Penick's Take
UFC 154 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "St-Pierre vs. Condit" event in Montreal
Nov 17, 2012 - 3:05:43 PM UFC 154 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for "St-Pierre vs. Condit" event in Montreal

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

After 19 months out of action, one of the UFC's top pay-per-view draws finally returns to the Octagon on Saturday night at UFC 154 in Montreal. Facing off against one of the most dangerous fighters to grace the welterweight division in Carlos Condit, Georges St-Pierre will attempt to make a successful return from knee surgery in the night's main event. Here's what's coming up tomorrow.

Georges St-Pierre vs. Carlos Condit (UFC Welterweight Championship)

There are so many variables to this Championship fight that it's near impossible to be confident in any one way it could end. St-Pierre, at his best, could work his jab and underrated striking in perfect tandem with his grappling game, stifling anything Condit wants to do for five straight rounds. Condit could utilize his height advantage and dynamic striking game to land a blow St-Pierre never sees coming.

In another scenario, Condit could get planted on his back, but pull off a submission from the bottom. Or maybe we see St-Pierre capitalize where others haven't, scoring a knockdown and then finishing Condit off on the ground.

Anything and everything is in play in this fight, because we're seeing the two best and most well-rounded 170 lb. fighters square off. Condit is wholly capable of holding his own with St-Pierre on the feet and on the ground, but he's not content with just being in the fight. He honestly believes he's the best welterweight in the world, and knows he has to take out St-Pierre to prove it.

He's not afraid to press the action against the Champ, force him to get off rhythm or take risks. He'll want to push the pace early, and he'll want to establish his striking game. St-Pierre's no slouch on the feet, though. He's got an excellent jab, and he's sneaky good at getting in with power strikes in unexpected ways.

This could be a brawl, it could be a technical dissection of one another, we could get some stifled spots, we might see some fantastic grappling exchanges. I can't honestly say I know how this fight is going to go, because while I expect to see the return of the best GSP we've seen, I don't know that the best Carlos Condit is truly that far behind. Both fighters have a myriad of ways to win this one, both fighters are wholly capable of getting their hand raised. Ultimately, I believe we'll see a return to form from St-Pierre, and I think Condit's style will force the best out of him.

If he doesn't respond well to that, we'll have a new Champion. If he does, and I think he might, we'll have another big win from the long-reigning 170 lb. king.

PREDICTION: Georges St-Pierre via decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks (Welterweight)

This is another really hard fight to pick. Both Kampmann and Hendricks are extremely talented fighters, and both are entering off of impressive runs in the division, but as for how the fight itself breaks down, there's once again a lot that could go into it.

Kampmann has lost three times in the welterweight division, one of which was a robbery of a decision, another which was a very close and debatable decision, and a TKO loss in which he was still standing when the fight was stopped.

Hendricks, meanwhile, has only lost one fight, and it was a closely contested decision against Rick Story. Since that fight, he's railed off four straight wins, including a 12 second knockout over perennial contender Jon Fitch. Now, the quickness of that stoppage doesn't tell us a lot outside of the fact that he's got power, but it is a significant piece of information into this fight.

Kampmann's main problem has been starting slow. He allows himself to get hit, and it happens a lot more often than he'd like it to. That could be dangerous for him against someone who has the power to do damage enough to stop a fight. At the same time, he's got an uncanny ability to come back from the brink, and he's done it on a few occasions, including his last two fights. Still, it's Hendricks who has been more consistent. Even if it's ugly, I think he might be able to do enough early, then avoid the late comeback in this one.

PREDICTION: Hendricks via decision

Francis Carmont vs. Tom Lawlor (Middleweight)

Georges St-Pierre's Tri-Star teammate Francis Carmont looks to win his fourth straight in the UFC against one of the most charismatic fighters on the UFC's roster outside of the cage.

Lawlor again brought the funny at the weigh-ins, making a pitch perfect appearance as The Shockmaster (click here), but it's going to take a lot more than funny to get past Carmont. Lawlor's got some power in his hands, and he's got some solid grappling, but Carmont hasn't lost in eight straight fights, and he's looked very solid through his first three in the UFC.

It's likely to be a close fight. Lawlor's fully capable of holding his own, and Carmont's been solid, but not spectacular. It's another close, "either-fighter-is-capable-of-winning" type fight on this card. I think we'll probably see Carmont continue his streak, but Lawlor will make him work for it.

PREDICTION: Carmont via decision

Nick Ring vs. Costa Philippou (Middleweight)

Ring took a gift decision over Court McGee in July to avoid a two-fight losing streak, and Philippou enters this event off of four straight wins.

Philippou is the harder striker, and if he can keep himself standing this fight should be his fairly easily. Ring can take him down, try to make this into a drag out grappling affair, but each round starts on the feet, and he's going to get hit. Hard and often.

It's a winnable fight for both, but Phillipou's striking is the true edge in this one, and I think he wears Ring down before finishing him late.

PREDICTION: Philippou via TKO in the third round

Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza (Welterweight)

This is a must win fight between two very talented and likable featherweights. They've each fallen on some hard times, with Garza dropping two straight after some very exciting wins, and Hominick dropping three straight, beginning with a loss in a title fight.

Hominick's a threat everywhere, and has almost as many submission wins as those by way of strikes, but Garza can threaten both on the feet and from his back as well. Hominick's key will be to put Garza on his back and avoid his attacks from the bottom, and if he can do that he can bounce back.

Garza has to find a way to finish. He's got a significant height and reach advantage, and can do damage on the feet if the fight stays standing. If it's on the ground, he can't let himself be held there, as happened against Dennis Bermudez, and he can't let himself be out-grappled, as happened against Dustin Poirier.

Both have a lot of ways to win, and even though Hominick is back in Canada and really has his back against the wall, I think this is the exact type of fight that Garza can surprise people in.

PREDICTION: Garza via submission in the second round


=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

--Patrick Cote over Alessio Sakara via KO in the first round
--Cyrille Diabate over Chad Griggs via TKO in the second round
--Mark Bocek over Rafael dos Anjos via decision
--Sam Stout over John Makdessi via decision
--Antonio Carvalho over Rodrigo Damm via decision
--Ivan Menjivar over Azamat Gashimov via TKO in round 2
--Matt Riddle over John Maguire via decision
--Darren Elkins over Steven Siler via decision