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Penick's Take
UFC 171 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Hendricks vs. Lawler" event
Mar 14, 2014 - 6:45:54 PM
UFC 171 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Hendricks vs. Lawler" event
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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC will indeed crown a new Welterweight Champion on Saturday at UFC 171 after a scare Friday afternoon. Johny Hendricks made weight on his second attempt, keeping the title in play for both he and Robbie Lawler in the night's main event. It headlines the 13-fight card in Dallas, with quite a few interesting matchups in play. Let's take a look at the card.


Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler (Welterweight Championship)

Hendricks looked a bit drained at the weigh-ins, and needing to cut an extra pound and a half after the fact certainly isn't positive. It lends a little wariness for those wholly confident in Hendricks winning this, because if he's diminished in any way by the weight cut, that may be enough to sway things into Lawler's favor.

The fight could be a straight up slug-fest, as both like knocking their opponents out and are very good at landing strikes. That said, Hendricks may know his wrestling game is a significant advantage here as well. Lawler has some solid wrestling, sure, and used it to his favor really well against Rory MacDonald. But this is Hendricks he's got in front of him now.

Hendricks can use his wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place, and can control the pace of the fight if that's how it plays out. Lawler is savvy enough on the ground not to take a ton of damage, but he's left himself open for submissions in the past. That's not likely to play into this fight with Hendricks not ever showing much in the way of submissions.

It comes back to the striking game, and whether Hendricks leaves an opening. Lawler can hurt anyone he can land on, and Hendricks won't be excluded from that. Still, Hendricks has a hell of a left hand himself, and if he connects on Lawler he can put him away.

I think we may see Hendricks trying to wear Lawler down early, because he'll have a cardio edge. If he does that, he won't have as much to fear in a slugfest later on in the fight. Despite the weight cut issues, this is still probably his fight to lose, but I won't be shocked if Lawler finds his chin. With that said...

PREDICTION: Hendricks via TKO in the fourth round


Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley (Welterweight)

Carlos Condit has a problem with getting taken down frequently, and Tyron Woodley can be a relentless wrestler. There begins and ends the threat Woodley presents to "The Natural Born Killer."

Woodley absolutely has the wrestling ability to plant Condit on his back and score points. That's a danger Condit hasn't always been the best at dealing with and it's cost him a few fights.

However, Woodley fancies himself a striker these days as well, and isn't above standing and trading strikes with an opponent. That's a bad idea against Condit, of course, and even on the ground Condit can be quite dangerous. If Woodley does take him down, he won't keep him there, and he'll have to score several takedowns to make it a factor. If he does that, it could wear him down earlier in the fight as well.

That leaves an opening for Condit to change the pace to his favor, and if he starts throwing from there, he can put most anyone away.

PREDICTION: Condit via TKO in the third round


Diego Sanchez vs. Myles Jury (Lightweight)

Sanchez has it in his head that the very fact that he went three rounds with Gilbert Melendez and that the crowd was cheering makes him on par in the division. That's just not the case in 2014, and it's delusional to think otherwise.

Myles Jury is a talented young fighter at only 25-years-old, and though he had a terrible fight with Mike Ricci in his last outing, he's got much more than that to offer.

Jury is very talented on the ground, and he's got some solid and accurate striking that can work well against Sanchez's wild and inaccurate blows.

Jury isn't on Melendez's level himself, of course, but if he gets into a firefight with Sanchez I think he can hold his own. What he has to look out for is Sanchez winning over judges with activity, even if he's missing strikes. I think he can do enough here, but it's likely to appear close.

PREDICTION: Jury via decision


Jake Shields vs. Hector Lombard (Welterweight)

This fight could be boring as all hell, or it could end quickly. There's not a ton of in between here.

Shields is best in his grappling game, but he's going against a highly talented judoka who is a former Olympian to boot. Shields isn't bringing this fight to his playhouse unless Lombard wants to humor him there, and on the feet he doesn't offer much of anything.

That brings it to what Lombard's going to do. This could be one of those fights where he scores a quick knockout, but Shields has a very good chin to take what's thrown his way. If he doesn't get knocked down and out early, we're likely to see quite a bit of tentative action on the feet.

I'll go out on a limb with a finish prediction, which will be highly impressive if Lombard actually pulls it off.

PREDICTION: Lombard via TKO in the first round


Ovince St. Preux vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight)

Krylov scored a nice head kick win over Walt Harris to make a better second impression in the UFC his last time out, but he still looked awful in his debut against Soa Palelei.

St. Preux is a legitimate talent who has had several dominant performances and a number of entertaining stoppage wins of his own. He's good on the feet, he's good on the ground, and he's better than Krylov in every area of this fight.

Krylov could make it competitive if his last fight was more indicative of what he can do, but I like St. Preux in the long run here.

PREDICTION: St. Preux via TKO in the second round


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks======

-Kelvin Gastelum over Rick Story via submission in the second round
-Jessica Andrade over Raquel Pennington via decision
-Dennis Bermudez over Jimy Hettes via decision
-Alex Garcia over Sean Spencer via submission in the first round
-Francisco Trevino over Renee Forte via TKO in the second round
-Justin Scoggins over Will Campuzano via TKO in the second round
-Sean Strickland over Bubba McDaniel via TKO in the second round
-Daniel Pineda over Robert Whiteford via submission in the third round


DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
UFC 195 PREVIEW: Penick's main card preview and fight picks for "Lawler vs. Condit" event
Penick's 2015 MMA Awards: "Submission of the Year" - Ronda Rousey's inverted armbar over Cat Zingano at UFC 184
Penick's 2015 MMA Awards: "KO of the Year" - Holly Holm's head kick over Ronda Rousey at UFC 193

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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)

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