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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
A drawn out lead up to a fight that probably should have never come together will come to an end in the cage on Saturday night, as Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen will fight at UFC 159 in New Jersey. The fight happens after a stint as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter, and will end what has been one of the least necessary "feuds" in recent memory. But that's not all Saturday has to offer, as the main pay-per-view card fairly strong despite the lack of a major co-main event, but even that fight features a bit more heat than it would have otherwise. Here's what I see coming on Saturday night.
Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen (Light Heavyweight Championship)
I don't think there's any way that Chael Sonnen wins this fight. Just to get that out of the way off the bat. He's got solid wrestling and ground and pound, and he's had a little bit of success in his striking game. However, that doesn't mean he's going to compete with Jon Jones in this fight.
Sonnen hasn't fought in the UFC's light heavyweight division since he made his debut in the organization in October of 2005, and he lost that fight to Renato "Babalu" Sobral. He has no business being in the cage with Jon Jones outside of the UFC believing he's going to draw eyeballs to the screen.
Everything he's capable of doing in the cage - takedowns, top control, striking, ground and pound, etc. - Jones simply does better. There's no spot in this fight in which Sonnen has an advantage, and there's no conceivable gameplan he can employ that will be successful through a five round fight.
Jones is the elite of the elite in this sport inside the cage. Regardless of what you think of him outside of it, what he does in the Octagon is undeniable. He's on a completely different plateau from a talent standpoint, and has his pick of how he wants to approach this fight. Use his reach and unique striking to beat Sonnen up on the feet? Take Sonnen down and beat him up on the ground? Bring the fight to the ground and forcing Sonnen to submit as he's done eight times in his career?
This fight just comes down to what Jon Jones wants to do and when. Despite some crazy betting lines that have had Jones as less than a prohibitive favorite, this fight's as close to a given as you can get in this sport. With that said, if Sonnen pulls off the upset the world will explode.
PREDICTION: Jones by submission in the second round
Michael Bisping vs. Alan Belcher (Middleweight)
Given their performances in their last respective fights, it'd be fair to say that both Michael Bisping and Alan Belcher have underperformed in their UFC careers. Whenever they've started to gain traction towards a run in the UFC's middleweight division, they've fallen short in disappointing fashion.
It's happened more often for Bisping, falling to Dan Henderson, then to Chael Sonnen, then to Vitor Belfort, while Belcher's first real breakout chance ended with a poor performance against Yushin Okami in December.
But both remain very talented fighters, they just haven't put everything together on a consistent basis. Bisping's boxing game is good, but he's left himself open in a couple of fights. He's got a good guard game, but he's been taken down by better wrestlers at times as well. Belcher's got some heavy hands and mostly good technique on the feet, but he too has been inconsistent there. His ground game is solid, if unspectacular, and it's another level in which he's failed to gain consistent traction.
I like the fight, I like the matchup, and I think it will be a competitive fight. But I think Bisping's big-fight experience plays a factor here as well, along with the bad blood that's nearly boiled over into the event. It won't be one-sided, but I think it's ultimately his to lose.
PREDICTION: Bisping by decision
Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo (Heavyweight)
Roy Nelson's transitioned from having his wrestling and jiu jitsu game at the forefront to being known for his knockout power instead. Though he's fallen to some top flight competitors in the UFC, he's destroyed most of the men he's faced.
Cheick Kongo's been a very solid fighter for his entire UFC run, competing against most in a mixture of exciting and boring fights. But while he's picked up some big and exciting wins, he's never gotten himself amongst the elite in the division.
Kongo's got a good mixture of skills, but he's likely to stand up with Nelson in this one. However, he's not on the level of the fighters who have defeated Nelson in the UFC. This feels similar to Kongo's fight with Mark Hunt in a way, and I think it ends the same way.
PREDICTION: Nelson by TKO in the first
Phil Davis vs. Vinny Magalhaes (Light Heavyweight)
Davis and Magalhaes are both highly talented grapplers, and unlike most fights between two highly talented grapplers, I doubt we're going to see this one devolve into a bad kickboxing match.
Both have something to prove here. They've completely disregarded the respective skills of one another, and believe themselves to be superior on the ground. Magalhaes is one of the more decorated jiu jitsu practitioners in the sport, and that has translated to a consistent string of submission wins in his MMA career. Davis has added submissions to his wrestling game, and remains a big threat there as well.
But this is about pride, this is about proving something, and one of them is going to leave disappointed. I'm very high on the submission game of Magalhaes, and even though Davis has fought and defeated some very good competition already in his career, I'm going to take the upset.
PREDICTION: Magalhaes by submission in the second round
Jim Miller vs. Pat Healy (Lightweight)
Pat Healy wants to prove himself among the elite in the lightweight division, and he's taken a very tough draw in Jim Miller to do so. He's got a very good grappling game with decent striking, and should be competitive in this fight.
However, Miller showed with his win over Joe Lauzon in December why he's still a force despite his losses to Nate Diaz and Ben Henderson in the division. He's got improved striking, a great wrestling game, good submission instincts, and overall I think he's the better fighter.
Miller's capable of dictating how this fight takes place, and though Healy should be able to stick with him for awhile, it's a chance for Miller to continue shooting back up the field at 155 lbs. I think he'll prove to be the better grappler, and catch Healy at some point in the fight.
PREDICTION: Miller by submission in the second round
=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====
-Rustam Khabilov over Yancy Medeiros by TKO in the second round
-Ovince St-Preux over Gian Villante by decision
-Sara McMann over Sheila Gaff by decision
-Bryan Caraway over Johnny Bedford by submission in the third
-Cody McKenzie over Leonard Garcia by submission in the first
-James Head over Nick Catone by decision
-Kurt Holobaugh over Steven Siler by submission in the second
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
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