Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 40 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight predictions for "Brown vs. Silva" event
May 9, 2014 - 11:55:09 PM UFC FIGHT NIGHT 40 PREVIEW: Penick's main card quick thoughts and fight predictions for "Brown vs. Silva" event

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC is bringing a six-fight main card to Fox Sports 1 from Cincinnati on Saturday night with UFC Fight Night 40. There are a few intriguing matchups on the card, so let's take a quick look at the fights coming to FS1.

Matt Brown vs. Erick Silva (Welterweight): This should be a highly entertaining matchup regardless of where it goes, and I have a hard time seeing it last long. Whether it's a major brawl on the feet or Silva getting Brown to the ground and working his submission game, someone's getting finished, and I think it'll happen within the first eight minutes of the fight.

While Erick Silva hits really hard, I honestly think he's in a lot of trouble if he gets into a toe to toe firefight with Brown. Brown isn't the most technical striker, but he has a knack for finding his target, and he's damn near impossible to knock out.

However, the glaring weakness in his game has been submission defense, and if Silva can work him to the ground - which in itself is not a guarantee anymore with Brown working on his takedown defense - he has a serious edge there. Unfortunately for the young Brazilian, he seems far too eager to get into those firefights, and I think it costs him here tomorrow. Brown via TKO in the first round.


Costas Philippou vs. Lorenz Larkin (Middleweight): Philippou got lit up by Luke Rockhold in his last fight, while Larkin had a bad performance against Brad Tavares.

Larkin's a flashy and talented striker when he's turning that part of his game off, and he has solid takedown defense. He had a mental block in the Tavares fight, and needs to rebound in a big way here.

Philippou's in an even more desperate spot after suffering two straight losses, but Larkin's not the grinding wrestler that Francis Carmont was against Philippou, and he doesn't have the power Rockhold did. He still might be better. This will be close, and depends what version of each of them shows up. Larkin via decision.


Erik Koch vs. Daron Cruickshank (Lightweight): This is guaranteed violence here. Both fighters are exciting on the feet, with deceptive power and solid chins.

Koch is much better suited for 155 lbs., as the cut to featherweight was really not doing him any favors. He showcased what he can do at his best in his win over Rafaello Oliveira in February, and he's poised to do the same here.

Cruickshank's got a solid chin, and a really relentless attack when he's at his best. He does really well in damage accumulation, though he's not invulnerable to a dangerous attack. This could be close, but it will probably come down to which of them breaks first. Koch via TKO in the second round.


Neil Magny vs. Tim Means (Welterweight): Means returns to the UFC in a new division after two wins outside of the organization. The former lightweight is a very heavy hitter, but he's been prone to getting ground out to decision losses, as happened against Jorge Masvidal and Danny Castillo.

Neil Magny is bigger than both of those fighters, he's got a strong wrestling and top game, and as he showed against Gasan Umalatov in his last outing, he can employ that. He's not infallible, and he's not great, but he's good enough to stay out of harm's way on the feet and to bring this fight to the ground where he can score points. Survive 15 minutes and this fight will probably be his. Magny via decision.


Soa Palelei vs. Ruan Potts (Heavyweight): Palelei looked awful at UFC 164 against Nikita Krylov despite eventually securing the TKO win, and Pat Barry gave him no resistance on a takedown attempt to the mount and his TKO win there.

Potts is a UFC newcomer out of South Africa with eight career wins, all by stoppage. His only loss came by decision, and it's a loss he avenged in a rubber match against a man he's now submitted twice.

Palelei's got power and can do damage from top position, but I'm going to take Potts here. I think he'll make it through any early offense from Palelei, and won't gas out the way Krylov did. Potts via submission in the second round.


Chris Cariaso vs. Louis Smolka (Flyweight): Smolka looked excellent in his debut against Alptekin Ozkilic, and though Cariaso's been a very consistent competitor, I think the young Hawaiian is easily the brighter prospect.

The question becomes whether or not Smolka can step up to remain undefeated here. Cariaso isn't great in any one area, but he's very good as an all around fighter. He's capable of scoring points and winning fights. Here, though, I think Smolka has a chance to take a big step up in the division. Smolka via submission in the second round.


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Rafael Natal over Ed Herman via decision
-Kyoji Horiguchi over Darrell Montague via TKO in the first round
-Yan Cabral over Zak Cummings via submission in the second round
-Eddie Wineland over Johnny Eduardo via decision
-Nik Lentz over Manny Gamburyan via TKO in the second round
-Justin Salas over Ben Wall via decision
-Albert Tumenov over Anthony Lapsley via TKO in the first round

Get in on the conversation in our new comments section! If you're viewing this on the new mobile version of our site, join or start a discussion in the Disqus comments section below!