Penick's Take
UFC 182 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight predictions for "Jones vs. Cormier" event
Jan 2, 2015 - 11:30:58 PM UFC 182 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight predictions for "Jones vs. Cormier" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

After what has been an agonizing wait, Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier will finally meet in the cage tomorrow night at UFC 182. It's one of the most anticipated fights the UFC has put on in the last few years, and we're kicking 2015 off on a high. Here's what's coming up on tomorrow's pay-per-view card.


Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier (Light Heavyweight Championship)

Is Daniel Cormier the biggest challenge Jon Jones has ever faced? That's the question into Saturday night. Cormier's wrestling is obviously the biggest advantage he has into the event, but despite his credentials, it doesn't automatically mean he's going to out-class Jones in that aspect of the game.

Cormier's been so good at dictating the pace against his opposition that it breaks them down, leaving him opportunities to open up in other areas. The signature win of his career against Josh Barnett saw him utilize that to great effect, taking Barnett completely off his game and not allowing the former UFC Heavyweight Champ to score much offensively. He broke down Dan Henderson in his last fight, keeping the pressure on until he wrecked him with a third round submission.

However, he has not been in the cage against anyone nearing Jones' abilities, and Jones is a master in his own right of dictating pace in his fights.

The UFC Champ is fantastic at utilizing his range with jabs, kicks, elbows, and more, and he can be just as dangerous in the clinch as well. He's also incredibly adept on the ground, with a submission game that has been seemingly under-appreciated into this matchup. Jones also prides himself on being able to beat his opponents at their own games, and has made it clear he expects to take Cormier down himself in this fight.

Cormier's probably going to get Jones to the ground at some point in this fight. Keeping him there is a completely different story. And how will he handle the steady stream of attacks and the grappling game from Jones through a 25-minute fight? I just can't see Cormier controlling this fight and dominating Jones through 25 minutes, and that's what he'd need to do to win this fight. Jones is far too dynamic with far too many ways to attack Cormier in this fight. I think he finds a way to hurt the former Olympian before finishing this fight decisively. It's an opportunity to make a statement for both of them, and I think Jones is the one more likely to make his.

PREDICTION: Jones via submission in the third round


Donald Cerrone vs. Myles Jury (Lightweight)

Donald Cerrone's had a hell of a year, putting forth some of his greatest highlights and overall best performances. That's especially true of his fight with Eddie Alvarez, where he pressured the Bellator Lightweight Champion for the final ten minutes and walked away with a unanimous decision win. Add in fantastic performances over Jim Miller, Charles Oliveira, and Adriano Martins, and he's riding high into 2015.

Then again, that's where Myles Jury finds himself as well. He hasn't taken out the same level of competition, and he doesn't have the same big fight experience yet that Cerrone brings into the fight, but Jury is a really, really good prospect himself. His striking has continued to improve, his wrestling base continues to be an asset, and he's good overall in the grappling department as well.

We're going to find out where Jury stands in this fight. If he can pull off the victory over Cerrone in any capacity, it's the biggest of his career, and launches him into the veritable mix. If Cerrone can pull off another spectacular win, he might just get a No. 1 contender fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov or a rematch in that capacity against Rafael dos Anjos - depending on the next fight for Anthony Pettis.

Conventional wisdom probably goes to a Cerrone win here, but I think Jury's got a very good chance to pull this out as well. Cerrone's got a tendency to get in his own way at times, and with both of them willing and able to get into firefights, I think Jury could pick up the win here.

PREDICTION: Jury by TKO in the second round


Nate Marquardt vs. Brad Tavares (Middleweight)

Tavares went to decisions in seven straight UFC fights before a TKO loss to Tim Boetsch in his last outing. Marquardt looked good in submitting James Te Huna in his middleweight return, halting a three fight losing streak at welterweight, but his best days seem behind him.

This one's either going to be another good performance from Marquardt, or it's going to become a potentially ugly, likely competitive, back and forth type fight. It could go either way if that happens, and I'm not sure I'm confident in either fighter doing much of anything.

Still, if Marquardt can put something together here, he can keep his career alive in the UFC. That's likely to be the more entertaining outcome of any in this one, so let's roll with that.

PREDICTION: Marquardt via TKO in the first round


Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Louis Gaudinot (Flyweight)

Horiguchi is a fantastic flyweight fighter, and has looked very good in his UFC appearances thus far. Gaudinot's win over John Lineker from 2012 is a standout for him, but given the issues Lineker had into that fight, and the way Gaudinot's looked in his other fights in the UFC, that's a bit of an anomaly.

Horiguchi, meanwhile, is only 24-years-old, and continues to improve. He had a good run as a bantamweight into his UFC debut, and is even better in the 125 lb. field. This is set up for him to have another highlight-reel type performance, and if he follows through on that, he'll be closing in on title contention this year.

PREDICTION: Horiguchi via TKO in the second round


Hector Lombard vs. Josh Burkman (Welterweight)

This is a fight Lombard should win, especially if he wants to move on quick to a fight with Matt Brown, and if he wants to move into title contention this year. However, Burkman has looked very good in most of his recent outings, and though he's not far removed from the loss to Steve Carl, that may not be totally indicative of where he's at.

Lombard has also had issues with his gas tank when he can't put guys away early, and Burkman is a fighter who has never been stopped by strikes. Lombard's judo is excellent, and he's got some submission skills, but he hasn't utilized it all that often, because he's been enamored with his striking game.

This one could devolve into a slug-fest, which certainly would favor Lombard, but Burkman's got a lot of power himself. It could also devolve into a tentative or dull fight, similar to Lombard's fight with Tim Boetsch. It could also be closer to the Jake Shields matchup, which was a slower and more methodical pace than other Lombard fights.

Regardless, even though Burkman's a tough, probably game opponent, I think Lombard takes this one. He might not finish it, but I think he can still win a decision if Burkman survives what will likely be an early onslaught.

PREDICTION: Lombard via decision