Penick's Take
UFC 155 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Dos Santos vs. Velasquez II" event
Dec 29, 2012 - 3:30:29 PM UFC 155 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight predictions for "Dos Santos vs. Velasquez II" event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

The UFC's tumultuous 2012 comes to a close on Saturday night in Las Vegas, and though the UFC 155 card has not been immune to injuries itself, it remains a strong card from top to bottom. The night should provide plenty of action for fight fans, capped off by a rematch between Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. We've got lots to go over with this card, but it's with that bout that we'll begin!

Junior dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez (Heavyweight Championship)

You can take a lot of the thoughts and predictions from last year's JDS-Cain bout right into this one, because the same things are in play. Dos Santos remains the best boxer in the heavyweight division, and he's got a great ability to avoid damage while inflicting maximum punishment. He's continued getting better in that aspect, and he'll be the better striker into Saturday's rematch.

This fight comes down to whether or not Velasquez can do anything differently than the quick first fight. He's got to find a way to get dos Santos to the ground, because he's not going to out-strike him. We've seen how that works out when he attempted to do that. He absolutely has to take dos Santos down, and he probably needs to drag the fight into late rounds as well.

Velasquez's card may hold up well against dos Santos, but we've seen him slow down in fights at times as well. Given the injury-free camps the two have had, neither will likely have too much of an issue going long, but I think Velasquez may hold up a bit better if it hits the fourth or fifth rounds.

He's simply not going to stop JDS standing. That's the one outcome that seems most unlikely in this fight; but that doesn't mean he can't do it if he gets the fight to the ground. Velasquez has great instincts with his ground and pound, and if he can put the Champion on his back, he's got the power from top position to do real damage, and to earn a stoppage in the fight. It's getting dos Santos to the ground that's the key.

That's not going to be an easy task. Dos Santos shrugged off Velasquez's takedown attempts in that first fight, and though it can be explained away by the knee injury Velasquez was battling into that fight, it's never been easy for opponents to take dos Santos down. Dos Santos has shown very good take down defense, and even if it goes to the ground he's said time and again he's got the ground skills to hang there as well.

Ultimately, this is a hard fight to predict. Velasquez is capable of dragging dos Santos into waters he hasn't faced, and if he avoids the knockout blow he might be able to control things throughout the fight. However, if dos Santos can hold off his takedowns and can make this a striking battle again, he has to be the favorite. It's going to be a more competitive fight than the first matchup, I think, but I like dos Santos to keep himself undefeated in the UFC.

PREDICTION: Dos Santos via TKO in the second round

Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller (Lightweight)

Two of the lightweight division's premier grapplers get a boost in profile on this card after the loss of the Forrest Griffin-Phil Davis bout. Lauzon's coming off an incredibly exciting third round submission win over Jamie Varner in one of the year's best fights in August, and he'll take on the returning Miller, who fights for the first time since a loss to Nate Diaz in May.

Miller's losses to Ben Henderson and Diaz in a three-fight stretch is the first time he's had losses come that close to one another. And the most surprising thing about the Diaz fight was that he managed to pull off a submission against a man who had never been stopped before.

But despite losses to two elite fighters in the division, Miller remains one of the most talented fighters in the lightweight division. He's got underrated striking, but his own wrestling and submission games are fantastic as well.

For Lauzon, this could be the biggest win in his career. Miller's one of the best fighters he's faced in his career, and if he defeats him, it will be the best fighter he's beaten in the Octagon. Unfortunately for him, this is a fight against the level of fighter he's lost to quite often in his career.

I just think Miller is the better fighter, even coming off the loss to Diaz, and though Lauzon is always exciting to watch, and certainly could pull something off in this one, this is exactly the type of fighter he's had difficulties against in the past. I like Miller a lot in this one, though it should be a fantastic fight.

PREDICTION: Miller via submission in the second round

Tim Boetsch vs. Costa Philippou (Middleweight)

Philippou steps into this fight on short notice after the injury to his teammate Chris Weidman. Both fighters have had similar runs recently, with both winning four straight fights into this event. However, it's Boetsch who has defeated the bigger named opponents in Yushin Okami and Hector Lombard in his last two.

