Penick's Take
UFC 179 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Aldo vs. Mendes II" event
Oct 25, 2014 - 9:05:35 AM UFC 179 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Aldo vs. Mendes II" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

After a few weeks off, and a month removed from their last pay-per-view offering, the UFC is back on pay TV Saturday night with UFC 179 from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. As has been the case quite often this year, tomorrow's event is pretty much a one-fight card, but it's one hell of an intriguing fight between the two best featherweights in the organization. Here's how I think tomorrow's main card may play out:


Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes (UFC Featherweight Championship)

It's been nearly three years since Aldo and Mendes last met, and a lot has happened for both fighters since then. Mendes has won five straight fights, knocking out four of those opponents, while Aldo has added three more title defenses to his credit.

As far as fighting evolution is concerned, Mendes has made more strides in his overall game than Aldo has, but that's also because the Champ hasn't needed to take another step. He's already proven himself better than all comers at 145 lbs., and his one-sided wins over Frankie Edgar, Chan Sung Jung, and Ricardo Lamas are a testament to that.

Of course, while he's stayed as good as ever, he hasn't necessarily gotten better. Mendes, though, has added a really dangerous wrinkle to his game in power and striking acumen that he just really hadn't proven to have into his first shot at the title.

The intriguing thing about this matchup is that we haven't seen anyone do to Mendes what Aldo did, and because it was an out of nowhere KO following a fence grab and holding onto Mendes' wrist to set up the knee, it's hard to say it's something that's easily duplicated. But at the same time, despite the improvements Mendes has made in the last 30 months, he's going to have to do something we've never seen anyone accomplish to take the title from Aldo.

There's an outside chance here that Mendes lands a surprise knock down or knock out to end things. There's a chance Mendes is able to utilize his excellent top game control to win three rounds of a fight. However, the more likely scenario is Aldo utilizing his range striking to keep Mendes at bay, while stuffing takedowns more often than not, or getting himself to his feet if he does go down.

Though Mendes got caught in that first fight, it's hard to say the same thing's going to happen again, and even though there's some added bad blood into the matchup, I'm not convinced Aldo's going to get back to stopping fights again given we just haven't seen it from him consistently. I absolutely believe an upset could happen on Saturday, as Mendes has a lot working in his favor in the last couple of years, and he's got the motivation to capture that title. Aldo just remains the best 145 lb. fighter in the world right now, and there's a lot that goes into dethroning a long-reigning Champion. I still have a hard time picking a clear winner here, but I'm going to stick with the man who continues to hold onto his belt in fight after fight.

Prediction: Aldo via unanimous decision


Glover Teixeira vs. Phil Davis (Light Heavyweight)

Davis is a wrestler with some submission skills who thrives against fighters who can't stop his ground game. Teixeira has a good wrestling game, good submission game, and power in his striking game as well.

This honestly seems like a terrible matchup for Davis. His striking game doesn't work well against someone as hard hitting and brutal as Teixeira can be, and he can't fall back on his wrestling and top control game, because it's highly unlikely to be effective against Teixeira.

I think we see the Brazilian rebound from his title loss to Jon Jones in dominant fashion, because I don't see any area in which Davis should have the edge.

Prediction: Teixeira via TKO in the second round


Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer (Light Heavyweight)

Maldonado suffered his first stoppage loss to strikes ever in his last outing, getting beat on short notice by Stipe Miocic to end a three-fight winning streak. Stringer picked up a split decision win in his UFC debut, moving his unbeaten streak to seven fights, which includes two draws.

I have no clue why this fight is on the pay-per-view portion of any card, but that's where it is here. Maldonado's a walking punching bag who occasionally returns fire. Stringer's just another body to throw into this 205 lb. field, with little pedigree to hold a spot as anything but a lower end guy at this point.

This one could wind up exciting, it could wind up ugly as all hell; either way, it's not one that breeds anticipation.

Prediction: Maldonado via decision


Darren Elkins vs. Lucas Martins (Featherweight)

This fight, on the the other hand, is highly intriguing. Martins has looked excellent in his current three fight winning streak, stopping all three opponents. Elkins is on a 1-2 kick in the division, and in desperate need of a return to form.

Elkins has a good wrestling and overall grappling game, but Martins is fairly capable on the ground. Indeed, his only loss is a submission to strikes against lightweight Edson Barboza in his UFC debut. Elkins may have only been beat by a select few, but he hasn't set the world on fire in his victories, either.

This fight kind of comes down to whether Martins allows Elkins to dictate the pace, or if he utilizes his considerable striking advantage to determine what happens. If he manages that, this could be the third stoppage loss in Elkins' UFC career.

Prediction: Martins via TKO in the second round


Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush (Lightweight)

Incredibly, this marks the first fight in Brazil for the native Ferreira, who has competed almost exclusively in Texas during his 11-fight professional run. He enters with a perfect record, having most recently stopped Ramsey Nijem at UFC 177 in August.

He stepped up on short notice as an injury replacement against Dariush, who has gone 2-1 in the UFC thus far, sandwiching submission wins over a TKO loss to Ramsey Nijem.

However, it's Nijem who fell victim to Ferreira on that August card, and Ferreira's poised for a follow-up performance.

Prediction: Ferreira via submission in the second round