Penick's Take
UFC 175 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Weidman vs. Machida" event
Jul 4, 2014 - 1:35:34 PM UFC 175 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Weidman vs. Machida" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 175 arrives on Saturday without the level of hype and fanfare expected. With two title fights topping the card, it remains a big time event, but it doesn't feel as big now as it did when those two fights were announced. Still, it's likely to be the best drawing pay-per-view of the year thus far, and the main event remains a highly intriguing fight. Here's what's coming on Saturday night:


Chris Weidman vs. Lyoto Machida (Middleweight Championship):

This is a really tough fight to break down. Lyoto Machida is as elusive as ever, and remains a strong counter-striker with great takedown defense and still dangerous ground skills. Chris Weidman is a fantastic wrestler with a really good top game, but he's also improved his striking game in the last couple of years, and has shown he has power in his hands.

Weidman thinks Machida is a tougher test for him than Anderson Silva was last year, and in many respects that's an accurate assessment. Because of Machida's excellent counter-striking abilities, any attempts to rush him and score lunging strikes the likes of which were landed against Silva will be met with better defense and combinations in counter.

Another question mark is how much Weidman's knee surgery this spring affected his preparations. Is it an issue at all? Was he able to get right back into the flow? If he's improved at a similar rate to what he showed last year, we could see new wrinkles to his game as well.

Can Weidman actually get Machida to the ground and neutralize the counter-striking game? Can he close distance and outwork Machida in the clinch? Can Machida turn on the attack and take advantage of openings given to him?

There are a lot of question marks in this one, and not a lot of clear answers.

But as the fight draws close, this is also a fight Weidman kind of has to win. Fair or not, his wins over Anderson Silva last year remain slightly clouded with Silva's brash disregard for his striking in the first and the freak leg break in the second. Weidman needs a clear, decisive victory over another elite talent in Machida to quell that talk.

Machida could capture the title, and send Weidman back down with some fans insisting he somehow got lucky against Silva and that was it. He might take Machida out and join a small group to have done so. It's a complete toss-up, and the more each possibility is considered, the more they all seem plausible. I think Weidman has the abilities necessary to hold onto his spot as the best, but Machida is such a tricky fight for him stylistically. Will he prove to be another Jon Jones fight for Machida? Will Weidman wind up another Rashad Evans for Machida to take out? We'll find out on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Weidman via TKO in the second round


Ronda Rousey vs. Alexis Davis (Women's Bantamweight Championship)

Alexis Davis is a well rounded fighter who has put forth tough performances against a number of well-known names in the sport. She's capable of hanging on the feet, she's hard to put away, and she's got a very good ground game as well.

Rousey, though, is a driven, and continuously improving Champion, who only gets more dangerous as she adds new things to her game. The armbar is something she can hit on anyone at almost anytime, but she's mixing in a bit more in her striking game as well, as evidenced by her performance against Sara McMann in February.

Rousey's faced some tough and resilient fighters on a number of occasions. Most fighters don't dominate and put away Miesha Tate. Liz Carmouche hadn't ever been stopped in the first round prior to fighting Rousey. Sarah Kaufman hadn't ever been beaten as quickly as Rousey beat her.

There is something special about Ronda Rousey's judo game in this women's bantamweight division, and there's no reason whatsoever to believe Davis will be the one to take that title from her.

PREDICTION: Rousey via armbar in the first round


Stefan Struve vs. Matt Mitrione (Heavyweight)

Struve returns to the cage for the first time in almost 16 months, but his time off was getting himself better after his heart condition was found out last year. As he returns, he's feeling like he can be even better with his heart now doing its full job.

Mitrione isn't the most well rounded guy, but he's got a ton of power, and he's more than capable of putting most away if he connects. Struve is also a fighter who tends to get hit quite a bit, as he's never figured out fully how to use his height and reach to keep fighters at bay.

The key for Struve in this fight is to avoid a firefight. He's got a massive advantage on the ground, so if he can get Mitrione there and not go toe to toe for several rounds, this should be an exciting return. Mitrione's capable of the KO, but I think Struve fights smarter, gets him down, and finishes it there.

PREDICTION: Struve via submission in the second round


Uriah Hall vs. Thiago Santos (Middleweight)

Uriah Hall has a mental block in this sport. He's got a ton of talent, he's capable of violent finishes, but he doesn't have that killer instinct mentality, and in his first official UFC win in December, he was extremely reluctant to continue beating up Chris Leben.

Thiago Santos enters fresh off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history from an odds standpoint, and he's got stopping power in his strikes as well. That said, Hall's only TKO loss came to current Champ Weidman several years ago in regional competition.

Hall should win this fight, but if he hits that mental block again, he could once again disappoint.

PREDICTION: Hall via TKO in the second round


Marcus Brimage vs. Russell Doane (Bantamweight)

Brimage fights for the first time since getting demolished by Conor McGregor last year, and he's dropping weight for this fight as well.

Doane made an impressive debut in January, submitting the submission fighter in Leandro Issa in Singapore. He's a talented bantamweight with a lot of skills, and if the cut negatively affects Brimage, this could be a tough night for him.

PREDICTION: Doane by submission in the second round


Urijah Faber vs. Alex Caceres (Bantamweight)

Alex Caceres looked good against Sergio Pettis, and he's been very good at bantamweight thus far. He's also never fought anyone close to Faber's level.

Faber's coming off a loss to Renan Barao, but that was on extremely short notice after he beat four fighters in 2013 alone.

He's had a full camp this time around, and remains the better fighter in every capacity. It would be absolutely shocking if Caceres pulled off the upset.

PREDICTION: Faber via submission in the first round

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Kenny Robertson over Ildemar Alcantara by SUB RD 1
-Chris Camozzi over Bruno Santos by DEC
-Rob Font over George Roop by TKO RD 2
-Guilherme Vasconcelos over Luke Zachrich by DEC
-Bubba Bush over Kevin Casey by SUB RD 1