Penick's Take
UFC 172 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Jones vs. Teixeira" event
Apr 25, 2014 - 11:45:14 PM UFC 172 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight predictions for "Jones vs. Teixeira" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

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Jon Jones is back in action on Saturday night, gunning for yet another title defense when he takes on Glover Teixeira in the main event of UFC 172. There are a number of likely entertaining fights, but there may wind up being a lot of one-sided action on the card as well. Here's how I see things panning out tomorrow:


Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira (Light Heavyweight Championship)

Glover Teixeira hasn't lost a fight in over nine years, but he's also never fought anyone even close to Jon Jones, either.

Jones' only "loss" is the disqualification for illegal elbows against Matt Hamill, and he's shown a variety of finishing ability with a series of submission wins and TKO victories.

It should be clear coming in that Jones is a clear favorite for a reason. Teixeira is not the biggest challenge he's faced, and despite the victories he's logged in the UFC, I have a hard time seeing just what he can do to the Champion.

Sure, Jones isn't infallible. He's been hit before, he had a rough outing against Gustafsson for the first half of their fight last September, he almost let himself get caught in an armbar by Vitor Belfort, etc. But outside of a few humanizing moments, Jones has been nothing short of spectacular.

He uses his striking range and reach advantage very well, when he gets on top he has a fantastic ground and pound as well as submission game, and in the clinch he's extremely dangerous as well. He has so many weapons at his disposal, and he's also so fluid and innovative with how he uses those weapons.

Teixeira hits hard and has a good submission game, it's true. If he catches Jones with a big right hand he can certainly do damage, and he's very good at accumulating strikes. He's also not nearly as fast as the Champ, and he doesn't have the same height and reach issues Gustafsson had to offer against Jones.

While you can't entirely discount the potential for Teixeira to land the killshot, I think it's just a lot more likely that this is Jones' fight anywhere he wants to take it. I think Teixeira's lengthy run comes to an end.

PREDICTION: Jones via submission in the third round


Phil Davis vs. Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (Light Heavyweight)

Phil Davis is an excellent wrestler with some submission skills, though his striking is definitely the weakest part of his game. Johnson's an excellent striker who has had issues against really good wrestlers in the past.

Johnson's been fighting very well as of late to get this opportunity back with the UFC, but while he's capable of stopping just about anyone if he catches them, that's not at all an easy proposition against Davis.

As Rich Hansen commented during our Livecast on Thursday night, this matchup feels a lot like Johnson's bout with Josh Koscheck back in 2009.

While a Johnson KO over someone like Davis would breathe some new life into the top end of the division and put him on the path to title contention, it's a lot more likely that Davis gets him to the ground and makes it a rough night for him.

PREDICTION: Davis via submission in the second round



Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Boetsch (Middleweight)

Though Boetsch has proven to be a mostly durable competitor, this is set up as a placeholder for Rockhold, who looked fantastic in his last outing against a man who beat Boetsch, Costas Philippou.

Honestly, I'll be surprised if Rockhold has a slip up here. More than likely, this is a continuation of what he showed against Philippou, and I think he can get back to what he was doing consistently in Strikeforce for a time.

PREDICTION: Rockhold via submission in the first round



Jim Miller vs. Yancy Medeiros (Lightweight)

Give Yancy Medeiros a ton of credit for stepping in against a guy like Miller on a week's notice. He was already on the card, of course, and as such is at least in full fighting shape for the bout. That said, he's stepping in against a savvy veteran capable of controlling fights and scoring submissions out of nowhere.

Medeiros is a hard hitting fighter with a height and reach advantage over Miller, and he's got good finishing instincts as well. His only career loss came because of a fluky injury as he defended a takedown, and he's shown a number of good things in the cage even though we've only seen a small amount of his capability in the UFC.

Miller also didn't look great in his last two fights. He picked up a win over Fabricio Camoes, but wasn't looking great prior to the armbar he locked on while on his back. He's got that as a backup, but if he comes in better than he did in that fight, he could also win enough of two rounds to take a decision.

PREDICTION: Miller via decision



Max Holloway vs. Andre Fili (Featherweight)

I like Max Holloway as a fighter, but while he's been entertaining in a few fights, I don't think he's particularly great in any area. We've only seen one short notice performance from Fili in the UFC, but he made a big impression in his win over Jeremy Larsen.

The 23-year-old Team Alpha Male product is a very good finisher, and I think he's got a higher upside than Holloway into this one.

PREDICTION: Fili via TKO in the second round


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Joseph Benavidez over Tim Elliott via TKO RD 2
-Isaac Vallie-Flagg over Takanori Gomi via DEC
-Jessamyn Duke over Bethe Correia via SUB RD 2
-Danny Castillo over Charlie Brenneman via TKO RD 1
-Patrick Williams over Chris Beal via SUB RD 2