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Penick's Take
UFC 185 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Pettis vs. Dos Anjos" event
Mar 13, 2015 - 11:00:41 PM
UFC 185 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Pettis vs. Dos Anjos" event
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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 185 hits pay-per-view from Dallas tomorrow night, bringing one of the more stacked main cards the UFC has put on in some time. Topped by two fairly stellar title fights, along with a strong supporting cast on the undercard, Saturday's pay-per-view broadcast should be more than worth the $60 price tag. Here's what's on tap:


Anthony Pettis vs. Rafael dos Anjos (UFC Lightweight Championship)

Anthony Pettis has made such quick work of his last several opponents that he doesn't feel he's been able to show off his full potential. Dos Anjos has been a solidly consistent competitor in the UFC's lightweight division for years, but has just emerged as a legitimate title contender in the last year, mostly on the strength of his KO win over former Champion Benson Henderson.

Dos Anjos has a big right hand, some solid striking fundamentals, and a good, if underutilized, grappling game. He's not spectacular anywhere, but he puts it together in a well-rounded package to stay consistently competitive with whomever he's up against.

Pettis is a special talent. It's incredible how overlooked his ground game continues to be despite the consistent submission finishes he's had, but it's understandable given the striking highlights we've seen from him. He's masterful with his kicking game at this point, and it's his taekwondo background that has really just been complimented by the other skills he's developed on the feet.

He's got extremely fast hands as well, and he caught Gilbert Melendez off guard several times with his counter strikes before scoring the submission win in the second round in December. Some believe wrestling and top control grappling are a key to beating him, as evidenced by his UFC debut loss to Clay Guida and a more competitive fight with Jeremy Stephens. However, that's ignoring Pettis' own mental mistakes in the Guida loss that he hasn't allowed himself to repeat. He was too passive off his back in that matchup, and he won't be again.

As good as Rafael dos Anjos has become in the last few years, this fight feels like a matter of how and when Pettis finishes him. Will he get broken down on the feet with body and leg kicks? Get cracked with a head kick? Rocked with combinations as he tries to press the pace? Will he score a takedown only to get submitted from the bottom? Will he get reversed and have Pettis score a submission from top position? Pettis has far too many weapons, has the chin to take dos Anjos' shots, and is simply better in every aspect of the game into Saturday's fight. Dos Anjos may be able to make it more competitive than some others have as of late, but it's hard to see this ending with him getting his hand raised.

PREDICTION: Pettis via KO in the second round


Carla Esparza vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (UFC Women's Strawweight Championship)

Jedrzejczyk surprised many with her performance against Claudia Gadelha, and though there's a valid argument for her actually losing that fight, the split decision came down in her favor and she gets this opportunity on pay-per-view.

Esparza has established herself as the best at 115 lbs. thus far, though Jessica Aguilar would obviously like to argue otherwise. However, since their split decision fight in Bellator in 2011, Esparza's fought a higher level of competition, and she got through several solid fighters en route to claiming the first UFC Women's Strawweight Title.

"The Cookie Monster" relies on her wrestling game, and she's done so to great effect in the last few years. She's got submission skills, solid ground and pound, and the ability to stifle what her opponents want to do.

Jedrzejczyk is a striker, first and foremost, and has some of the best hands Esparza's ever had to face. That said, Esparza's unlikely to give Jedrzejczyk a ton of space with which to work her striking game. If Esparza can keep the pressure on and score takedowns, she can make this a long night for Jedrzejczyk, and possibly even score a late stoppage. Where she could find danger is in the clinch if Jedrzejczyk holds her off, because she's got a solid muay thai background and could take advantage in close if she can stuff the attempts.

I'd expect this to be a competitive fight, though I feel Esparza's wrestling game is a real edge over a 25-minute bout.

PREDICTION: Esparza via decision


Johny Hendricks vs. Matt Brown (Welterweight)

Johny Hendricks had two bad weight cuts into his fights with Robbie Lawler last year, and split those after less than optimal performances. Brown lost his last fight to Lawler as well in a somewhat competitive yet still fairly clear fight.

Hendricks has seemingly gotten his weight issues under control, and hit the 170 lb. mark without issue this week. He's looking to be in much better shape, and says he's gotten back to some of his strength training that has helped him in the past. He's got one hell of a left hand, and a very good wrestling game, though his propensity for throwing bombs could be a detriment against someone like Brown.

Brown has to take Hendricks out early if he's going to win this fight. He's built for the sprint, not for the marathon, and if he fails to put Hendricks away early it could hurt him late, as the takedowns will come easier for the former Champ. However, the fact that it's a three-round fight works in his favor.

It kind of comes down to what kind of game Hendricks wants to play. If he thinks he can win a firefight with Brown, I can see that ending poorly for him. If he wants to utilize his wrestling game to stifle Brown's offensive output, he can win a clear decision. There's a part of me that's expecting the former, and if that happens, I kind of like the underdog pick.

PREDICTION: Brown via TKO in the second round


Alistair Overeem vs. Roy Nelson (Heavyweight)

Roy Nelson said this week he hopes to see the Alistair Overeem who is out to knock someone out in violent fashion, and hopes he hasn't adopted a safer, smarter approach from working with Greg Jackson. Overeem needs to fight that exact kind of fight to avoid yet another setback in his UFC career.

Nelson has lost three of his last four fights, performing quite poorly against both Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier, knocking out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and getting knocked out by Mark Hunt. That Hunt loss is the first time he's been stopped in his UFC career, and though that could suggest Overeem has an opening for a KO win of his own here, I don't think he should underestimate Nelson's chin.

Overeem has a heavy hitting striking style, but there are many times he winds up getting hit as often as he lands. He can put people away, but when he fails he's often left himself open to the comeback. He himself hasn't had the best recent record, and though he knocked out Stefan Struve in December, I don't know that it's coming against Nelson here.

If Overeem tries to grind it out to get a win, he can succeed in that. He can make it ugly like he did against Frank Mir, and keep himself in the win column. If he stands toe to toe with Roy Nelson, I don't like his chances through a 15-minute fight, because we've seen him allow fighters to come back and stop him in fights. In a battle of possibly suspect chins, I'll take Nelson's at this point.

PREDICTION: Nelson via TKO in the second round


Henry Cejudo vs. Chris Cariaso (Flyweight)

The Olympic gold medalist officially made 125 lbs. on Friday, assuaging fears that he'd have another difficult cut in trying to compete at flyweight. He's entering with considerable hype and off a very good performance against Dustin Kimura. What was most surprising about that fight is that he just flat-out beat Kimura on the feet, throwing aside the wrestling game and instead showcasing his striking game for 15-minutes.

Chris Cariaso is a durable, consistently competitive fighter with a decently well-rounded game. He's not going to overwhelm Cejudo anywhere, but he can make it hard for Cejudo to look great anywhere.

This has the potential to be a standout performance for Cejudo, proving he's a legit contender against a man who fought for the title in his last outing. However, it could potentially devolve into a duller fight where Cejudo has to embrace the grind to win a couple rounds. I think Cejudo's the better fighter, but it's not going to be easy for him.

PREDICTION: Cejudo via decision


DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
UFC 195 PREVIEW: Penick's main card preview and fight picks for "Lawler vs. Condit" event
Penick's 2015 MMA Awards: "Submission of the Year" - Ronda Rousey's inverted armbar over Cat Zingano at UFC 184
Penick's 2015 MMA Awards: "KO of the Year" - Holly Holm's head kick over Ronda Rousey at UFC 193

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