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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
The UFC returns to network television on Saturday night with another exciting four-fight main card, as UFC on Fox 7 hits San Jose, Calif. UFC Lightweight Champ Ben Henderson defends his title on Fox for the second time, taking on Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Gilbert Melendez, and the rest of the main card features UFC vs. Strikeforce matchups as well. Here's what's on tap for the main card Saturday night:
Ben Henderson vs. Gilbert Melendez (UFC Lightweight Championship)
Both Henderson and Melendez are supremely talented lightweight fighters who have been under appreciated and underestimated often in their careers. It happened for Henderson while he was in the WEC, and it took him several wins in the UFC before he really opened the eyes of everyone to his status as the best in the world. Melendez has dealt with a similar issue being in Strikeforce, and he'll also have to prove himself inside the Octagon as well.
Melendez has a lot of weapons coming into this fight. He's got good wrestling, really heavy hands, and he's got great cardio as well. He's most dangerous when he's delivering ground and pound from the top, as he has a knack for delivering a lot of damage on the ground. However, he can work his clinch game effectively, and is a solid technical striker as well.
Henderson's similar in a lot of ways. He's got a good, technical striking game, though he lacks the same power that Melendez brings. But he's also a really good wrestler, and he's quite good with his submission and top game as well.
Really it's an intriguing matchup between a couple of fighters who have a lot of skills, and it really might come down to a couple of key factors: can Melendez connect on damaging strikes on the feet, and who will win the grappling battle? If Melendez can connect and do damage often enough, he can win some rounds and perhaps even find a way to stop the fight. If not, it will come down to whomever can implement their game in the grappling department.
I think the fact that Melendez has been out of action for nearly a year hurts him into this one. Ring rust is real, and even on his best day I'm not convinced that he defeats Henderson. I think he puts on a good fight, but I think he'll fall short against the current Champ.
PREDICTION: Henderson via decision
Frank Mir vs. Daniel Cormier (Heavyweight)
It's never easy to predict what you're going to get out of Frank Mir. The former UFC Heavyweight Champion has fluctuated between a perception of greatness and one of mediocrity in the cage, seeming as capable of destroying Cheick Kongo or breaking Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's arm as he is to get his face smashed in by Brock Lesnar or Shane Carwin, or look completely out of his element against Junior dos Santos.
Then you have Cormier, who has had fantastic performances against fighters like Josh Barnett and Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, but has had a bit of a tougher time than many felt he should have against guys like Jeff Monson and Dion Staring.
Cormier's an elite wrestler who has developed his striking game nicely, while Mir's an often underrated striker with an elite submission game. Additionally, Mir showed up to the weigh-ins on Friday in perhaps the best shape of his UFC career, and he's been training down in New Mexico with Greg Jackson's team into this fight, shaking things up from past fights.
Since the fight was originally planned for a Strikeforce card last year, I've felt that it was Cormier's opportunity to prove himself as an elite heavyweight. While that is still the case for him, the thinking on Mir has somewhat changed coming in, and I would no longer be surprised if Mir pulls this fight off. That said, I'm sticking with my initial thinking on the fight, and I think Cormier will make a successful UFC debut.
PREDICTION: Cormier via TKO in the second round
Nate Diaz vs. Josh Thomson (Lightweight)
Diaz fell short against Ben Henderson in December by getting outworked in every angle of the fight. He was out-struck and out-grappled, and he just wasn't able to mount the type of offense he had shown against Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone, and Takanori Gomi in his previous three lightweight bouts.
Josh Thomson is 3-3 over his last six, with two losses to Gilbert Melendez in that time. However, the most recent loss actually had him putting forth a very good effort, and he nearly snuck out of that fight with a win. He's another solid ground fighter with decent striking, but he's battled injuries over the last several years that have hampered him a bit.
Ultimately, Diaz is a more dynamic fighter with more weapons overall. He's the better striker, and Thomson's wrestling game isn't the type that will plant Diaz on his back early and often as happened against Henderson. I just think Diaz is the better fighter here, and he'll probably get back on track.
PREDICTION: Diaz by decision
Matt Brown vs. Jordan Mein (Welterweight)
Mein made a fantastic and impressive win in his UFC debut last month, becoming the first person ever to stop Dan Miller with strikes. Matt Brown has had a resurgent run in the last year, bouncing back from a 1-4 stretch to win four straight in 2012.
That stretch included three stoppage wins, and he certainly won't be afraid to fire strikes back against Mein. It's an interesting dynamic for the fight, because Brown's got a very good chin and isn't afraid of a firefight. Indeed, despite 11 career losses, Brown's never been felled by strikes.
It makes for an interesting dynamic for the fight, because Mein's got a lot of powerful, and is very good at doing a lot of damage in quick bursts, and it's probably going to be a fight contested mostly on the feet. I think Mein still has a slight edge there, but Brown's never been stopped from strikes before, and I don't know if Mein can manage that feat in two straight fights.
PREDICTION: Mein by decision
=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====
-Chad Mendes over Darren Elkins by TKO in the second round
-Lorenz Larkin over Francis Carmont by decision
-Myles Jury over Ramsey Nijem by decision
-Joseph Benavidez over Darren Uyenoyama by TKO in the first round
-Jorge Masvidal over Tim Means by decision
-T.J. Dillashaw over Hugo Viana by decision
-Roger Bowling over Anthony Njokuani by TKO in the second round
-Clifford Starkes over Yoel Romero by decision
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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