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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
The Ultimate Fighter Finale hits Las Vegas on Saturday night, bringing a close to an entertaining 17th season with the finals bout between the heavily hyped Uriah Hall and Kelvin Gastelum, who has a chance to become the youngest-ever winner of The Ultimate Fighter. Also of consequence on the main card, Urijah Faber and Scott Jorgensen square off in the main event, Miesha Tate and Cat Zingano fight in the second ever women's fight in the UFC, and heavyweights Travis Browne and Gabriel Gonzaga try to get themselves back into relevance in the top end of the heavyweight division. With that introduction out of the way, here's how I see Saturday's action playing out.
Urijah Faber vs. Scott Jorgensen (Bantamweight): This fight pits two friends against one another, a situation that doesn't often happen in the UFC. However, while Faber and Jorgensen have been training partners and friends in the past, it's not one of the partnerships that has ever ruled out the possibility of fighting.
Faber remains one of the best fighters in the world at bantamweight, despite his inability to win a title fight over the last several years. Yet, despite that lack of success with a belt on the line, Faber's been nothing less than spectacular in non-title competition. He's proven himself to be just under the level of the best of the best at 135, yet still well ahead of the rest of the field.
He showcased that again in his last fight, choking out Ivan Menjivar in a dominant fight, and he's stepped up on short notice for this fight, which just might put him back into a title bout yet again.
Jorgensen's a good fighter in his own right. He's a one-time title challenger in this division, falling to Dominick Cruz by decision himself back in 2009. He's had some ups and downs in the UFC since the WEC was brought over, but he's coming off a very nice win over John Albert with a literal last second submission in the first round in December.
However, the trouble Jorgensen will come into with this fight is the fact that everything he's good at, Faber is better. That's simply been proven in their performances. Jorgensen's edge may be power, as he's got some very heavy hands and has the striking finishes to prove it, but Faber's a better technical striker, and has proven to be a better grappler as well. That's what Jorgensen's good at mixing together, but Faber's more than likely going to be better in those areas. It should be quite a fight, but Jorgensen's just not on the level of the elite fighters who have out-classed Faber, and I can't see him pulling this one off. Faber by submission in the second round.
Uriah Hall vs. Kelvin Gastelum (TUF 17 Middleweight Finals):
Fans got a fairly good look at both Hall and Gastelum throughout the 12 episode season of The Ultimate Fighter on FX, with Hall wowing everyone - Dana White included - with a number of his performances throughout the show. But Gastelum deserves credit for not only pulling off the upsets he did to get to this finals bout, but improving from each fight and seemingly learning a ton during his time on the show.
Hall's obviously the better striker, that's not in doubt. He's a very good kickboxer who is capable of mixing things up. He's fairly comfortable on the ground, at least he was against Dylan Andrews, and he's dangerous from everywhere, as he showed in that fight. He can do damage from his back, he can hit severely brutal strikes on the feet, and he seems like he's capable of going far in his career.
Gastelum's out to stop that. He's got a very solid grappling game which served him well, and he added in some ground and pound to the mix which opened up some opportunities for him. But it's the fact that he took advantage of those openings which was the most impressive. When he had an opponent in jeopardy, he didn't let them go easily, and he pulled off some quick submissions and a really quick knockout during his time on the show as well.
It really is the "striker vs. grappler" type fight here, but I think in this case the hype train's been warranted for Hall. He's the best prospect to emerge from the show in a long while, and I don't think he'll slip up on Saturday night. Hall by TKO in the first round.
Miesha Tate vs. Cat Zingano (Women's Bantamweight):
The main issue coming into this fight for Cat Zingano is experience. She's 7-0 in her professional career, but she hasn't faced anywhere near the level of competition that Tate has competed against. Therefore, it's difficult to judge how her skills will translate on this stage against a higher-ranked opponent.
She seems to have a well rounded game, with some grappling and striking skills to speak of, but once again, the level of competition she's faced makes it very hard to tell how much to read into those wins and the way in which she won.
In the other corner is Tate, who is pretty much a known commodity to fans from her time in Strikeforce. She's a very good wrestler, and she's got some good submission skills to go along with that. Case in point, her surprising submission win over Marloes Coenen to capture the Strikeforce Women's Bantamweight Title. She's also got some ok striking, though it's definitely not her strong suit.
Ultimately, Zingano hasn't proven anything yet. Tate has. Could this be the breakout fight for Zingano, the one in which she makes her name? Absolutely. But I think it's more realistic to think Tate's experience edge is significant, and I'd give her the nod in this one. Tate by decision.
Travis Browne vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (Heavyweight):
This is a really interesting fight in the heavyweight division. Gonzaga's looked good in two fights since returning from the UFC, but whether that's a resurgence or a result of the fighters he's faced is debatable. He's fought some very good fighters, he's competed for a title, but outside of his shocking head kick win over Mirko Cro Cop in 2007, he doesn't have a major name in the win column.
Browne's looked great in some fights, average in others, and he's coming into this event of the first loss of his career. That came in a brutal TKO from Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, but it also came after he tore his hamstring minutes into their fight in October.
At 6'5", he's a very tall fighter in the heavyweight division, and he's got a nice mix of striking prowess and a ground game. But his ground game isn't on Gonzaga's level, and he'd be best served trying to turn this fight into a slug fest.
Gonzaga's got to get Browne to his back. He's got a weight and skill advantage that could allow him to work effectively from the top, and he's got some long limbs of Browne's to try to latch onto during the fight. In the case Browne manages to keep things standing, Gonzaga's got power to fire back, but he also doesn't have the greatest chin himself.
I think it comes down to what happens in a slug fest, because I think Browne might be able to keep himself standing in this fight. Browne did just get knocked out, but the injury really did affect him visibly during that fight, and left him open to the finishing exchange. If he avoids a similar fate, I think his striking game takes over in this one. Browne via TKO in the first round
=====Undercard Quick Picks=====
--Bubba McDaniel over Gilbert Smith by TKO, RD 2
--Josh Samman over Kevin Casey by TKO, RD 1
--Luke Barnatt over Collin Hart by TKO, RD 2
--Dylan Andrews over Jimmy Quinlan by TKO, RD 2
--Bristol Marunde over Clint Hester by decision
--Bart Palaszewski over Cole Miller by TKO, RD 1
--Maximo Blanco over Sam Sicilia by TKO, RD 1
--Justin Lawrence over Daniel Pineda by TKO, RD 2
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
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