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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief After months of hype we're now just days away from one of the single most anticipated fights in UFC history. With the absolutely tremendous UFC Primetime series helping to fan the already burning flames in this battle between B.J. Penn and Geroges St. Pierre, the stakes are higher than ever. Both fighters are out to not only prove their superiority but to cement their legacy in the sport as one of the greatest fighters ever. Neither is taking that lightly coming in. But before we can get to the main event, we've got a full night's worth of great MMA action serve as an appetizer to the night's main course.
Preliminary Card - Quick Thoughts and Picks
Chris Wilson vs. John Howard: Very tough test for the rookie John Howard to enter the UFC with. All that needs to be known for this fight is there's a six inch height difference between the two in Wilson's favor, and unless Howard's got something really special that will be the deciding factor.
My pick - Wilson via tko in round one.
Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer: Both alumni of the Ultimate Fighter house (Arroyo on season six, Cramer on season seven), both fighters have been out of action for some time. In fact, this will be Cramer's professional MMA debut as an injury held him off the finale for his season of the Ultimate Fighter. Arroyo's got some fights under his belt and that experience should carry him to an easy victory.
My pick - Arroyo via submission in round one.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares: After seeing Gamburyan almost get his head knocked off from a downed Rob Emerson in :12 live at UFC 87, and taking into account that Thiago Taveres has dropped two straight fights as well, this is a tough fight to pick. It's all dependant on which version of each fighter shows up, but overall I think Tavares is the better fighter and will pick up a much needed win early in the second.
My pick - Tavares via tko in round two.
Jake O'Brien vs. Christian Wellisch: Both Jake O'Brien and Christian Wellisch are making the cut to light heavyweight following losses in the heavyweight division, and as such this fight could go a few ways. If either fighter has difficulty making the drop it will be a death knell for their chances in this one. If they make it with ease, this could be a hell of a brawl. O'Brien's only career losses have come against Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez, and he's shown some very good skills outside of those losses to this point. His wrestling is superior, but Wellisch has a great ground game himself, so this one could very well stay standing. If that's the case, it's anyone's ball game and I would not at all be surprised to see either fighter take it. Again, it depends on the cut, because if one guy gasses early it's curtains for him (lacey, gently wafting curtains).
My pick - Wellisch via submission in round three.
Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono: It still amazes me that this fight is on the prelims and not on the main card after the performance Fitch put in at UFC 87, but I suppose it's a natural fallout from crossing the boss. Either way, the story here will be how Fitch responds after his first loss in five years, but in all honesty I don't think Gono has a chance at the upset. There's no reason to think that anyone outside* of GSP can beat Jon Fitch right now in the welterweight division, because nobody did as he made his way up to that title fight(*Thiago Alves would be the only other name that I'd put in that spot). I think Fitch will come out with a dominating performance, although it may take awhile to finish Gono off.
My pick - Fitch via tko in round three.
Main Card Quick Thoughts and Picks
Clay Guida vs. Nate Diaz: This should be one fun fight to start off the pay-per-view. Clay Guida's is seriously the caveman Energizer Bunny. He's got one speed and it's full throttle for every minute he's in a fight; and although he's not typically able to finish fights, win or lose he'll be exciting. Nate Diaz is good. Plain and simple, the Ultimate Fighter season five winner oozes talent, and he continues to improve fight to fight. His ground game is far superior to that of Guida, but his stand up doesn't match up. I think Guida may be able to keep it standing for a round, and if he does he gives himself the best chance to win, but eventually it will hit the ground and then be Diaz's time.
My pick - Diaz via submission in round two.
Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim: Karo Parisyan needs a victory here against Dong Hyun Kim to get himself back on track and refocus after a serious back injury and some recent losses have set him back. Kim, on the other hand, will be out to perform better than his disputed split decision victory in his last fight against Matt Brown. This is a very intriguing match up pitting two high class judo practitioners against one another, and if Kim has learned from his mistakes in the Brown fight he can pull out the upset here. I'm very hesitant on how to predict Parisyan coming off of this injury. He's been defeated by only the best of the best in the welterweight division, but even at 27 the seriousness of that back injury could mean his best days are behind him. Then again, if he's at full strength then it's quite possible he's just a step above Kim in the MMA game. At the same time, rust could be a factor here as well with how long he's been out. Parisyan picking up a victory could be a safe bet, but I'm smelling the upset out of Kim with a better showing than in September.
