possible, he could very well wear him down to take over a bit late. I won't be surprised if Romero shuts him down and takes him out after the Rockhold fight, but given how we've never seen him handled that badly, I can't expect it to happen twice in a row. I think Machida bounces back here in a good fight. Machida by TKO in the fourth round.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Lorenz Larkin (Welterweight): Former light heavyweight Larkin looked fantastic in his welterweight debut in January, starching John Howard to snap a three fight losing skid. With the exception of a brutal first round loss to Costas Philippou, Larkin's had trouble mostly with with opponents who are able to slow things down in the clinch or who are able to take him down to grind him out. He's got solid takedown defense, but has faltered at times on that front.
However, while Ponzinibbio's got some of that to his game, he's fairly well rounded, and may be more willing to exchange with Larkin than some past opponents. Ponzinibbio's looked quite solid in his three fight UFC run, losing a decision to Ryan LaFlare in an ok fight in his debut before knocking out Wendell Oliveira and beating Sean Strickland.
This is a competitive matchup. If we see Larkin come out like he did against Howard, I like his chances quite a bit. However, his inconsistency doesn't breed total confidence, so it also wouldn't be surprising to see Ponzinibbio take this either. We're probably in for a competitive fight, but let's see some fireworks from one of the few fights that stayed together on the card. Larking by TKO in the first round.
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Eddie Gordon (Middleweight): A pair of Ultimate Fighter winners square off here, with Carlos Junior making his debut in the UFC's middleweight division. Neither guy has been all that impressive thus far in the Octagon, so it's important for both to get a bounce back win.
Carlos Junior won the heavyweight tourney in the third season of "TUF: Brazil," but did so in a dull fight. He followed that up with a drop to the light heavyweight division, where he was smothered by Patrick Cummins for much of that 15 minute bout.
Gordon had a better showing in his Ultimate Fighter win, taking out Dhiego Lima in the first round of the 19th season's middleweight finals. However, he was subsequently knocked out by Josh Samman before costing himself a decision against Chris Dempsey his next time out as well.
Of the two, Carlos Junior has more upside, but Gordon's got the type of wrestling game which could stifle him as Cummins did. Still, with Carlos Junior's grappling ability, he could prove to be a better overall fighter, provided the weight cut doesn't deplete him much. If Gordon fades in this one as he did against Samman and Dempsey, I think he could be in trouble. Carlos Junior by submission in the third round.
Thiago Santos vs. Steve Bosse (Middleweight): Bosse finally makes his UFC debut after briefly retiring from the sport and getting tapped to replace "Rampage" Jackson in April, only to have Jackson take that spot back. The former semi-pro hockey player was primarily an enforcer on the ice, so the transition to MMA was a natural fit. Though 33-years-old and likely not long for the sport, he makes his debut with a 10-1 career record, a mark that includes eight straight wins and eight (T)KO victories overall.
There's no question what he'll try to do against Santos, who is likely to oblige him with a striking battle. Though the Brazilian has some ground skills, he's more striking oriented in his approach, and he's picked up a couple of brutal wins courtesy of body strikes inside the Octagon.
This one's likely to be a bit of a brawl, but given Bosse's drop to middleweight, his retirement last year and overall recent inactivity, this is a fight the more active Santos should win. Santos by TKO in the second round.
Hacran Dias vs. Levan Makashvili (Featherweight): Makashvili stepped in as an injury replacement here following a split decision win in his UFC debut last month. He's taking on a solid vet in Dias, looking for his second straight win.
Makashvili's got a good grappling game, but didn't do a ton with it in the win over Mark Eddiva. Dias defeated Darren Elkins his last time out, snapping a two fight losing streak to top ten guys in Nik Lentz and Ricardo Lamas.
Both present similar styles, and both kind of offset one another in their skill sets. This should be competitive, but may not be all that exciting. It's going to be a close one, and will determine just where Makashvili sits in the division at 26-years-old. Dias by decision.
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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