Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 58 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and predictions for "Machida vs. Dollaway" event
Dec 19, 2014 - 11:15:46 PM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 58 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and predictions for "Machida vs. Dollaway" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC's 2014 schedule comes to a close tomorrow night from Brazil, with Lyoto Machida and C.B. Dollaway competing in the final bout in the Octagon of the year. The Fox Sports 1 main card brings six fights from Barueri, Brazil, so let's take a quick look at what's on tap!

Lyoto Machida vs. C.B. Dollaway (Middleweight): Machida is a well-known commodity here. His counter-striking is superb, he's extremely hard to hit, he's got great takedown defense, and when he unleashes he can finish fights in highly impressive fashion. Dollaway has been on a nice run in the UFC's middleweight division, with only a highly questionable split decision loss to Tim Boetsch blemishing things since 2011. Dollaway's wrestling game has improved, and he's been able to dictate the pace of his fights for the most part over the last few years. While I want to give Dollaway more credit into this matchup and not write him off entirely, it's hard to see how he succeeds against Machida. If he tries to wrestle with "The Dragon," he's going to get caught coming in, and isn't likely to keep him down if he gets him down. If he tries to strike, he's going to be beaten to the punch more often than not. This is Machida's fight to lose, and this is the same Machida who came very near capturing the title in July. The former Light Heavyweight Champ should win big here. Machida by TKO in the second round.


Renan Barao vs. Mitch Gagnon (Bantamweight): Barao looked very much off his game the last time we saw him, but it was a relatively quick turnaround, and an opponent he clearly didn't take seriously enough in T.J. Dillashaw. He's had more time to prepare for Gagnon, and he's not making the mistake of looking past him, either. Gagnon has a really, really slick submission game, and he's getting a great opportunity here, but again, there's a bit of a talent gulf between the two fighters here. It would be a huge statement - reflecting massively on both - if Gagnon wins this fight. I just don't think Barao can let that happen, and if he gets Gagnon in trouble at any point, I think he puts him away to keep himself on track for an attempt at getting his title back. Barao via submission in the second round.


Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Patrick Cummins (Light Heavyweight): Carlos Junior didn't look all that great in his decision win over Vitor Miranda. Cummins is coming off a workmanlike win over a tough Kyle Kingsbury that probably should have been over before it was. Cummins may have gotten worked in his short notice debut against Daniel Cormier, but Carlos Junior is a very far cry from Cormier. Cummins via TKO in the second round.


Elias Silverio vs. Rashid Magomedov (Lightweight): Both of these fighters have looked pretty good in their UFC runs thus far, and this should be a pretty competitive fight. Silverio's got very dangerous striking skills, and between the two of them is more likely to finish the fight. That said, Magomedov is fairly well rounded, and though he's not spectacular anywhere, he can hang with Silverio in the grappling department or on the feet. While I think Silverio could stop this one, it's probably going the distance. I lean to the Brazilian on home soil here. Silverio via decision.


Erick Silva vs. Mike Rhodes (Welterweight): Rhodes hasn't looked great in his UFC run thus far, and though Silva may seem like a vulnerable fighter, and perhaps an easier out than in the past, Rhodes isn't Matt Brown, Dong Hyun Kim, or Jon Fitch. Silva should be very clearly favored here, because he's simply the much more dangerous fighter. If Rhodes can survive an early onslaught, perhaps he can ride out a couple rounds for the upset. I'm just not sure I see that happening at all. Silva via TKO in the first round.


Daniel Sarafian vs. Antonio dos Santos, Jr. (Middleweight): Sarafian has lost three of his four UFC fights, and hasn't done much to impress thus far. Dos Santos, Jr., is making his debut, having stopped his last three opponents with strikes. I'm honestly not sure what level to expect from dos Santos, Jr., here, so it's hard to judge this fight. Sarafian can beat lesser competition, but if dos Santos, Jr., can keep this standing, he can probably score the stoppage for himself. If he can't, and if Sarafian can get him to the ground, he could be in trouble. Flier on the new guy. Dos Santos, Jr., via TKO in the first round.