Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 45 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and picks for "Cerrone vs. Miller" event
Jul 15, 2014 - 11:35:37 PM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 45 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and picks for "Cerrone vs. Miller" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Wednesday's UFC Fight Night 45 event in Atlantic City brings six fights to the main card broadcast on Fox Sports 1, topped by a highly intriguing fight between Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller. Here's a quick rapid-fire rundown of the main card, with my picks for tomorrow's fights:


Donald Cerrone vs. Jim Miller (Lightweight): This is an entertaining fight between two lightweight veterans who, while capable of massively entertaining performances, have nevertheless been inconsistent in high level matchups. In Cerrone's case that's meant losses to Benson Henderson and Jamie Varner in his WEC Title bouts, and losses in the UFC to Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, and Rafael dos Anjos. For Miller, over the last few years it's meant losses of his own to Henderson and Diaz, with another to Pat Healy overturned after the fact due to a failed drug test.

They've also had their fair share of questionable performances in victory, with Miller looking rough before catching Fabricio Camoes and Cerrone's slower fights with guys like K.J. Noons and Jeremy Stephens.

That said, at their best, they can be damned good, with the ability to hurt opponents on the feet and catch them on the ground. As far as this matchup is concerned, I'm still unsure about Miller despite his one-sided win over Yancy Medeiros. Cerrone is more adept on the ground, and with the way Miller started against Camoes late last year, he could be in big trouble if he gets hurt early. This is probably Cerrone's fight to lose, but if Miller can prove savvy enough to catch him, it's entirely possible for him to win. But I'll roll with Cerrone via submission in the second round.


Edson Barboza vs. Evan Dunham (Lightweight): Two more talented, yet flawed lightweights take up the co-main event slot here. Barboza allows himself to get tagged far too often, and while Dunham has his moments, he hasn't proved to be an elite fighter at 155 lbs. Barboza's chin is a concern, because he gets tagged in almost every fight. However, he more often than not showcases an ability to recover that can bring him back into fights. It's hard to be confident in either guy right now, but I'll roll with Barboza via TKO in the third round after a potentially shaky start.


Rick Story vs. Leonardo Mafra (Welterweight): Mafra makes his return after a loss in his debut in 2012 to Thiago Perpetuo out of "The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil." He's gone 5-0 in the interim outside of the UFC, but he comes back as an undersized welterweight against a very strong fighter in Rick Story. Mafra's a violent guy, but Story's capable of neutralizing that attack. It's not necessarily going to be pretty, but I think Story wins a decision.


Justin Salas vs. Joe Proctor (Lightweight): Another lightweight matchup on this card with some talent, but lots of flaws. Lower down the ladder than the other two fights on this card, both are trying to build off of wins scored earlier this year. Salas is more susceptible to being finished, but Proctor hasn't proven to be much of one himself. Kind of a coin flip fight, but I'll take Proctor by decision.


John Lineker vs. Alptekin Ozkilic (Flyweight): Ozkilic had a humbling loss to Louis Smolka in his last fight, after edging past Darren Uyenoyama in his debut. Lineker made weight after that continued issue aided in a loss to Ali Bagautinov earlier this year. Lineker is the better fighter of the two, and given he made weight without issue on Tuesday, he may not have some of the cardio issues he's had in the past. Ozkilic isn't easy to put away, and I'll bet he makes this a tough fight, but Lineker's going to be pressuring early and often, and probably enough to take two rounds. Lineker by decision.


Lucas Martins vs. Alex White (Featherweight): Martins looked great in two 2013 fights in two different weight classes; now he fights in his third inside the Octagon, moving up slightly to featherweight after dropping two divisions between fights last year. White made a very good impression in April with a knockout of Estevan Payan, bringing him to a perfect 10-0 with nine stoppage wins. Martins is a violent fighter in his own right, with heavy hands and slick submission skills. This is entirely likely to wind up a slugfest with even the winner coming out with some damage. I'll go with the more experienced of the two. Martins via TKO in the second round.