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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
UFC on Fox 11 hits Orlando, Fla., on Saturday night, with Travis Browne fighting Fabricio Werdum with a shot at the UFC Heavyweight Championship on the line. The four-fight main card features a couple of interesting fights, though it's far from the most relevant or compelling event the UFC has put on network TV. Still, the main event is the most significant heavyweight fight the UFC could have booked outside of a title bout, and makes for an intriguing matchup. Here's how I see the main card playing out:
Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne (Heavyweight)
Werdum's been out for ten months, while Browne has scored his two biggest career wins in a row in that time. Browne enters with a ton of momentum and confidence, and has a skillset which has proven to be a detriment to Werdum's game in the past.
There's no question that Werdum has a grappling and submission edge in the fight, and if he can take Browne to the ground and get him in a bad spot, he'll have a very real chance at stopping the fight. However, getting Browne to the ground has been a tricky proposition for two of the last three guys who have attempted to do that.
Browne can be hit. He got knocked out by "Bigfoot" Silva after tearing his hamstring and nearly got stopped by Alistair Overeem. However, while Werdum's striking has improved, it's not on the level of the guys who have done serious damage to Browne.
To contrast that, Browne's takedown defense methods have proven to be lethal, as he knocked out both Gabriel Gonzaga and Josh Barnett with brutal elbows while holding off their takedown attempts.
Honestly, for as good as Werdum has been since returning to the UFC, I think this may be Travis Browne's time. It should be a really good fight, but I think Browne can stamp his own claim on a title fight later this year.
PREDICTION: Browne by TKO in the third round
Miesha Tate vs. Liz Carmouche (Women's Bantamweight)
The loser of this fight I believe will be the first woman to lose three fights in the UFC. That they both lost to Ronda Rousey in one of those gives them a little leeway to keep their roster spot regardless of how this goes, but Tate is surely desperate to pick up her first UFC win.
Carmouche makes for a very tough opponent for Tate because she's a talented wrestler with very good ground and pound and a decent striking game. That's very much Tate's game as well.
Tate's probably got a slight striking edge, and may be able to out-point Carmouche if the fight stays on the feet. There's also the fact that Carmouche hasn't ever beat an elite talent and, no matter what you think of Tate outside of the cage, she's elite in this division.
Honestly, I think it's quite possible Tate controls two rounds of this fight to win a decision. It's almost equally as likely that Carmouche can do enough through two of three rounds to take one herself. I don't think either of them is stopping the other at this stage, and as such I expect a close and competitive fight tomorrow night. I'll throw out a possibly questionable pick.
PREDICTION: Carmouche by decision
Donald Cerrone vs. Edson Barboza (Lightweight)
Edson Barboza has had some issue with grapplers in the past, but in fights where it's almost strictly a stand-up battle, he's deadly.
While Cerrone is certainly more well-versed in his ground game, he's more than content trying to knock a guy's head off.
This one's pretty simple. It's exciting as all hell, and should be massively entertaining for however long it lasts, but Cerrone's in trouble here. This matchup just plays right into Barboza's game, and I think he gets a major win here.
PREDICTION: Barboza by TKO in the second round
Brad Tavares vs. Yoel Romero (Middleweight)
Tavares doesn't get stopped, and he finds ways to win fights. Romero is a fantastic wrestler with massive power in his hands, though he has some cardio issues.
This is kind of a level check for both fighters. Can Tavares beat a guy with the weapons Romero possesses? Can Romero stop a guy who's been unstoppable in the UFC thus far?
From a matchup standpoing, while Tavares doesn't do any one thing particularly great, he does a lot of things well. That includes using his range and moving away from damage after scoring strikes of his own.
Romero's got knockout power, he was an Olympic medalist in wrestling, and he's got more ways to win this fight than Tavares. That said, he leaves himself open to strikes, and can be taken into deep waters. He's mostly still had success, but he doesn't have a ton of overall fight experience.
If a guy's going to stop Tavares, Romero might be the one to do it, but I think it's more likely we see this go the distance. At that point, it's a question of who had the most success. Either may stake that claim, but I'll take the former Olympian to move up the ladder.
PREDICTION: Romero by decision
=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====
-Khabib Nurmagomedov over Rafael dos Anjos by DEC
-Thiago Alves over Seth Baczynski by DEC
-Jorge Masvidal over Pat Healy by DEC
-Estevan Payan over Alex White by TKO RD 2
-Caio Magalhaes over Luke Zachrich by SUB RD 2
-Jordan Mein over Hernani Perpetuo by TKO RD 1
-Dustin Ortiz over Ray Borg by TKO RD 2
-Mirsad Bektic over Chas Skelly by TKO RD 2
-Derrick Lewis over Jack May by DEC
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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