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Penick's Take
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 36 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and predictions
Feb 14, 2014 - 11:55:00 PM
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 36 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and predictions
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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC returns to Brazil on Saturday night, with Lyoto Machida hoping to get a fight for the UFC Middleweight Championship with a win over Gegard Mousasi. The five-fight main card airs live on Fox Sports 1 Saturday night, so let's take a look at what's coming up.


Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi (Middleweight)

Machida's first fight at middleweight wasn't the most ideal matchup. It was on short notice, pushing his 185 lb. debut up a week, and against a friend and former training partner in Mark Munoz.

That led to a hesitance from both to engage from the outset, until it finally came time to attack. And when he did, Machida took Munoz out with a head kick.

That's exactly the type of offense Machida is capable of at any point. The problem he's faced is that at other times is failing to pull the trigger, whether through his evasive style doing the work for him or from not trying to over-extend himself. Whatever the reason, those off fights have led to some less than compelling fights, and he can't afford that here.

Mousasi's had just one fight in the UFC, but it also wasn't representative of who and what he is as a fighter. The late replacement angle played into that fight last April when Alexander Gustafsson suffered a cut in training. He played it safe against an opponent he hadn't prepared for, and it wasn't his most exciting outing.

Make no mistake, Mousasi's a highly entertaining striker most of the time, and he's got skills on the ground despite a few issues in takedown defense and ground recovery. The question for him in this fight is whether or not he can connect while avoiding the elite counter-striking game of Machida.

That's not likely in this one. Machida looks fantastic at this weight, and if Mousasi tries to pursue aggressively he's likely to get in trouble. It's not going to happen early, as I think we'll see both of them play it cautious early on, but late, something's going to have to give. Machida by TKO in the third round.


Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Francis Carmont (Middleweight)

Souza is one of the premier submission fighters in the came, but he's added significant improvements in his striking game to where he's among the biggest threats anywhere you turn.

Carmont is a skilled grappler who has been quite consistent over the last six years of his career, including a perfect run inside the Octagon. That said, as the saying goes, anything he can do, Souza can do better, Souza can do anything better than him.

Carmont may try to avoid the grappling and test his striking, but that's not necessarily advisable against the power shown by Souza as of late. Then again, going to the ground with Jacare is far from an enviable position.

This is Souza's fight anywhere he wants it, to be honest. Carmont's unbeaten in nearly six years, but he's also never faced anyone of Souza's caliber. I think he tries to play his strengths in an attempt to overwhelm Souza, but I don't think that will work out for him. Souza by submission in the second round.


Erick Silva vs. Takenori Sato (Welterweight)

Sato's on a ten-fight unbeaten streak dating back to 2010, but the Japanese welterweight hasn't been fighting a high level of competition, and enters this fight with the Brazilian as simply an opponent.

Silva's been a bright prospect at times, but he's fallen short against top competition in the likes of Jon Fitch and Dong Hyun Kim. And in that Kim fight, there was a competitive nature to it before he was knocked out cold.

The 29-year-old Silva has a lot of dangerous weapons at his disposal, and while Sato's proven to be durable for the most part, there's just not anything special he brings to the table in this fight. Silva by TKO in the first.


Viscardi Andrade vs. Nicholas Musoke (Welterweight)

Both Andrade and Musoke looked pretty good in their respective UFC debuts, Andrade with a KO win over Bristol Marunde and Musoke with a nice submission over Alessio Sakara.

Each of them have won most of their fights by stoppage, with Musoke going to the judges just three times in his 13-fight career.

Andrade, fighting in his home country, will have a slight edge with the crowd behind him, but Musoke is a capable competitor. What we may have here is a slightly even matchup where the two can cancel each other out in a number of spots, and I'll take Musoke to come out the victor. Musoke by decision.


Charles Oliveira vs. Andy Ogle (Featherweight)

Charles Oliveira has four losses in his career, to Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson, Donald Cerrone, and Jim Miller. Andy Ogle isn't near the level of any of those names.

Oliveira is massively talented, but he's gone through a murderer's row of competition since coming into the UFC. While he's fallen short a few times, including two in a row, he's fantastic against competition that isn't quite at his level.

While Ogle has been a competitive fighter in his UFC run thus far, he's just not Oliveira's equal. He's hard to stop, and he's capable of giving fighters a competitive matchup for a time. That said, I can't see him offering up too much in this fight. Oliveira gained a lot of confidence even in defeat against Frankie Edgar, and he should get back in the win column with this fight. Oliveira by submission in the second round


DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
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Penick's 2015 MMA Awards: "KO of the Year" - Holly Holm's head kick over Ronda Rousey at UFC 193

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EDITORS:

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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)

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