Penick's Take
Penick's Weekend Preview: Breakdown and picks for top fights from UFC 180, Bellator 131, and WSOF 15
Nov 15, 2014 - 10:30:09 AM Penick's Weekend Preview: Breakdown and picks for top fights from UFC 180, Bellator 131, and WSOF 15

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Saturday night brings three events from the top three U.S. promotions with varying levels of intrigue. As none of the three cards truly stands out above the others - mainly due to UFC 180 losing Cain Velasquez from the fold - there's merit to each of the events, so tonight we'll break down a few of the key fights from each event for a weekend preview. Let's start with the UFC on pay-per-view:

UFC 180

Fabricio Werdum vs. Mark Hunt (Interim Heavyweight Championship): Hunt obviously has the type of one-punch knockout power to turn any fight around, but I just can't bring myself to give him any more than a puncher's chance in this scenario. He's fighting at a massive altitude on short notice, and though he made weight, it still came after cutting a significant amount. Werdum is absolutely capable of withstanding an early attempt at an onslaught from Hunt, and as the fight continues, there's just no way Hunt is able to keep his cardio up. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, I just can't see a scenario in which Hunt, on short notice, in this elevation, can deal with the cardio aspect of this matchup as the fight moves on. Werdum's increased his striking abilities in recent years, but he still has a massive grappling edge in this fight as well, and I think it all culminates midway through the fight in a Werdum win. Werdum by submission in the third round.


Jake Ellenberger vs. Kelvin Gastelum (Welterweight): On some levels, I'm shocked to see Gastelum's the favorite coming into this fight. Ellenberger's been on a bit of a down swing as of late, but that's come against top competition, and though Gastelum's undefeated, this is a significant step up for the TUF winner. However, Gastelum's got a sneaky striking game, which has continued to improve while his wrestling has allowed him to control a major portion of his fights as well. I've gone back and forth on this fight this week, and with Gastelum making weight with ease, this could be a coming out fight for him against a declining Ellenberger. Gastelum by decision.


Ricardo Lamas vs. Dennis Bermudez (Featherweight): This is one of the best fights scheduled all weekend. Bermudez has been excellent through a seven fight winning streak in the division, but even though he's defeated some solid competitors, this represents a significant step up in competition. Lamas is just a fight removed from a title bout of his own with Jose Aldo, he's got a submission win over fellow top contender Cub Swanson, and he's been mostly dominant in the UFC. This is a chance for Bermudez to take that next step towards being a title contender, but I don't see Lamas as an easy out here. Bermudez has been very good, and if he pulls off the upset I'll be in his camp for a 2015 title fight. However, I think Lamas has the skill and experience to control more of this fight. Lamas by decision.


Bellator 131

Tito Ortiz vs. Stephan Bonnar (Light Heavyweight): It's hard to say just what we're going to see from these two here. Ortiz was just far from effective down the stretch in his UFC run, and his win over Alexander Shlemenko was one against an undersized striker. Bonnar's not great at this stage, but he's got a stronger takedown defense game than Shlemenko, and his only loss since 2010 was the loss to Anderson Silva. I just don't see how anyone can get intrigued by this fight on any level, and it ultimately doesn't really matter what happens here. Bonnar by decision.


Michael Chandler vs. Will Brooks (Lightweight Championship): Brooks took full advantage of a late notice booking with Chandler earlier this year, and edged out a decision in a fight many felt he lost. They've now each gotten a full camp to prepare into this rematch, and Chandler believes he's much healthier than he was into the first fight. I think Brooks proved in the first fight that he's got the wrestling and striking combination to hang with Chandler, but I think we're in for a different version of the former Champ than we got last time out. Chandler at his best just has a lot more weapons at his disposal, and I think he bounces back in a big way in this one. Chandler by TKO in the third round.


WSOF 15

Dave Branch vs. Yushin Okami (Middleweight Championship): Branch looked excellent in his title winning effort, but Okami's on a completely different level than Jesse Taylor. Honestly, though Branch isn't easy to put away, I don't see any spot where he has an edge over Okami. The Japanese former UFC Title contender may have a few TKO losses in recent years, but that's not Branch's strong suit, and he's not out-grappling Okami through a three round fight. Okami by decision.


Justin Gaethje vs. Melvin Guillard (159 lb. Catchweight): As a five round fight, I would have favored Gaethje. As a three round fight after Guillard badly missed weight, I feel the same way. Guillard certainly has stopping power, and could be the first one to take out the exciting young future superstar, but after he missed weight by such a wide margin, this is just a terrible spot for him. Gaethje accepted the fight on the condition he got 50% of Guillard's purse, and he's certainly not going to want to take a loss in a non-title fight. Gaethje's violence wins out. Gaethje by TKO in the second round.