Penick's Take
UFC 170 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Rousey vs. McMann" event
Feb 21, 2014 - 11:15:23 PM UFC 170 PREVIEW: Penick's main card breakdown and fight picks for "Rousey vs. McMann" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Ronda Rousey and Sara McMann headline Saturday's UFC 170 event, three weeks after the last UFC pay-per-view event. The main card isn't the strongest the UFC has put on pay-per-view, of course, but they've got a couple of very good matchups, and a solid undercard as well. Here's how I see things for Saturday night:


Ronda Rousey vs. Sara McMann (Women's Bantamweight Championship)

There's no question that Ronda Rousey is capable of catching armbars no matter how prepared a fighter might be for the attack. There's been plenty of talk from her camp about her improvements in the striking game, but it's her judo and her armbar technique especially that is so fantastic it's simply a game changing move in any matchup.

Even if a fighter can break free from it the first time, or even the second time, or even the third time, there will be another attempt, and she just needs the right moment to finish the hold.

McMann is going to be easily the strongest fighter Rousey has yet faced, and her wrestling and ground and pound attack are a serious threat for what Rousey does. However, Rousey is far too adept on the ground to be put away easily, and the longer the fight goes on, the more opportunity she has to catch that armbar.

Rousey's striking might be more of a factor in the fight than in past bouts, just because there's certainly a chance their respective grappling skills offset one another. In that situation, I think Rousey is going to have an edge, even if it's only a slight one.

Still, this is a battle between two fantastic grapplers, and when it comes to what they've done in MMA competition, Rousey's proven what she can do time and time again. I don't see McMann being any different here.

PREDICTION: Rousey via submission in the first round


Daniel Cormier vs. Patrick Cummins (Light Heavyweight)

This is a fight that on its face shouldn't ever be booked, but for Cormier, any fight was better than no fight at all.

Cormier made the weight cut to 205 lbs. for the first time on Friday, and did so with ease. He wasn't overly gaunt or dehydrated on the scale, and it's likely he's not going to lose anything with this cut down.

Look, Cummins was a legitimate collegiate wrestler, he's stopped four fighters in his MMA career, and if taken lightly he can present a dangerous slip up to Cormier. That's not happening here.

Cormier is angry coming into this over the way Cummins has presented their previous training sessions, and that's overlooking what Cormier actually did to him in wrestling competition. Upsets happen in this sport, sure, I just don't see it actually happening on Saturday night.

PREDICTION: Cormier via TKO in the second round


Rory MacDonald vs. Demian Maia (Welterweight)

MacDonald and Maia are both supremely talented fighters in the welterweight division. Maia's extremely strong with his wrestling and jiu jitsu, and is elite as they come in his submission game. MacDonald is a vicious and patient striker, with some solid sweeps and a good ground and pound game.

MacDonald's problem in his last two fights was getting far too passive and not being as aggressive as he had in past fights. That led to a duller fight than he'd had before in a win over Jake Ellenberger, and saw him get taken down and beaten up by Robbie Lawler for much of their fight last November.

Now, he places some of that on the mental distractions of the constantly talked about GSP match-up, and wanted a fight as quickly as possible after the loss to shake that off and get back on top.

There is a lot of upside still in MacDonald, but Maia is as capable of putting MacDonald down and beating him up there or putting him in danger as Lawler was. And MacDonald isn't nearly as adept at sweeping out of those types of positions. That said, Maia can be taken down, and MacDonald is dangerous on top.

It's a tough matchup to pick here. I'm leaning towards a decision victory for MacDonald, but if he doesn't show up like he did against B.J. Penn and instead fights the way he did against Ellenberger and Lawler, Maia's going to be able to take advantage.

PREDICTION: MacDonald via decision


Mike Pyle vs. T.J. Waldburger (Welterweight)

Yes, Pyle got starched by Matt Brown last August, and he enters this fight as a 38-year-old with a lot of fight miles on his body. However, for as much as that Brown fight could spell a negative downslide to his run, it could have also just been a testament to what Brown was in the midst of doing himself.

On the other side of that, Waldburger's not the type of fighter to give Pyle as much trouble as others. Waldburger has a very good submission game, but Pyle is just as good on the ground, and is certainly capable of handling what Waldburger might try to throw his way on the ground.

If Waldburger can't bring it there, Pyle has a huge edge in the striking department, and Waldburger's chin is a serious detriment to his overall game. Pyle gets back on track here.

PREDICTION: Pyle via TKO in the first round


Stephen Thompson vs. Robert Whittaker (Welterweight)

"Wonderboy" Thompson is a highly accomplished striker, and he's only ever lost once in his professional fighting career. That came by decision to a very dangerous striker in Matt Brown, and he's shown he can take a punch even against a fighter who hits as hard as Brown does.

That makes the task a little more difficult for Whittaker, who has showcased his striking for the most part in his UFC run, and who is coming off a rougher performance against Court McGee.

If they stick to a strictly striking affair, Thompson's got a clear edge. He's elusive, he's not easy to hit, and he's very good at working from different angles to keep fighters off guard. Whittaker's never been stopped by strikes, and he can take a punch himself, but if he chooses to trade with Thompson it could be a long night.

That said, Whittaker's got a ground game as well that just hasn't been shown off in the UFC as much. He has as many submission wins as he does knockouts, and if can bring Thompson to the ground here, he could have an advantage there.

I think this is going to be a close and competitive fight, and though I believe Thompson has a real edge in the striking department, Whittaker's got a varied game that can help him pick up two rounds here.

PREDICTION: Whittaker via decision

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Alexis Davis over Jessica Eye via decision
-Raphael Assuncao over Pedro Munhoz via decision
-Aljamain Sterling over Cody Gibson via submission (round two)
-Zach Makovsky over Josh Sampo via decision
-Erik Koch over Rafaello Oliveira via TKO (round one)
-Yosdenis Cedeno over Ernest Chavez via decision