...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!
By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
After three weeks without a major event, the UFC is back on Saturday night with UFC on FX 8 from Brazil, headlined by a middleweight bout between Vitor Belfort and final Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold. The fight was put together as just another matchup, but quickly became a heated and personal conflict with Rockhold attacking Belfort's TRT use, and that spilled over to the weigh-ins on Friday. That tops a four-fight main card on FX, so here are some quick thoughts on the night's matchups, along with some predictions:
Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold (Middleweight): There are a few things we know for certain into this matchup, and several others that are complete wild cards. On the known commodities front, Vitor Belfort remains one of the most vicious strikers in the sport. He hits very hard, he strikes in quick flurries, and he's capable of hurting absolutely anyone he's up against. Luke Rockhold is a fairly well-rounded fighter, but he's a better grappler than he is a striker. In other words, it's clear it would be unwise to engage Belfort in a blow for blow brawl.
Where we get to the unknowns is with everything that has surrounded this fight, along with the setting in which it's taking place. There was some legitimate heat at the weigh-in with Rockhold and Belfort, and the Brazilian was fueled further by his home country crowd. They've had a lot to say towards one another, with Rockhold doing most of the talking while remaining irked at Belfort's TRT use. This isn't one of those "fake trash talking" fights, at least that's how it seems coming in, and both are taking some extra emotion into the cage.
It's hard to say who that benefits, as well as whether or not the Brazilian crowd and a bigger stage will serve as intimidation to Rockhold or not. If he's able to avoid the nerves that this situation could easily breed, then it comes back to how prepared he is for Belfort's blitzkrieg come the first ten minutes of this fight.
Because much of Belfort's game consists of him trying to destroy his opponents as quickly as possible, he's gotten a (possibly unfounded) reputation for fading in fights; but since he hasn't really been dragged into deep waters by too many fighters, that's not necessarily a truth coming into this fight. That said, if Belfort is unable to hurt Rockhold early, his cardio will be tested through a five round fight, because the grappling game of the final Strikeforce Champion will be significantly draining.
Belfort's power means he's always in a fight, because he's ready, willing, and able to deliver brutal beatings on whomever's standing across from him. That said, Rockhold's an intelligent fighter with a good grappling game who isn't likely to play into that aspect of Belfort's attack. He's good at using his range and height, and he'll try to dictate the pace and location of the fight. If he can do that, I like him to win at least three of those five rounds, so I'm leaning towards Rockhold by decision.
Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Chris Camozzi (Middleweight): Camozzi's proven himself to be a good, if unspectacular, fighter, with solid striking and solid grappling allowing him to compete wherever his fights take him. He's shown a weakness with submission defense in the past, but it's something he's shown improvements with in the UFC.
He doesn't have great power in his strikes, but he's definitely serviceable, and he's able to dictate the pace in many of his fights as well. However, he's up against a different type of fighter entirely in Jacare here. Souza's striking is a little under-appreciated because of how good he is on the ground, but he's shown flashes of excellence on the feet as well.
Still, his ground game is lauded for a reason. 13 of his 17 career wins have come by submission, and he's capable of tearing through opponents when he's on his game. That said, we have seen him under perform in the past. In his two five-round fights with Tim Kennedy and Luke Rockhold, he allowed both opponents to control stretches of the fight, something we haven't really seen in his more dominant performances.
Camozzi's not an easy out in the UFC, and his four fight winning streak is a testament to that. Furthermore, he deserves all the credit in the world for stepping up to a fighter of Jacare's stature on such short notice. Still, if he's going to come close in this fight it may need Jacare to be off his game. If Souza is at his best, this is a fight he can win most of the time despite the considerable skill set of Camozzi. If he's off, it could be a grueling, grinding type of fight that would play into things Camozzi does well. After making such an impression against Ed Herman in January, though, I think that's where his mindset is, and I'll take Souza by submission in the second round.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham (Lightweight): Dos Anjos is a really good, well rounded lightweight, with considerable submission skills and proven striking power, making him a dangerous opponent for absolutely everyone at 155 lbs. He's further under the radar than a lot of his contemporaries, mainly because of some untimely losses and injury issues during his UFC tenure, but he just needs the right fight at the right time to break out to that next level.
Dunham's one of those fighters who has come close to his own breakout moment in the UFC as well, only to fall short at inopportune times, and he too has some skills with striking and grappling. That said, of the two, dos Anjos is the better, more proven striker, as well as the more proven grappler in his MMA career.
Dos Anjos holds a 7-4 mark in the UFC, and each of those four losses has its own story behind it. His debut against Jeremy Stephens showed off his impressive overall game, but then he fell victim to a hail mary uppercut in the third round from the UFC veteran. His loss to Tyson Griffin was a close, competitive fight that earned a "Fight of the Night" award, and his other decision loss was a split against Gleison Tibau, who is hard to look good against. Finally, his loss to Clay Guida by submission came after his jaw was broken, and Guida cranked his head and neck to put more pressure on it. That's the only standout loss of the three.
But in his seven wins, he's had a mixture of clear decision wins, entertaining submissions, and one vicious knockout.
Dunham's been in a lot of close fights, and he's had a couple of decisive wins of his own, despite a 3-1 stretch over his last four, he's coming in shy of dos Anjos as far as being a proven commodity is concerned. This should be a really entertaining fight, and should be very competitive, but I have to lean towards dos Anjos by decision.
Rafael Natal vs. Joao Zeferino (Middleweight): I'll admit I don't have much insight into Zeferino as a fighter. He's a submission specialist out of Brazil who has also served as the BJJ coach for Milwaukee's Roufusport camp, and he's been training top lightweight and now featherweight challenger Anthony Pettis in Brazil as of late. But as a fighter himself, he's spent his career fighting fellow Brazilians, which has represented a lower level of competition than whom Natal has competed against.
As a six-fight UFC veteran, Natal's been here before, and he was already preparing to be on this card, whereas Zeferino enters on short notice. The biggest edge in Natal's favor is the fact that he himself is a very good grappler and a BJJ black belt in his own right. So he's strong enough in Zeferino's wheelhouse to dictate where he wants the fight to take place, and I'd wager that his striking game is superior to what Zeferino will bring into the fight. Given their respective levels of competition, I've got Natal by decision.
=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====
-Nik Lentz over Hacran Dias by decision
-Francisco Trinaldo over Mike Rio by TKO RD 2
-Gleison Tibau over John Cholish by decision
-Paulo Thiago over Michael Prazeres by decision
-Yuri Alcantara over Iliarde Santos by TKO RD 1
-Fabio Maldonado over Roger Hollett by TKO RD 2
-John Lineker over Azamat Gashimov by TKO RD 1
-Chris Cariaso over Jussier Formiga by decision
-Lucas Martins over Jeremy Larsen by TKO RD 2
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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