Penick's Take
BELLATOR 85 PREVIEW: Penick's thoughts and fight picks for Spike TV debut
Jan 16, 2013 - 9:45:56 PM BELLATOR 85 PREVIEW: Penick's thoughts and fight picks for Spike TV debut

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Bellator makes their long-anticipated debut on Spike TV on Thursday night, bringing two of the top Championship fights they've got set for season eight to one fight card. Additionally, the Spike TV broadcast will feature the Bellator debut of UFC veteran and former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Renato "Babalu" Sobral, who faces M-1 Global vet Mikhail Zayats in the opening round of the season eight 205 lb. tournament. Here's what's coming tomorrow night:

Michael Chandler vs. Rick Hawn (Lightweight Championship) Chandler makes his first title defense 14 months after capturing the belt from Eddie Alvarez in one of the best fights of 2011, and it's just his second fight since that incredible win. The undefeated 26-year-old is as talented and dangerous with his striking as he is with his submission game. He's often used both to pick up his wins, as was ultimately the case against Alvarez when he hurt him standing, and finished him with a rear naked choke.

Hawn gets his first shot at Bellator gold after a split decision loss to Jay Hieron kept him from winning a tournament in the welterweight division. The 36-year-old judo black belt is a fantastic grappler who is capable of some flashy in-cage moments, but he's no one-trick pony. Indeed, he prefers to strike with his opponents, and has won nine fights by (T)KO in his 15-fight career.

With five rounds to work with, this fight could be a showcase in all aspects of MMA. Both fighters are capable of surviving adversity, and they're each comfortable trying to contest the fight on the ground or on the feet. It's a tough fight to judge. Hawn's capable of keeping pace with Chandler, but he hasn't yet been in a fight with more than three rounds in his career.

I think that might play in Chandler's favor, and after a tough and competitive fight I think Chandler ultimate wins by decision.


Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Mikhail Zayats (Light Heavyweight Quarterfinal)

Babalu spent 18 months out of action after a knockout loss to Dan Henderson in Strikeforce, then returned last June with a win over Tatsuya Mizuno in ONE FC. Zayats has won nine of his last ten fights, the sole loss in that stretch coming against current UFC light heavyweight Vinny Magalhaes in M-1.

There's two ways for this fight to go, and it really depends on how Babalu's chin holds up when he gets hit. Zayats is capable of knocking him out in this fight, but if Babalu takes his hits and keeps his wits about him, he's got the better submission game and can stop Zayats. It's a competitive opening round fight, and I'm leaning Babalu by submission.


Pat Curran vs. Patricio "Pitbull" Freire (Featherweight Championship)

Injury delays kept this fight from happening last year, but it will kick off Bellator's run on Spike TV, and might just be the best Title fight they'll put on all year. It's simply a fantastic fight in the featherweight division, with Curran's 7-1 mark in Bellator up against Freire's 5-1 mark in the organization.

Freire's sole career loss was certainly controversial, as he had what should have been a 10-8 round against Joe Warren where the fight could have been stopped, but it didn't and he lost a split decision that should have been a draw at worst. He's got fast hands, great aggression and is capable of pressing a fight early and often.

However, he's running up against perhaps the best striker in Bellator's 145 lb. field. Curran's brutal destruction of Warren was the culmination of his great decision to drop to the featherweight division, and considering his sole loss in Bellator came at lightweight to Eddie Alvarez in a five round decision, he should have an advantage over Freire here.

That major advantage is the ability to go strong through five rounds, and if this fight doesn't end early things will continue to be in Curran's favor as the fight continues. I think he wears "Pitbull" down through three exciting rounds before finishing things in the Championship rounds. I'll take Curran to retain by TKO in the fourth round.