Penick's Take
UFC 186 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Horiguchi" event
Apr 24, 2015 - 9:20:50 PM UFC 186 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Horiguchi" event

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

A tumultuous month and a half has led to Saturday's UFC 186 card selling less than 6,000 tickets as of Thursday, meaning it will by a massive margin the lowest-drawing card the organization's had in Montreal. It's unlikely to do much better on pay-per-view, as Flyweight Champ Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson is unfortunately just not a draw for the organization, though Rampage Jackson getting back on the card this week may help boost it a little bit.

The main card is simply not up to the level of any other pay-per-view card so far this year, and is worse than some of the free cards the UFC has put on. That's not to say the card will be devoid of action, as there are a few fighters who could have some stand out performances. It's just more than likely going to happen in front of the smallest UFC audience in a long time.

With that in mind, here's what's on tap for the main card in Montreal:


Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (Flyweight Championship): The UFC Flyweight Champion is competing at a completely higher level than everyone else in the division. He's gotten better since becoming Champion, as he was finally able to shift to being a full-time fighter. It's shown in his performances, as he's finished three of five title challengers, while scoring clear decision wins over John Dodson and a drug-using Ali Bagautinov.

Horiguchi is getting this title fight by default because John Lineker can't make weight, and though he's been impressive at times thus far in his young MMA career, the 24-year-old is getting this shot before he's really ready for it.

The Japanese competitor is fast, very fast, but I don't think he's faster than the Champ. He's strong, but I don't think he's stronger than the Champ. He hits hard, but the Champ has improved in that area. He's got a decent ground game, but the Champ excels there.

Stylistically it's just a very tough matchup for the challenger. Johnson's shown an ability to take some big shots in the past, so whatever Horiguchi might be able to throw at him early isn't likely to take him out. Given a significant cardio edge for the Champ as well, and it all adds up to another convincing victory for "Mighty Mouse." Now Horiguchi's never been stopped, and isn't going to be an "easy" out for Johnson, but there's no reason to believe the upset is happening on Saturday night. Johnson by submission in the fourth round


Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Fabio Maldonado (Light Heavyweight): Rampage returns to the UFC for the first time since his back to back decision losses to Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira. That came after a loss to Jon Jones for the title, and those matchups were a big factor in his discontent.

Back in Bellator, he got a couple of fights that played more into the style he wanted to employ, though his final bout for that organization was back in the vein of his fights with Bader and Teixeira in the fight with Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal.

Jackson wants to have a straight up striking brawl. He thinks that's the most exciting for fans, and hopes to avoid facing much in the way of wrestling. Maldonado's more than likely fine with that idea, as he likes to engage in that style no matter how many brain cells he leaves in the cage.

Maldonado's penchant for getting into firefights is his downfall in this matchup. He's going to be looking to strike with Jackson, and though Rampage isn't the fighter he used to be, this is the style of fight in which he can still excel. Jackson by TKO in the second round


Michael Bisping vs. C.B. Dollaway (Middleweight): Dollaway was trying to make an entrance into the top end of the division in December when he fought Lyoto Machida, but a brutal body kick brought him back down to Earth. Bisping's been just on the outside of the elite in the division for a long time, beating the fighters he's better than while falling to those simply better than him.

Dollaway's in a bit of an interesting spot in that regard. He's certainly not a Luke Rockhold, Tim Kennedy, or Vitor Belfort, but prior to the Machida loss he had been fighting very well against some solid competition.

The problem Dollaway has is that the areas in which he finds success are a bit negated by Bisping's game. He's a better grappler than striker, but he's not massively strong in his grappling game, while Bisping is not easy to take and keep down. Bisping has shown he can get hit and get hurt on the feet in recent years, but Dollaway isn't a great striker despite his KO win over Cezar Ferreira.

Bisping should be able to do damage on the feet while avoiding too much offense from Dollaway, and I think he walks away the winner in this one. Bisping by decision


John Makdessi vs. Shane Campbell (Lightweight): Makdessi returns for the first time since February of last year, and he's taking on another striking-centric competitor in the newcomer Campbell.

The debuting fighter enters the Octagon as an injury replacement for Abel Trujillo, but comes in with significant combat sports experience. The former kickboxer has posted an 11-2 record in MMA, and has scored stoppage wins in seven of his eleven MMA victories.

Makdessi's got a penchant for spinning attacks, though he's had trouble being a consistent finisher in his UFC run thus far. For every highlight-reel win, Makdessi's had some less than stellar performances, and that's reflected by some closer fights in victory and defeat. This is a fight that could have easily taken place on the prelims, and it's kind of a wild card.

This one depends a bit on just how good Campbell is. He's got the background to come in and beat Makdessi, but Makdessi might be able to beat him in a firefight as well. More of a coin flip than perhaps expected. Makdessi by decision.


Yves Jabouin vs. Thomas Almeida (Bantamweight): The 23-year-old Almeida is a significant prospect at 135 lbs., and he looked good in his UFC debut against Tim Gorman despite going to a decision for the first time in his career. He's getting a chance to prove where exactly he's at in the division right now against the durable vet in Jabouin.

Almeida entered the UFC with a 17-0 record, having stopped 13 opponents by strikes with four submissions as well. His striking game is quite excellent, but he's got talent in his ground game as well.

Jabouin is a tough, well-rounded veteran who has faced a who's who of competition throughout his UFC and WEC run. That said, he's not excellent in any one area, and has been stopped seven times in his MMA career. There's too much talent from Almeida to deny, and while Jabouin will make it tough on him, I think he's got it in himself to find a finish in this one. Almeida by TKO in the second round