My pick - Kim via tko in round three.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones: I'm extremely excited for this fight. That may not be the case for everyone, but this has all the makings of a great stand up MMA contest. Jon Jones is an energetic and exciting 21-year-old fighter who's taking on a big test in the returning Bonnar. After a layoff of over a year due to a knee injury, the big question surrounding Bonnar will be how well he's healed up coming into this fight. Jones will come out with a fast paced, youthful energy that could frustrate Bonnar early if the knee is hampering him in any way. If, however, he's had a good rehab on the knee and he's even 95% healthy on that leg he'll be a clear favorite in this fight and it will be his to win. He'll have a decided advantage in every area from striking to the ground game to experience, and it will be up to Jones to make a statement and shock the world by picking up the upset. I don't see that happening on Saturday night, though. Jones will survive past the first, in my estimation, but Bonnar will be too much for him through the second and third rounds. It should be mostly on the feet for the duration, however long that may be, but I'd expect Bonnar to out strike Jones; and if that doesn't work, Bonnar can afford to go to the ground against the junior college wrestling champion because his submission game is far more advanced than where Jones is at. Either way you look at it, it leans towards Bonnar with a late second to early third round stoppage.
My pick - Bonnar via submission late second round.
Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva: Thiago Silva's a beast. He's fast, he's strong, he's intimidating. He's also facing off against one of the most elusive fighers to step into the Octagon on Saturday night. Lyoto Machida isn't a flashy, highly exciting fighter, that's true, but all he does is win, and you can't argue the results. He's shown himself to be one of the smartest fighters in the game, able to pick his spots and score points while avoiding damage from his opponents. While this frustrates a lot of people, what he doesn't do is "run away." It's much more calculated than that. Silva, though, poses a threat that Machida hasn't really dealt with in his career: speed. Silva's speed is going to have to be off the charts early so that he can get in and connect in order to throw Machida off his gameplan and not allow Machida to get away from him. Whether he's successful in that venture remains to be seen, but if he isn't he's in a world of trouble. That same speed early on will come back to haunt him if he's not able to finish the fight, as Machida can take hold late in the fight with superior cardio; and if Machida withstands the early onslaught that's sure to come, he'll have a chance to finish this one. That's actually the way it should play out, with Silva getting in early and connecting but not being able to finish it, and then Machida will take it from there. I'm hoping for a stoppage, but those hopes aren't high given Machida's track record.
My pick - Machida via submission round three.
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn - UFC Welterweight Championship: And now for the cliched comments for the fight we've all been waiting for. It's epic, it's two of the best fighters in the world facing off for a title, it's the biggest rematch in UFC history, it's the equivalent of Lemmy vs. God (which wouldn't happen because as everyone knows Lemmy IS God), it's the five greatest things you can think of combined except twenty times better, it's...Ok, enough of the hyperbole; simply put, this fight will be everything that it can be and everything that it needs to be.
We've gotten a glimpse to the training camp's of both guys. We know each fighter very well by now, and it's a safe bet that this fight does not end early. Each fighter's got some points that they'll have an advantage in during this fight, with B.J. historically the better striker and Georges the better wrestler, but this fight will be different than their first encounter for multiple reasons. First off, GSP is miles ahead of where he was when the two first met. His cardio's better, his striking is better, his ground game is better; all around he's improved far beyond where they were in that first encounter. The first Matt Serra fight was an anomaly and should be disregarded when talking about GSP in 2009, as he's left that performance in the dust with three awesome victories in his wake.
B.J.'s a much improved fighter himself since they last met, though his best has been as a leaner fighter at 155. He wants this fight badly, and he wants to avenge that loss more than he wants the belt, and that's going to be hiw downfall in this fight. B.J.'s empassioned, he's an amazing fighter, but in his head he honestly believes he's better than Georges in every aspect of this game. I'm sorry, but he's not. He gets the nod in striking and in jiu-jitsu, as his skills in those areas very much world-class, but Georges has more size, more speed, better wrestling, and other intangibles that will make this his fight as it gets to the later rounds.
This is going to be a war through three rounds, with both men landing shots, Georges getting takedowns, B.J. working for a submission and it will be extremely close at the end of the third. Going into the fourth, Georges's going to have the edge in cardio, and while B.J. won't have gassed by then it's going to be St. Pierre taking control of the fight, getting it to the ground with a big shot and he's going to pound out a victory in the fourth round. This will be a fight to be remembered for a long time, but I think Georges is too good at this stage of his career, even for an amazing fighter like Penn in his prime.
My pick - GSP via tko in round four.
Final Thoughts: Even if the main event goes differently than what I think will happen, we're in for a special fight. This is a fight that will live up to the hype, I just don't see how it can't. No matter who loses on Saturday night, we as fans all win because these big fights only come around every so often, and no matter the outcome it will be incredible. Saturday night truly cannot come soon enough.
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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