Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 68 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Boetsch vs. Henderson" main card
Jun 6, 2015 - 12:35:50 PM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 68 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Boetsch vs. Henderson" main card

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC Fight Night 68 hits New Orleans tonight with one of the poorer main events of the year, an event feeling the ramifications of Jon Jones' actions. With Daniel Cormier pulled from the card and the UFC unable to find a suitable replacement to face Ryan Bader, we've got Dan Henderson trying to prove he should get to fight out his contract when he takes on Tim Boetsch.

To be fair, the undercard is pretty solid, and there are several fights more intriguing then the one getting five rounds. Here's what's coming tonight on the Fox Sports 1 main card:


Tim Boetsch vs. Dan Henderson (Middleweight): It's telling that Henderson is getting second billing in this one. There's something not quite right and yet completely appropriate about that. It was only three short years ago that Henderson was getting ready to fight for a UFC Title one last time. An injury took that Jon Jones bout off the table, and since returning in February of 2013, he's lost five of six fights.

The worst part about that stretch for Henderson is that he's taken a significant amount of damage in the last four fights in a row. He had close fights with Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, but the knockout loss to Vitor Belfort started this current stretch. He was knocked down and nearly stopped by "Shogun" Rua before managing to knock Rua out himself, but then he got trucked by Daniel Cormier en route to a submission loss in his next fight, and got stopped by Gegard Mousasi. While he himself doesn't want to credit much to the Mousasi fight, seeing it as an early stoppage, it was still yet another knockdown in a fairly short period of time.

Henderson's had a historically fantastic chin, but that's an aspect of a fighter's game that almost always starts to leave as their career wears on, especially after it's been tagged several fights in a row. It's not healthy to take the type of damage he's taken as of late, and he's facing down brain trauma with every additional minute he's in the cage.

Tim Boetsch enters this fight with the power to cause said damage but off four losses in his last six fights as well. However, where Henderson's been taken out by strikers and strong wrestlers as of late, Boetsch's deficiencies have been shown mostly on the ground. He's been bullied around and submitted by a couple of talented middleweight grapplers in Thales Leites and Luke Rockhold in his last two fights, but that's absolutely not something he needs to worry about against Henderson right now.

Henderson is always going to look for the big right hand, and Boetsch is as susceptible as any fighter to get stopped if it lands. However, Henderson's overall offensive output has decreased in recent years, and it's an area where Boetsch can take advantage. Boetsch isn't known as a speed guy, but he may be able to move a little more effectively than Henderson to avoid the right hand. If he can do that, he's got the striking power and the wrestling strength to make this ugly and seek his own finish. I'm not expecting much from either guy, but I continue to worry about Henderson's health. He might be able to sustain things with a win here, as Boetsch is beatable, but if he gets caught, I don't know if the chin is there to stay in it. Boetsch via TKO in the second round.


Ben Rothwell vs. Matt Mitrione (Heavyweight): In his last four victories in the UFC, Matt Mitrione has needed a combined total of seven minutes and 58 seconds to finish them. He's got significant finishing power at any point in a fight, and though he's now been finished a couple of times himself, a fire fight favors his hands.

Now, Rothwell's got a hell of a chin, and over the last decade has only been stopped by strikes against Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez. He's also stopped three of his last four opponents. However, in a bit of a unique note between the two of them, they've each finished an opponent who last beat the other man. For Mitrione, he knocked out Gabriel Gonzaga - who submitted Rothwell in 2013 - in December, while Rothwell has a KO win over Brendan Schaub, who submitted Mitrione that same year.

Given Rothwell's riding a high off his win over Alistair Overeem last September, I'm expecting a violent matchup that likely doesn't make it past the first round. In that style, both fighters are capable of winning this fight, and it may simply be a matter of which one of them lands the bigger strike fastest. I think Mitrione may bring a tougher first round than Overeem gave Rothwell last September, and I wouldn't be surprised if he made it four straight here. Mitrione via TKO in the first round.


Dustin Poirier vs. Yancy Medeiros (Lightweight): I've always liked Poirier's overall game, and it seems lightweight's a more natural fit for him at this point. He's got a really good striking game, and a sneaky submission game as well, although he's shown himself slightly vulnerable to both styles in a couple of fights.

However, while Medeiros represents a very talented lightweight in his own right, I'm not sure he's the same threat Conor McGregor was on the feet, or that Chan Sung Jung was with his overall game. The Hawaiian has looked very good in his last two fights, but Poirier's significantly better than Damon Jackson and Joe Proctor.

Poirier's out to continue proving a point in the lightweight division, and I think he'll be faster and stronger than Medeiros in this one. If he can stagger Medeiros, I think he'll find a spot in which he can take advantage. Poirier via submission in the second round.


Thiago Tavares vs. Brian Ortega (Featherweight): Ortega's impressive UFC debut was negated by the fact that he failed a drug test following the bout, and this is his first fight back since then. While undefeated, and coming in as the taller fighter with a significant reach advantage, his striking game isn't exactly his strong suit, and he's going to have a hell of a time on the ground with the very strong Tavares.

Tavares has been caught a few times in the lightweight division, but again, Ortega's striking isn't where he's most comfortable, and this is likely to turn into a ground battle. Tavares is going to be more than happy to fight that style of fight, and he's got the strength and superior jiu jitsu game. This could wind up as a close, competitive battle on the ground, but I give Tavares the edge either way. Tavares via submission in the second round.


Joe Soto vs. Anthony Birchak (Bantamweight): Soto had an admirable showing against Champ T.J. Dillashaw in his UFC debut last summer, and he's getting the opponent he was supposed to fight on that UFC 177 card. Nothing's changed in the matchup since then; Birchak was submitted in his delayed debut in December, and though he's got a decently well rounded game, Soto's the better fighter everywhere, and should be able to prove why he finally got brought into the UFC to begin with. Soto via submission in the first round.


Francisco Rivera vs. Alex Caceres (Bantamweight): Both fighters were on solid runs before running into road blocks in the division. Rivera was beaten by Takeya Mizugaki in a close fight, then lost to Urijah Faber by submission after an unfortunate eye poke. Caceres lost to Faber himself, then dropped a surprising decision to Masanori Kanehara.

Caceres has surprised at times by looking better than expected, but he's got a ceiling. Rivera's loss to Faber is a slight outlier, and though he lost to Mizugaki it wasn't a blowout. One of the issues for Rivera here is that Caceres hasn't really struggled against strikers as much as he has submission specialists, so if Rivera fails to find that knockdown strike or fails to hurt Caceres significantly on the feet, Caceres will be in the fight start to finish.

I'd expect this fight to be fairly competitive because of that, as Caceres has a decent striking game and some pretty good grappling skills. Rivera has the power, and absolutely can stop the fight if he can catch Caceres. Failing that, he needs to have a high enough output to take a couple of the rounds in this one. Regardless, it should be entertaining for however long it winds up lasting. Rivera by TKO in the second round.