Penick's Take
UFC 158 "GSP VS. DIAZ" PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for Montreal event
Mar 16, 2013 - 3:30:34 PM UFC 158 "GSP VS. DIAZ" PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for Montreal event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

After spending 19 months out of action due to a series of knee injuries, Georges St-Pierre wasted no time between fights after defeating Carlos Condit last November. On Saturday night in Montreal, the long-reigning UFC Welterweight Champion will take on his latest challenge in the outspoken and oft misunderstood Nick Diaz. The UFC 158 event will also feature two more big fights in the welterweight division, as Carlos Condit and Johny Hendricks square off in a de facto No. 1 Contender fight, while Nate Marquardt returns to the UFC against Jake Ellenberger. Here's how I see Saturday's card playing out:

Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz (Welterweight Championship)

The strengths for each fighter are readily apparent into this bout. Diaz's overwhelming striking can be the bane of any fighter's existence, but St-Pierre is one of the most intelligent game-planners in the sport, and it's not likely he'll opt to stand and trade with Diaz. GSP's takedowns and top control are what wins him this fight, and it's likely going to be the determining factor in the 25-minute fight.

Diaz is very sneaky from his back, which makes the ground game a more dangerous proposition for St-Pierre in this fight than any of his others, but he's very strong, and his ground and pound can be brutal and damaging.

We haven't seen Diaz thoroughly dominated in a fight, as even his losses feature him being competitive. And outside of getting clipped by Matt Serra and taking a head kick from Carlos Condit, we haven't seen St-Pierre in trouble in a long time. That said, Diaz is certainly capable of hurting him and finishing the fight if he is given the opening. But this just isn't likely to be what happens Saturday night. Diaz is a very good fighter, but St-Pierre's just got the type of game that can shut him down and render his game ineffective.

PREDICTION: St-Pierre via decision

Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks (Welterweight)

Hendricks has a superior wrestling game to that of Condit, and if he chose to he could probably control a couple rounds from top position. But that's not the game he tries to employ in his fights. He's improved as a striker, and loves to deliver the knockout strike, something he's done with frequency and in impressive fashion.

That's a recipe for a loss against Condit, who is a very intelligent fighter with a well rounded skillset. He can be taken down, and though he's dangerous off his back it's not his best attribute. But he does have a very good striking game, very good footwork, and he can avoid damage if he's playing things smart.

Because I expect Hendricks to be looking for that knockout blow, I do believe Condit can win two out of three rounds while avoiding the finish. It's not going to be an easy fight, but I think Condit edges Hendricks and halts his title aspirations.

PREDICTION: Condit via decision

Nate Marquardt vs. Jake Ellenberger (Welterweight)

Will we see Nate Marquardt come out with the type of offense that decimated Tyron Woodley, or will we see him fail to show up in the cage? That's the question coming into this fight.

Jake Ellenberger's a talented, high level welterweight. He's got a good grappling game, he's got heavy hands, and he's a challenge for anyone in the weight class. But is he better than the best version of Marquardt? I'm not so sure on that front.

Marquardt, when he is at his best, is very creative in his striking game, and he has finishing power and good instincts when he's got an opponent hurt. But he also has a tendency to disappear in certain fights, and if that happens here he's going to lose in his UFC return.

However, this is a chance for him to get himself back on track and start anew in the UFC. I think the significance of the opportunity and the fact that he did just lose will have him out to make a statement. I think we might just see that happen at the expense of Ellenberger in Montreal.

PREDICTION: Marquardt via TKO in the second round

Chris Camozzi vs. Nick Ring (Middleweight)

Camozzi's been out-grappled in the past, and Ring's got a solid grappling game. I believe Camozzi's the better fighter of the two, but Ring has managed to win fights he shouldn't have in the UFC already, getting a couple of gift decisions in his home country over Riki Fukuda and Court McGee.

Camozzi's going to have to make things clear through the course of the fight, or pick up a stoppage win, and that's going to be hard to do against Ring. Though he's not spectacular at any one thing, Ring is capable enough as a grappler and striker to make other fighters look bad. If he can do that against Camozzi, even if it's close, he'll probably take the decision.

Again, I believe Camozzi is the better fighter of the two, but I also think he'll have to stop Ring in order to take this one, and I just don't think that happens.

PREDICTION: Ring via decision

Mike Ricci vs. Colin Fletcher (Lightweight)

Two runners-up from different versions of The Ultimate Fighter square off here. Ricci got out-wrestled by Colton Smith in the welterweight finals of TUF 16, making the drop down to lightweight for this fight.

Fletcher's tall, and has a solid ground game, but he'll be at a disadvantage on the feet against the hard-hitting Ricci. I think Ricci being in Montreal and in his more comfortable weight class works in his favor, so I think we see him kick off the pay-per-view card with a quick win.

PREDICTION: Ricci via TKO in the first round

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks======

-Patrick Cote over Bobby Voelker via TKO in the second round
-Darren Elkins over Antonio Carvalho via decision
-Dan Miller over Jordan Mein via decision
-John Makdessi over Daron Cruickshank via decision
-Rick Story over Quinn Mulhern via decision
-T.J. Dillashaw over Issei Tamura via submission in the first round
-George Roop over Reuben Duran via decision