Penick's Take
UFC 183 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and predictions for "Silva vs. Diaz" event
Jan 30, 2015 - 8:10:50 PM UFC 183 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and predictions for "Silva vs. Diaz" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz return from lengthy layoffs on Saturday night in Las Vegas, meeting in the main event at UFC 183. There's been quite a bit of anticipation for this one as it was announced several months back, and the two entertaining strikers will finally square off in the Octagon. Elsewhere on the main card, mid-to-top tier welterweights try to make their way towards the elite end of the division, a resurgent Thales Leites tries to keep his run going, and always entertaining lightweights Joe Lauzon and Al Iaquinta will try to steal the show. Here's what's coming on tomorrow's pay-per-view card.

Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz (Middleweight)

Nick Diaz is a fantastic volume striker who excels at overwhelming his opponents with aggression on the feet. He's also extremely dangerous on the ground, leading to a bit of a "pick your poison" approach for most of his opponents.

However, Diaz is susceptible to counter-striking, and his aggression can be to his detriment if his opponent can take advantage in that area. Given he's up against one of the best counter-strikers in this sport's history, and one who has a significant size edge over him as well, this is simply an uphill battle for Stockton's finest.

While Silva is returning to action for the first time since breaking his leg in horrific fashion at UFC 168, Diaz isn't coming in with the type of punching power that Chris Weidman used to put Silva out cold in the summer of 2013. Silva is poised to get back on track, and once he gets warmed up against Diaz, it should just be a matter of finding the right opening. Diaz will play into what Silva does well on the feet, and though he might wind up getting in some offense, it's just not likely to end well for him on Saturday night.

PREDICTION: Silva via TKO in the second round


Kelvin Gastelum vs. Tyron Woodley (Catchweight)

Had Gastelum come into this on weight without any issues, I was on the side of the young TUF winner to continue his run up the ranks. As it stands, he had a terrible weight cut, missed weight by a completely unacceptable nine pounds. On top of that, he was reportedly hospitalized, and probably shouldn't have been allowed to actually fight here on Saturday night.

By contrast, Woodley's coming in off his latest KO win over Dong Hyun Kim, and his UFC losses have come against guys in Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields who were able to out-grapple and out-work him on the feet, both by decision. That's not something Gastelum's going to be able to accomplish given how bad this cut went this week, and I think we see Woodley take advantage of the opportunity presented. This isn't a fight that should still be on tomorrow, but they're allowing Gastelum to fight, and I don't think it's going to turn out well for him.

PREDICTION: Woodley via TKO in the second round.


Joe Lauzon vs. Al Iaquinta (Lightweight)

Lauzon's coming off an excellent fight against the man who beat Iaquinta in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter Live, Michael Chiesa, a fight he won after opening a nasty cut on Chiesa that forced doctors to stop the fight. He's won more bonuses in the UFC than any other fighter, and he remains extremely dangerous on the ground.

Iaquinta has been quite good in his UFC run, winning five of seven fights, and knocking out his last two opponents. If Lauzon decides to try his hand trading strikes with Iaquinta, it's probably going to go badly for him, but I think he understands his path to victory in this one.

This one is a toss up, because Lauzon can end this if he gets it to the ground, but Iaquinta has the power to stop him before it gets there. Lauzon's pretty damned durable, though, and I think he might halt Iaquinta's run here.

PREDICTION: Lauzon via submission in the second round


Thales Leites vs. Tim Boetsch (Middleweight)

Boetsch gave himself new life in the division with a big TKO win over Brad Tavares in his home state of Maine last August. Still, it's Leites who has been on the real resurgent run, and this should be a heavy hitting affair in Vegas.

Leites' first run in the UFC saw him as primarily a grappler who just wasn't all there in the striking department. Still, he worked to a title fight in that stint before a string of bad performances sent him out. He got back with a 6-1 run outside of the Octagon, and he's won four straight since returning. That former striking deficiency has also turned into a strength, and he's stopped Trevor Smith and Francis Carmont in his last two fights.

The Brazilian simply has more ways to win this fight. It's not necessarily likely for him to score a third straight TKO, because Boetsch can take a punch for the most part, but if he hurts him on the feet, he can take advantage on the ground as well, and I think that's where he gets it done.

PREDICTION: Leites via submission in the second round


Jordan Mein vs. Thiago Alves (Welterweight)

Given the fact that Alves has fought just once since 2012, it's hard to say what we're going to get out of him here. The former title challenger has had his ups and downs in the Octagon, but one thing he hasn't really done is get beat up too badly on the feet.

That's something the hard-hitting Mein is going to try to change, because he's got the power, speed, and technique to do a lot of damage. Alves can return fire, and the way Mein lost to Matt Brown could leave him open to a bad night here if he's not careful.

In this fight, though, I like the youth in Mein to continue his climb up the ladder in the UFC's welterweight field, and I think he'll get done what no one else but Jon Fitch has in the UFC.

PREDICTION: Mein via TKO in the first round