Penick's Take
UFC 174 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Bagautinov" event
Jun 14, 2014 - 2:15:46 PM UFC 174 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Johnson vs. Bagautinov" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 174 hits Vancouver tonight, the UFC's first trip back to the city in several years. After three straight headliners on Fox, Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson is getting his first shot at headlining a pay-per-view card for the UFC, putting his Flyweight Championship on the line against Ali Bagutinov. On to the event!


Demetrious Johnson vs. Ali Bagautinov (Flyweight Title)

"Mighty Mouse" proved in 2013 that he is without a doubt the best 125 lb. fighter on the planet, taking out the best the UFC's had to offer him, and doing so in increasingly impressive fashion. He's got speed, cardio, submission skills, and as he proved against Joseph Benavidez, increased punching power as well.

Ali Bagautinov comes in with some of those attributes as well. He's got some submission skills in his arsenal, and has very good grappling with his Sambo background. He's also got some power in his hands, with five of his nine stoppage wins coming by TKO.

However, the disconnect between Bagautinov and Johnson is going to be in the speed and cardio categories. Bagautinov is fast, sure, but to keep up with the pace that Johnson sets and is able to maintain for five rounds is nigh impossible.

This fight on the surface seems very similar to the one Johnson had last year with John Dodson. Bagautinov is likely to be competitive early on, but we've seen him fade a bit late in his last two fights with both John Lineker and Tim Elliott. He won both of those fights clearly, but he's never experienced a fourth or fifth round.

He's going to experience that in this fight more than likely, and I'm not convinced he'll be able to keep up. I think we see the Champion really take control of the fight about midway through - if he hasn't by then already - wear Bagautinov down, and put the tired challenger away late.

PREDICTION: Johnson by submission in the fifth round



Rory MacDonald vs. Tyron Woodley (Welterweight)

This is kind of a hard fight to predict, because both fighters have been so erratic with what they've done in the cage over the last couple of years.

Take Woodley, he went from an all out brawl with Nate Marquardt which saw him get knocked out, to a UFC run which has featured two vicious KO wins, a really bad fight and a decision loss to Jake Shields, and an injury TKO win over Carlos Condit.

MacDonald went from rag-dolling Nate Diaz to taking out Mike Pyle and Che Mills with ease, then beat up B.J. Penn, but turned around with two lackluster fights against Jake Ellenberger and Robbie Lawler. He bounced back from the Lawler loss with a solid performance over Demian Maia, but it was also listless at times.

Woodley is a very good wrestler with serious power in his hands, but he can find himself in trouble against the wrong guy in a striking battle. MacDonald is a very good striker with a good top game, but he can be taken down, and he's also gotten into the counter puncher trap where he's stuck waiting on a guy to engage. If that doesn't happen, it could be a long night here.

There are so many outcomes to this fight which seem realistic. Woodley could take MacDonald down several times and control at least two rounds to a decision. He could land that knockout blow early in the first round. MacDonald could turn the tables, plant Woodley on his back, and beat him up with ground and pound. He could sit back and counter punch long enough to win a couple of rounds. He could get more aggressive and land more strikes himself, perhaps even scoring the TKO win. He could get top position and work to a submission of his own. All of those are very possible outcomes for this fight. Ultimately, I'm not sure if we'll get the exciting versions of these guys or not, but I'll take what's probably the safe pick here.

PREDICTION: MacDonald by decision



Ryan Bader vs. Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante (Light Heavyweight)

This is another fight which seems to be winnable for both guys. Feijao's got major power, but has seemed quite unmotivated and off his game in the UFC thus far. Bader can be dominant against the right level of competition, but can also get himself in trouble at times.

Bader's a great wrestler, of course, but Feijao's not easy to take down. That said, Bader's also got a ton of power, and Cavalcante has found himself on the wrong end of big power in the past.

It's entirely possible that Feijao comes out looking the best he's been since his peak in Strikeforce, but given what we've seen of him in the UFC thus far I don't know that anyone can bank on that. And also, Bader is a much better fighter than the last guy Feijao fought in Igor Pokrajac. Ultimately, I don't trust Feijao's chin in what's probably going to be a firefight. He could wind up catching Bader, but I think the American comes back strong on Saturday night.

PREDICTION: Bader by TKO in the first round



Andrei Arlovski vs. Brendan Schaub (Heavyweight)

Arlovski returns to the UFC after six years hopping from organization to organization around the world, and he's hoping for a big homecoming against Schaub.

The former UFC Heavyweight Champion is, perhaps surprisingly, 6-1 with one no contest over his last eight fights coming in, and still possesses knockout power in his strikes. His chin had been a major letdown for a time, but he's taken some pretty hard shots the last few years and has avoided getting knocked out.

As for Schaub, he looked excellent against Matt Mitrione in his last outing, less so in the previous win over Lavar Johnson, but he himself has been knocked out a few times in his UFC career. That's absolutely something that Arlovski could accomplish, but Schaub has the power to put him out as well. He could also try to out-grapple him, much like he did in his last two fights, rather than risk a firefight.

Given his penchant for not winning those types of fights, it's likely Schaub will look to make this a bit of an ugly fight, and if he can avoid getting knocked out, he's probably better equipped to win some rounds that way.

PREDICTION: Schaub by decision



Ovince St. Preux vs. Ryan Jimmo (Light Heavyweight)

Jimmo's a big step up from Nikita Krylov for OSP in this fight. He's a good grappler with KO power when he connects, but he's got a (deserved) reputation for less than thrilling fights.

OSP is more often than not highly entertaining to watch, overwhelming opponents with his grappling and ground and pound, but he's also got a solid striking game as well.

He'll have a little bit of a height and reach advantage over Jimmo, though it may not come into play as much if they wind up grappling with one another. If he can keep it standing, Jimmo can be out-struck, but we haven't seen OSP face a lot of high level opposition in his career thus far. Jimmo's in that range, and it's a step up St. Preux has to find a way to move past.

PREDICTION: Jimmo by decision