Penick's Take
UFC 157 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Rousey vs. Carmouche" event in Anaheim
Feb 22, 2013 - 11:05:53 PM UFC 157 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "Rousey vs. Carmouche" event in Anaheim

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC will bring their historic first women's bout to pay-per-view on Saturday night, as Ronda Rousey makes her heavily anticipated UFC debut against Liz Carmouche in the UFC 157 main event. In addition to that first-ever Women's Bantamweight Championship fight, Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida will attempt to secure a shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship in their co-main event. Here's how I see Saturday's event playing out:

Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche (Women's Bantamweight Championship)

Everyone knows what Ronda Rousey's best path to victory is in this fight. She's an incredible grappler, and her Judo game is such an asset that she can catch people off guard even as they're expecting every move she makes.

Carmouche brings a fairly well rounded game with some good ground and pound, solid submission skills, and a decent stand up game. However, she's not faced off against a ton of top flight competition, and when she has, that's when she's suffered her losses.

Rousey's in-cage experience is limited only because she's made such quick work of her opponents. However, while her striking has left a lot to be desired in past fights, there's every reason to believe it's something she's continuing to improve upon. Carmouche, while serviceable in a number of areas in the game, hasn't beaten any top flight competition in women's MMA to date.

Rousey's the favorite for a reason. She's got one massive skill that's far and away above what her opponents bring, and even if you know it's coming, stopping it is a different story entirely. I'd be very surprised if the fight leaves the first round.

PREDICTION: Rousey via submission in the first round

Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida (Light Heavyweight)

Despite his knockout loss to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and his submission loss to Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida remains a highly effective striker and a very elusive opponent. His striking defense is still mostly excellent, and he's capable of counter-striking in vicious fashion.

That seems to work against Henderson's biggest strength, which is the highly effective and powerful overhand right. But he's capable of scoring with his strikes outside of that as well, and in a fight that should mostly take place on the feet, he'll have ample opportunity to score with his strikes.

If Henderson can't connect on Machida, he's going to have a long night and will more than likely drop a decision. But if he can get through with the types of strikes he hit Shogun, Fedor, Feijao, Babalu, and Bisping with, he can repeat the results he found in a lot of those fights.

Machida's a fantastic fighter, but he's susceptible to being rocked by strikes, even more now than before his losses to Shogun and Jones. Because of that, the feeling pick I'll take here is that Henderson will get through, and Machida won't be able to recover at the level Shogun did in November of 2011.

PREDICTION: Henderson via KO in the second round

Urijah Faber vs. Ivan Menjivar (Bantamweight)

Alright, so Faber's failed to win in his last five title fights. He's also not lost in any non-title fight since a decision against lightweight Tyson Griffin in 2005. There's a reason he keeps getting title shots, and it's because he's still better than 90% of the fighters in the divisions he's been competing in.

Menjivar has had a successful run in the UFC, winning four of his five fights inside the Octagon, but this is the first fight he's had against one of the top fighters in the bantamweight division. He's a highly experienced veteran, he's got a really well rounded game, but he's just fallen short against competition that's been better than him.

I believe whole heartedly that Faber's in that camp. He's fallen short against the likes of Jose Aldo, Dominick Cruz, and Renan Barao, but he remains one of the top talents below 145 lbs. I think he should dominate much of this fight, and though it might be tough to finish a fighter like Menjivar, this should be Faber's to lose.

PREDICTION: Faber via decision

Court McGee vs. Josh Neer (Welterweight)

McGee drops to the welterweight division for the first time after consecutive losses at middleweight, though his last loss was a robbery and the one before that was to highly ranked Costa Philippou.

Neer began his comeback with the UFC on a high note with two straight wins, but he's since been stopped in consecutive fights.

McGee's a better overall fighter who will bring a size advantage into this one as well. McGee's capable of out-striking Neer, and with what should be a cardio advantage as well, this should be a successful welterweight debut for McGee.

PREDICTION: McGee via submission in the second round

Josh Koscheck vs. Robbie Lawler (Welterweight)

Lawler's one of the most enigmatic fighters competing in the sport of MMA. He's got an immensely talented game, capable of delivering highlight reel finishes at any given time. He's also got a propensity to not show up mentally come fight time, leading to a number of poor performances sprinkled in as well.

Koscheck hasn't had a really good/entertaining fight in a really long time. Outside of his knockout over Matt Hughes, Koscheck's string of fights between a decision over Paul Daley and his most recent split decision loss to Johny Hendricks.

Honestly, who knows what's going to happen here? Lawler might come in an destroy Koscheck. He might also fail to show up at all and lose a lackluster decision, or worse, get finished. I really have zero faith in any given outcome, so my pick is what I'm pulling for.

PREDICTION: Lawler via TKO in the first round

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

-Brendan Schaub over Lavar Johnson via submission in the first round
-Michael Chiesa over Anton Kuivanen via decision
-Dennis Bermudez over Matt Grice via decision
-Caros Fodor over Sam Stout via decision
-Brock Jardine over Kenny Robertson via decision
-Neil Magny over Jon Manley via TKO in the second round
-Yuri Villefort over Nah-Shon Burrell via TKO in the second round