Penick's Take
UFC 188 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Velasquez vs. Werdum" event
Jun 13, 2015 - 11:15:22 AM UFC 188 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Velasquez vs. Werdum" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Mexico City gets their second UFC event tonight, and in the Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum main event they've got a fight they were hoping to see last November. Velasquez steps back into the cage for the first time in 20 months, hoping to re-establish himself as the alpha dog in the heavyweight division, while the co-main event finally brings Gilbert Melendez and Eddie Alvarez into the cage together. Let's break down the main card.

Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum (Heavyweight Championship)

Velasquez at his best is a complete beast; his work in the clinch can be devastating, as even those who have stopped his takedowns have found themselves taking tons of damage up against the fence. He's got knockout power in his hands, but it's his relentless clinch work and absolutely brutal ground and pound that have set him apart from the field.

Werdum has always been one of the sport's top submission specialists, but he's gotten to the elite level by adding a ton to his striking arsenal. His jiu jitsu game is excellent, and he's capable of catching just about anyone if the opportunity arises, but in the past his striking game wasn't his biggest strength despite a couple of TKO victories. He turned a corner with that upon his return to the Octagon, as his three round beating of Roy Nelson was done primarily on the feet, and he followed that up with a first round finish of Mike Russow. Though he absorbed some big strikes against Mark Hunt, he caught him with a brutal knee in the second to finish that fight.

From a matchup standpoint, Velasquez at his best has the skillset to beat Werdum, and do so violently. Knowing the dangers of Werdum's ground game, Velasquez is likely to keep this fight standing, and to do his damage up against the cage. Werdum has to keep his distance to get his strikes in, and if he can get to the ground with Velasquez he needs to avoid the damage the Champ is capable of delivering.

The question for tonight is how much have a 20 month layoff and multiple injuries affected Velasquez's ability to employ his strategy? Werdum is very capable of winning this fight, as he's got enough power in his strikes to hurt Velasquez, and he's got the submission game to catch him on the ground. However, Velasquez's ability to keep things in the clinch and do a ton of damage there could be a trump card even if he's not at his best. For as much as I see a potential victory for Werdum, Velasquez is just a difficult opponent to get past.

PREDICTION: Velasquez via decision


Gilbert Melendez vs. Eddie Alvarez (Lightweight)

Melendez's UFC career hasn't really gone to plan thus far. A close decision loss to Benson Henderson and a submission loss to Anthony Pettis in title fights sandwich an entertaining yet inconsequential victory over Diego Sanchez. Add in a closer-than-it-was-expected-to-be final Strikeforce bout with Josh Thomson, and it'd be easy to suggest his skills aren't as sharp as they were a few years back.

The same can be said of Alvarez, whose UFC debut saw him get staggered a bit and fail to score much effective offense en route to a decision loss. He tends to be better in five round fights, as his cardio and toughness have been key in some of his best performances.

Melendez has a solid boxing game, good wrestling, and very good ground and pound. He's hard to hurt, he's fast, and quite adept at making his opponents miss. As for Alvarez, he can be a bit wild at times, and it gets him into trouble. He's not afraid to get hit in order to land strikes of his own, and he can recover better than most, but in a three round fight that's tough to overcome.

This should be a competitive and probably entertaining fight, but it's hard to have confidence in Alvarez given how he's been tagged in recent fights and the fact that he doesn't have the same amount of time afforded to him to recover.

PREDICTION: Melendez via decision


Kelvin Gastelum vs. Nate Marquardt (Middleweight)

Gastelum was forced to make this move back to middleweight after a bad week in January into UFC 183. He'd looked increasingly impressive prior to his bad weight cut and a rougher fight with Tyron Woodley, and he'll be out to bounce back with a much better showing here.

Marquardt's on his last legs in the UFC, having lost three of four since coming back following a brief run in Strikeforce. Though he continues to have stopping ability, as evidenced by his win over James Te Huna last year, he's not quite as dangerous as he's been in the past.

Gastelum's got a great wrestling game, with really good instincts on the ground. His striking isn't yet a strength, but it continues to come along fairly well, and without getting drained with a bad weight cut this week he's likely to be quite effective. Given Marquardt hasn't been submitted in almost 12 years, it would be unlikely for Gastelum to find a submission, but he can dominate for three rounds, or potentially find a ground and pound stoppage.

PREDICTION: Gastelum via decision


Yair Rodriguez vs. Charles Rosa (Featherweight)

Rodriguez won the featherweight tournament in first season of "The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America" last year, taking a decision over Leonardo Morales at UFC 180. He's only got five career fights under his belt, and though he's picked up some stoppage wins in that run, he's not bringing an overly dangerous skillset for someone on Rosa's level.

Taking his UFC debut fight on short notice against a longtime vet in Dennis Siver, Rosa had an exciting back and forth fight en route to a decision loss. He was even more impressive in his second outing, submitting Sean Soriano in January.

While Rodriguez is decently well rounded, Rosa's a finisher with a very good ground game. He's the better fighter, and he should put on another impressive performance here.

PREDICTION: Rosa via submission in the first round


Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill (Women's Strawweight)

Hill's got a good striking base, but she's coming into just her third professional fight here against a well rounded and very tough fighter in Torres.

Technically undefeated, Torres had some trouble during the TUF tournament, suffering an upset loss against Randa Markos and a decision loss against Carla Esparza. She bounced back with a decision win over Angela Magana on the Finale card, and likely expects to continue that run here.

While Hill does possess some solid striking skills, the grappling isn't quite there, and Torres can mix in strikes and wrestling decently well. It's not the greatest fight for a pay-per-view card, but I expect Torres to pull out the victory.

PREDICTION: Torres via decision