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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
Though UFC on Fox 15's co-main event isn't anywhere near the fight we were supposed to be getting, the main event remains as good as we've gotten for a free TV card in quite some time. Here's what we've got coming up on the main card:
Luke Rockhold vs. Lyoto Machida (Middleweight)
Since his UFC debut loss to Vitor Belfort, Luke Rockhold has looked absolutely fantastic, taking out both Costas Philippou and Tim Boetsch in the first round before beating up Michael Bisping and submitting him in the second. This is a leap up in competition from those fights, but Rockhold's considerable talents should still be on display here.
Lyoto Machida is a known commodity at this point. He's a fantastic counter-striker, he's hard to hit, hard to takedown, and he makes fighters pay for their aggression more often than not. Chris Weidman managed to out-work Machida for three of five rounds last July, but it was as hard a fight as the current Champ has ever had, and that's what Machida promises to be for Rockhold as well.
This is a statement fight for each of them. If Rockhold can continue what he's been doing lately, hurt Machida early, keep the pressure on, and score a late stoppage, he'll solidify his shot at the UFC Middleweight Title. But Machida's always got that knockout power, and he's going to be trying to negate what Rockhold sends his way in the grappling department.
It's easy to waver on this fight. Rockhold's got speed, power, size, and submission ability capable of messing Machida up at any point in the fight. Machida can catch any fighter with his counter-game, and when he's pressing himself he remains dangerous. I'm flopping back and forth continuously about this matchup, as there are paths to victory for each fighter here. Ultimately leaning towards somewhat of a gut feeling, though I won't be shocked to see it go the other way whatsoever.
PREDICTION Rockhold by submission in the second round
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Chris Camozzi (Middleweight)
This fight was a bad matchup for Camozzi in 2013, and it's a bad matchup for him now. Jacare's simply a better fighter in every aspect of the game. He's got better striking, better wrestling, infinitely better submissions, and there's very little reason to see Souza getting tripped up here.
Now, that's not to say it's going to end exactly as the last fight did. Souza's quite well-rounded, and doesn't have to take Camozzi down to defeat him. Given the short notice nature of the fight, and the results of their first meeting, it would be a massive upset should Camozzi somehow pull off a victory.
PREDICTION Souza by TKO in the first round
Cub Swanson vs. Max Holloway (Featherweight)
This is a great 145 lb. matchup. Though Swanson's coming off surprisingly one-sided loss to Frankie Edgar last November, he was on a stretch of significantly better performances prior to that.
Holloway's been quite good during his current five-fight winning streak, stopping four opponents and controlling Cole Miller in his last fight. He has improved his striking game, his ground game is getting better, and he's making strides to be a future contender. I'm just not sure that time is now for the 23-year-old.
His wrestling isn't dominant enough to stifle Swanson's game, and he's not likely to get a lot of time in top position to deliver ground and pound. That adds up to a stand-up battle, and it's not one he's likely to win here. I'd expect him to be competitive, but I think Swanson will find a way to do more in a close, tough fight to take the nod.
PREDICTION Swanson by decision
Felice Herrig vs. Paige VanZant (Women's Strawweight)
Herrig's got the clear experience edge, and she's fought an overall higher level of competition to this point in her career. However, VanZant's been impressive in her short career thus far, and is talented in a number of spots.
VanZant's active ground work and scrambling ability were a real standout in her fight with Kailin Curran, and though Herrig's striking game gives her a slight edge on the feet, VanZant's not entirely out of her element there, either.
Herrig thinks she's going to expose VanZant in this fight, but it's likely to be competitive either way. Neither has a massive edge in any one area, and both have holes their opponents can take advantage of. This division's still so young that anything can happen, as we saw last weekend in the Joanne Calderwood-Maryna Moroz fight. Coin flip in this one.
PREDICTION Herrig by Decision
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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