Penick's Take
UFC ON FOX 10 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Henderson vs. Thomson" event
Jan 24, 2014 - 11:55:58 PM UFC ON FOX 10 PREVIEW: Penick's main card thoughts and fight picks for "Henderson vs. Thomson" event

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Benson Henderson returns to Fox for the third time as a headliner in the UFC on Saturday night from Chicago, but the first without the UFC Lightweight Championship around his waist. Still, despite the lack of gold on the line, his bout with Josh Thomson will be a five-round fight, topping the four-fight main card from the United Center. Here's what's on tap Saturday night.


Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson (Lightweight)

Henderson hopes to bounce back from his loss to Anthony Pettis at UFC 164, just the third loss of his career, and the first since the last time he lost to Pettis. Thomson has lost just three times in the last seven years, two of which came to Gilbert Melendez in Strikeforce title fights.

This is legitimately two elite fighters squaring off here. Thomson didn't get enough credit because of being in Strikeforce and losing to Melendez - though his two losses came in close fights - and his win over Nate Diaz last April showcased that he's still very much got the skills to hang with top end talent.

Thomson's a good wrestler and a solid striker, capable of both pushing the pace and adjusting to what his opponent throws at him. He's simply consistently competitive, and it's not easy to put him away or get an edge for long stretches.

Henderson's very much cut from that same vein. He's got some finishing skills, but he's more about dictating the pace and tempo, keeping pressure on, and exerting control over situations. He wasn't able to do that against Pettis, as he got cracked by some hard body kicks that bothered him before the fight hit the ground and he got submitted.

What we've got in this fight are two fairly similar fighters. They've got good grappling skills to go along with proficient enough striking games to be competitive against anyone and to more often than not push their own pace in their own way. This particular fight comes down to which of them is going to be able to get that edge and press their game more than their opponent.

Henderson's more proven on that front against a higher level of fighter, even as his wins over Frankie Edgar (the second time) and Melendez were contested. It's going to be a tough fight for each of them on Saturday, but I believe Henderson will be able to take control of the pace of the fight for at least three rounds to pick up the win.

PREDICTION: Henderson via decision


Stipe Miocic vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (Heavyweight)

Miocic bounced back from a bad performance against Stefan Struve in his last outing, executing a good gameplan against Roy Nelson, out-striking him and beating him up for three rounds. He's got two stoppage wins in the UFC as well, and the loss to Struve is the only knock on his record.

Gonzaga is a former UFC Title challenger, though he went through a rough patch and nearly retired a few years ago. He's come back strong, though, and save for the elbows he took from Travis Browne last year, he's looked largely excellent since returning to the UFC two years ago.

The issue at hand in this fight is whether Miocic's performance against Nelson was a reflection of where he's at, or a reflection of Nelson declining or having simply a bad fight. Gonzaga has stopping power with his strikes, and he's got a huge edge in the submission department.

If Gonzaga can avoid getting lit up early on, he's very capable of wearing Miocic down, and either beating him up on the feet or getting him to the ground to submit him. For as good as Miocic looked against Nelson, I feel like this is actually a tougher fight at this stage. He may very well continue his advancement, but I think Gonzaga's got more ways to win this fight.

PREDICTION: Gonzaga via TKO in the second round


Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins (Lightweight)

Martins made a very impressive UFC debut in November when he scored a submission win over Daron Cruickshank, and he's a well rounded veteran on a nice run right now.

Cerrone had a nice bounce back win over Evan Dunham in November himself after a bad performance against Rafael dos Anjos last August. However, that's exactly the kind of inconsistency that has plagued him in the last year and a half.

Both are highly well rounded fighters with significant ground skills who are also pretty good on the feet as well. That's a really nice stylistic matchup, but it's hard to say either has a clear edge with how simply unreliable Cerrone has been. He should be better into this fight, but Martins could surprise him. It's all dependent on Cerrone showing up and performing to his capabilities. I think he's a slightly better striker, and that could be the difference through the 15 minute fight.

PREDICTION: Cerrone via decision


Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens (Featherweight)

Stephens has looked considerably solid in two fights at featherweight, especially with the head kick KO win he pulled off against Rony Jason last fall.

Elkins is a very good featherweight fighter, having won six of seven fights in the division, with his sole loss coming on short notice against one of the top fighters in the division, Chad Mendes.

Stephens is hard to finish, and highly competitive, but Elkins should have an edge just about everywhere here. If Stephens can crack him early, he can certainly stop him, of course, but Elkins should be able to control this fight for most of it.

PREDICTION: Elkins via decision


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Sergio Pettis over Alex Caceres via SUB RD 2
-Eddie Wineland over Yves Jabouin via TKO RD 2
-Yaotzin Meza over Chico Camus via SUB RD 3
-Junior Hernandez over Hugo Viana via decision
-Daron Cruickshank over Mike Rio via TKO RD 1
-Mike Rhodes over George Sullivan via TKO RD 2
-Walt Harris over Nikita Krylov via TKO RD 1