...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!
By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
The UFC's annual Memorial Day weekend pay-per-view is here on Saturday night, as UFC 173 hits the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. With one of the best fighters in the sport putting his now official title on the line, along with a strong supporting cast, Saturday's card is honestly a deep, strong event from top to bottom. It might not be reflected in the pay-per-view buys it ultimately garners, but it should be an excellent event for those who do purchase the card. Here's how I see things playing out.
Renan Barao vs. T.J. Dillashaw (Bantamweight Championship)
The UFC Bantamweight Champion's credentials don't need to be repeated here. He's fast, he's strong, he's got violent finishing instincts with his strikes, and he's got brutal submission ability on the ground.
He may be without equal at 135 lbs. A prime Dominick Cruz would certainly make his argument, and at his peak he'd at least have the speed to give Barao a different look, but without him in the mix, Barao's proven with his two wins over Urijah Faber just how far ahead of the pack he is.
Dillashaw enters with a mostly successful UFC resume, with just a KO loss to John Dodson and a close decision to Raphael Assuncao working against him. He's beaten a bunch of solid competitors, and he's shown himself to be exciting and fun to watch.
However, nothing we've seen from him to date suggests he's even as good as his Team Alpha Male fore-bearer in Faber, let alone anywhere near Barao's level in any aspect of the game. I really like Dillashaw as a fighter, but this is just a bad matchup for him, and I can't see this opportunity ending well for him.
PREDICTION: Barao via TKO in the first round
Daniel Cormier vs. Dan Henderson (Light Heavyweight)
Henderson's getting this opportunity because of a ridiculous comeback win over Shogun Rua in a fight in which he was almost stopped early on. That came after a KO loss to Vitor Belfort as well, and he's been knocked down more than any fighter in Pride, Strikeforce, and UFC history combined.
Cormier sports an unblemished record for a reason. He's as good a wrestler as Henderson's been in his MMA record, and given he concentrates on that aspect of his game he's better. Henderson has more power with that right hand punch, but Cormier's become quite adept with his striking game as well, and in the clinch he can be a nightmare.
Honestly, for as crazy as Henderson's KO over Shogun was, I think the story stops here for him. Cormier moves into his title fight against the Jones-Gustafsson winner, and I think it happens convincingly.
PREDICTION: Cormier via TKO in the second round
Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger (Welterweight)
Robbie Lawler shocked the hell out of everyone with a great fight against Johny Hendricks in March, and showcased improved takedown defense in the process.
He also remains a fantastically entertaining striker, with one hell of a chin, and when he's able to dictate the pace of the fight, he's proven he can be as good as they come at 170 lbs.
Ellenberger's returning after nearly a year out of action, off the worst performance of his career. He's got some very good striking skills of his own, and he's a good wrestler in his own right. However, in this particular fight, I think the improvements in Lawler's takedown defense are a huge factor in this fight, and if he can control where the fight takes place, he's the better striker of the two, and I think he takes this fight handily in that case.
PREDICTION: Lawler via TKO in the second round
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Francisco Rivera (Bantamweight)
Mizugaki's been on a hell of a run in his last four wins, but they've all come by decision, with a couple of narrow victories in that stretch.
Rivera, on the other hand, is the epitome of a finisher, and he's absolutely a "live by the sword, die by the sword" fighter in that his only losses have come by fighters stopping him. Mizugaki's not doing that.
I think Rivera's the type of matchup that will bring Mizugaki back down to the fold, because he's been rising up perhaps above where he's truly belonged. Maybe he proves me wrong with a big win here, but I just don't think this is his fight.
PREDICTION: Rivera via KO in the second round
Jamie Varner vs. James Krause (Lightweight)
If this fight took place even a year or two ago, there's no question in my mind I'd have picked Varner in a heartbeat. But this isn't a year or two ago, and he's lost three of four fights, getting knocked out cold in brutal fashion his last time out.
Krause was on a hell of a run at lightweight, and looked fantastic against Sam Stout in his UFC debut. His loss to Bobby Green was not without controversy, and I honestly place a lot more on the groin shots than anything in that loss.
Varner can hurt Krause, but I have concerns about his chin in his first fight after a brutal loss. I think if Krause can avoid getting hurt himself, he just may be able to finish this fight late.
PREDICTION: Krause via submission in the third round
=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====
-Michael Chiesa over Francisco Trinaldo via submission in the first round
-Tony Ferguson over Katsunori Kikuno via TKO in the second round
-Chris Holdsworth over Chico Camus via submission in the first round
-Al Iaquinta over Mitch Clarke via decision
-Anthony Njokuani over Vinc Pichel via TKO in the second round
-Sam Sicilia over Aaron Phillips via TKO in the second round
-David Michaud over Li JingLiang via decision
DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
Interested in joining MMATorch's writing team? Send idea for a theme to your column (for Specialist section) or area of interest (i.e. TV Reporter) along with a sample of writing to mmatorch@gmail.com.
