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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
Despite injuries ravaging the UFC on Fox 9 card, Saturday's event remains one of the strongest free shows of 2013 from the UFC. With a fantastic Flyweight Championship rematch in the night's main event, a hugely relevant co-main event in the bantamweight division, and an increasingly more interesting featherweight fight also on the main card, there is just a ton to like out of Saturday's event. Here's how I see things playing out in Sacramento.
Demetrious "Mighty Mouse Johnson vs. Joseph Benavidez (UFC Flyweight Championship)
The first fight between these two last September was extremely close, and Johnson emerged with the win by split decision. Both have looked even more impressive in the fights they've had since then, and enter the rematch as the clear top two flyweights in the UFC.
Johnson was able to throw Benavidez off in that first fight, using his footwork and speed to keep Benavidez off his rhythm for most of the five round bout. However, Benavidez seemed simply off his game in general in that fight, and has rebounded with an impressive three-fight run since then.
He beat Ian McCall more convincingly than "Mighty Mouse," then stopped Darren Uyenoyama and Jussier Formiga in consecutive fights. Johnson looked good late against John Dodson, and was clearly the superior fighter to John Moraga in July. That said, it's the early portions of the Dodson fight that may be the key here.
Dodson was landing some really big exchanges in the early portion of that fight, and it was Johnson's superior cardio that took control from the third round on. That's not an edge he's going to have against Benavidez, who should come out with a much better performance in this rematch.
If Benavidez fights a more aggressive fight this time around and doesn't get in his own head, he can push the pace and bring the fight to the Champion. With local partisan crowd behind him, I think he gets it done this time.
PREDICTION: Benavidez via TKO in the third round
Urijah Faber vs. Michael McDonald (Bantamweight)
Despite losses in his last several title opportunities, Urijah Faber remains an elite talent at bantamweight. Michael McDonald looked fantastic in his last performance against Brad Pickett, but was out of his league against an elite fighter in Renan Barao in February.
This is a really interesting fight between two supremely talented fighters, and it's legitimately the best bantamweight fight the UFC could put on outside of the title picture right now. That said, Faber's got the clear edge here.
The fighters who have had the most success against Faber were guys who could employ an outside striking game while avoiding the ground. McDonald is a really good fighter, but his takedown defense isn't on the level of a Dominick Cruz or Renan Barao. Faber understands the striking power McDonald possesses, so testing his chin can't be on top of list of things to do in this fight.
If Faber can successfully make this a ground fight, his submission game is excellent, and it's something that McDonald has been bested by in the past. I think Faber's still got one last title fight in him, and he gets there through a win in this fight.
PREDICTION: Faber by submission in the second round
Chad Mendes vs. Nik Lentz (Featherweight)
With Chad Mendes showcasing his striking power in his current four fight winning streak, it's become increasingly clear that he's as good as it gets in the featherweight division. He's got the wrestling, the striking, the submissions; he's a total package as a fighter, and if he got another shot at Jose Aldo, I honestly believe it'd be no worse than a toss up for him.
It's in holding him in that regard that the following remains true: Nik Lentz might be his kryptonite.
If you look at the list of names that Mendes has competed against in the featherweight division, there isn't a name on that list with the skill set of Lentz. He's fought a number of strikers, a number of submission artists, but he's not once fought a dominating wrestler with a good ground and pound game.
Lentz at 145 lbs. is a really big guy, and since moving to the division with the help of nutritionist Mike Dolce he's been an absolute beast. To add to that, this is the first camp he's had since moving from Minnesota to Florida for good, meaning he's been able to concentrate on the fight itself and not be distracted by traveling away from home to train.
This is a huge test for both fighters. Lentz hasn't had to deal with the combination of wrestling and striking power Mendes represents, but conversely, Mendes' lack of experience against fellow wrestlers, combined with a shift in concentration to his striking game, could be his downfall.
I do believe Mendes might be the best featherweight in the world, but I honestly believe this is one of the toughest fights stylistically that he's yet faced. The question is whether or not he can pass that test.
I think Lentz has a very real chance to win this fight, and he very well may do it, but I have a hard time picking against a guy I've maintained is the best in the division. Going with a coin flip pick here, and I'll take Mendes to (perhaps barely) pull this one out. That said, if Lentz pulls this off, give that man his title fight.
PREDICTION: Mendes via decision
Joe Lauzon vs. Mac Danzig (Lightweight)
We should have had this space to talk about the merits of Carlos Condit and Matt Brown, but that fight is unfortunately no longer on this card. Instead we have a couple of longtime UFC lightweight veterans who need a win badly.
I don't know that Joe Lauzon has looked worse in his UFC career than he did in his last outing against Michael Johnson. It was a disconcerting slide following a beating at the hands of Jim Miller, and even in his last win over Jamie Varner, he was losing until scoring a submission win in the third round.
On the other side is Ultimate Fighter season six winner Danzig, who was knocked out by Melvin Guillard in his last fight after a split decision loss to Takanori Gomi.
Danzig's got enough acumen on the ground to avoid Lauzon's strengths, I believe, and though he doesn't have a ton of recent success, I think he has more in the tank right now than Lauzon does. I just don't see Lauzon's clear path to victory at this stage, not against someone who can avoid his submission game on the ground.
PREDICTION: Danzig by decision
=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====
-Court McGee over Ryan LaFlare by decision
-Edson Barboza over Danny Castillo by TKO in the second round
-Pat Healy over Bobby Green by decision
-Scott Jorgensen over Zach Makovsky by TKO in the second round
-Sam Stout over Cody McKenzie by decision
-Abel Trujillo over Roger Bowling by TKO in the first round
-Alptekin Ozkilic over Darren Uyenoyama by decision
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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