Philippou is a very aggressive striker, and he'll want to keep pressure on Boetsch in this one, but that's a tough proposition against someone with the power that Boetsch brings in the middleweight division. He's got a solid clinch game, good killer instinct once he's got an opponent hurt, and he's been in the cage against much tougher opposition.

That's not to say Philippou can't or won't be competitive, but his level of competition isn't anywhere near comparable to that of Boetsch, which makes this a tough fight to break down. Could Philippou perform against a better opponent as well as he has against the rung below? Of course, but it's hard to know just what he can do against a fighter like Boetsch until we see it. Until then, I like Boetsch's striking game to offset Philippou's, and I think he'll edge this one on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Boetsch via decision

Alan Belcher vs. Yushin Okami (Middleweight)

These two fought once before, but that fight came over six years ago and has no bearing on where the two of them are heading into 2013. Belcher's continued getting better throughout his career, but long battles with injury have set him back time and again.

Meanwhile, Okami worked his way to a title fight in the UFC's middleweight division, but lost decisively in a rematch with Anderson Silva before a shocking follow-up loss to Tim Boetsch in February. He returned to the win column in August, but had a mostly tepid performance before his superior grappling overwhelmed Buddy Roberts.

Belcher, on the other hand, took Rousimar Palhares' game right to him, and knocked him out with a great display of ground and pound. Belcher's sole loss in the last four years came by split decision in a fight many think he should have won, and he's finished five of his other six opponents in that time span.

The 28-year-old has improved his grappling game, and his striking game is much better than it was the first time he fought Okami as well. This is a matchup of momentum here, and though Belcher was set back by another injury this fall, I think he's still coming into this fight in a better spot. Okami's a slight favorite, but I like Belcher to have a signature performance to get himself into the title conversation in 2013.

PREDICTION: Belcher via TKO in the second round

Chris Leben vs. Derek Brunson (Middleweight)

Leben returns after 14 months out of the cage due to suspension, and he'll welcome a Strikeforce vet in desperate need of a win after two straight losses. This fight was initially going to set Leben up against Karlos Vemola, which would have likely been a more violent opponent for Leben.

As it stands, though, Brunson is an aggressive fighter with some decent striking skills who will try to do to Leben what Brian Stann did last in January of 2011. However, that plays right into Leben's game, and in a firefight he's the more likely fighter to wind up victorious. Expect a sloppy, fast fight in this one, with Leben making a solid return to the win column.

PREDICTION: Leben via KO in the first round

=====FX Preliminary Card Quick Thoughts=====

Brad Pickett vs. Eddie Wineland (Bantamweight)

This is a fantastic bantamweight matchup between one of the more exciting fighters in the division in Pickett, and an always competitive opponent in Wineland. Both are coming off of knockout wins in their last fights, and Wineland's two most recent losses came at the hands of Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez. I think Pickett may just be at the same level as those two, though, and I think we're in for an exciting matchup at 135 lbs. Pickett via submission in the second round


Erik Perez vs. Byron Bloodworth (Bantamweight)

Perez is a heavy favorite for a reason. He's been very exciting in two fights in the UFC thus far, and he's riding a seven fight win streak into this event. Bloodworth hasn't fought since a loss in his UFC debut, which came by TKO against Mike Easton. The 23-year-old Perez is the brighter prospect, and he should roll here. Perez via submission in the second round


Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner (Lightweight)

This fight has been turned into a grudge match for Guillard after the last minute removal from The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale's FX main card two weeks ago. Guillard's brought emotion into it, and he's vowed to essentially destroy Varner in this fight. That sounds like a recipe for disaster for Guillard, who is prone to mistakes that wind up costing him fights. I have a feeling it happens again against an opportunistic Varner. Varner via submission in the first round


Michael Johnson vs. Myles Jury (Lightweight)

I'm not sure why this fight was booked in the first place. Jury's stopped ten fights, and all in the first round, but Johnson has faced much tougher opposition thus far in his career, and he's coming off a fantastic comeback against Danny Castillo in October. Jury's going to have an issue if he can't finish right away, and Johnson's proven himself to be a very solid competitor thus far in his UFC run. Johnson via decision

=====Facebook Preliminary Card Quick Pics=====

--Todd Duffee over Phil De Fries via KO in the first round
--Max Holloway over Leonard Garcia via TKO in the second round
--John Moraga over Chris Cariaso via submission in the third round