Penick's Take
UFC 143 "DIAZ VS. CONDIT" PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for Super Bowl weekend event
Feb 4, 2012 - 4:35:15 PM UFC 143 "DIAZ VS. CONDIT" PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and fight picks for Super Bowl weekend event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Saturday's UFC 143 event was supposed to feature the showdown between Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz. Instead, St-Pierre suffered an injury that took him out of action, so Diaz will take on Carlos Condit for the Interim Welterweight Championship. The main card also features a number of intriguing fights that have been a bit under the radar, so let's take a look at what we've got coming up on Saturday night:

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit (Interim Welterweight Championship)

Outside of Georges St-Pierre, these two just may be the best welterweights in the world. Diaz's stock has risen significantly after his one-sided beating of B.J. Penn, and the strides he had made as a striker over the last several years were really on display at the highest level he's faced in that time.

Carlos Condit made a name for himself with plenty of highlights in the WEC, and has finally begun getting the recognition he deserves as one of the best in the world with his recent string of knockout wins inside the Octagon.

The careers of both fighters are remarkably similar, as is their respective skill sets. Both fighters are extremely talented on the ground, but they enjoy the success they find with their striking games more often than not.

Diaz is all about accumulation of strikes and overwhelming his opponents with pressure. He's got a gas tank that will not fail him, and he'll continue throwing strike after strike after strike until his opponent breaks.

Condit will come forward with crisp technique and power, but he'll throw in a very good arsenal of kicks, knees, elbows, and more. Of the two, Condit absolutely brings more stopping power, with the ability to drop his opponents at any moment and finish them off. Diaz can stop just about anyone himself, but it's not often with one punch. Diaz's finishes come after he's worn his opponents out, and he's not afraid to fight through damaging offense from those opponents in order to do so.

The fearless attitude both fighters bring into the cage makes this one of the greatest stylistic matchups the UFC has put together in a long time, and comes as close to guaranteeing fireworks as a fight can do on paper.

Diaz being considered as big a favorite as he is doesn't seem quite right to me, and I think Condit's being undervalued coming in. Diaz is fantastic, and if the fight goes deep the advantage really does shift to him. However, Condit is capable of stopping this fight at any point in its duration, and I'm leaning towards Condit pulling off the upset and taking the GSP showdown away from Diaz.

PREDICTION: Condit via TKO in the second round

Fabricio Werdum vs. Roy Nelson (Heavyweight)

Werdum is reentering the UFC for the first time since his at-the-time shocking knockout loss to a debuting Junior dos Santos in October of 2008, and he's coming back off a loss to Alistair Overeem.

Roy Nelson snapped a two-fight losing streak to dos Santos and Frank Mir in his last fight when he knocked out Mirko Cro Cop, and he hopes to keep himself on the winning track.

The biggest question coming into this fight is what type of gameplan Werdum wants to employ against Nelson. When he faced Overeem last summer, he had no desire to strike with him, instead attempting to pull guard throughout in an ugly affair. Nelson, however, has a very good top game, and bringing the fight to the ground may be a dangerous proposition, even for an immensely skilled submission fighter such as he.

Werdum was able to defeat Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva with his striking game, but Nelson has one-punch knockout power himself, and presents a difficult test there as well. Then there's Nelson's durability and his ability to take punishment, a factor that makes it hard to see Werdum stopping this fight.

This is a hard fight to pick, because Werdum is certainly capable of damaging Nelson with strikes or scoring points with his grappling, but Nelson is more likely to have success on his feet and is very solid on the ground. Though Werdum is favored in the bout, I'm going to lean towards Nelson keeping the fight on the feet and getting the better of Werdum.

PREDICTION: Nelson via TKO in the second round

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce (Welterweight)

This welterweight matchup came about when Condit was yanked up into the main event, and Koscheck agreed to face a much lesser-known name in Pierce. For Pierce, this fight is an opportunity to get himself into the title picture with what would be the biggest win of his career.

Pierce is a very talented wrestler, and his grappling game has allowed him to have success inside the Octagon with five wins in seven fights.

However, Koscheck is also a very talented wrestler, who has a much better striking game to go along with that. Koscheck has the power to damage opponents, and he can keep the fight standing if Pierce tries to get him down.

Pierce is a game opponent, and he won't make it easy for Koscheck, but I don't see him out-striking Koscheck in this one, and that's likely where the fight will be contested.

PREDICTION: Koscheck via unanimous decision

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen (Bantamweight)

The second most exciting fight on this card, the Barao-Jorgensen matchup more likely than not will determine a Bantamweight Title challenger, or at least get the winner into a number one contender fight.

Barao is very good. He just is. That fact kind of flew under the radar because he racked up a 24-fight unbeaten streak while fighting competition in his home country of Brazil, and the Brazil scene itself hadn't been known for providing the most competition for the most successful fighters. However, Barao has racked up four straight wins under the Zuffa banner in both the WEC and now UFC, and his most recent destruction of Brad "One Punch" Pickett in November was his statement on how much fighters should take him seriously.

Jorgensen, meanwhile, has consistently proven himself to be one of the top bantamweights in the world through a lengthy career in the WEC and now UFC as well. His 7-2 run in the WEC earned him a title fight against Dominick Cruz to close out his run in that organization, but he fell short in a five round decision.

His UFC debut got him back on track when he knocked Ken Stone out in June, and then defeated Jeff Curran by decision in October. Jorgensen's not necessarily elite in any one area, but he's very, very good at almost everything, making him one of the toughest fights in the bantamweight division.

Barao is rightly favored after his performance against Pickett, but Jorgensen is capable of winning this fight. I think Barao will score well in two of the three rounds to take this one, but Jorgensen has only been stopped once in his career, and certainly could utilize his grappling game to take two rounds as well.

PREDICTION: Barao via unanimous decision

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks (Middleweight)

Herman's career was in jeopardy back in 2009 after he shredded his knee in a fight with Aaron Simpson. He was on the sidelines for nearly two years before returning to the UFC last June, and in two fights in 2011 he looked as good as he had at any point in his UFC run.

He stopped Tim Credeur in just 48 seconds at The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale, then locked on a heel hook to submit Kyle Noke in August, and now he'll look to continue that momentum against the undefeated Starks.

Starks moved his career record to 8-0 in his UFC debut by utilizing his wrestling game to take a decision over Dustin Jacoby. It wasn't a great fight, but it was still a solid win to kick off his UFC career. The former D-1 collegiate wrestler at Arizona State University (and teammate of former UFC Champion Cain Velasquez), ran his MMA record to 7-0 before getting the call to the UFC, and moves up to his first pay-per-view card appearance in just his second fight.

However, Starks' dominant attribute may work against him in this bout, as Herman is really good off his back and is capable of snatching submissions on Starks if taken down. He's also no slouch standing, so Herman should win this fight.

PREDICTION: Herman via submission in the first round

=====Preliminary Card Quick Picks=====

* Dustin Poirier over Max Holloway via submission in the second round
* Edwin Figueroa over Alex Caceres via TKO in the second round
* Matt Brown over Chris Cope via TKO in the first round
* Matt Riddle over Henry Martinez via unanimous decision
* Michael Kuiper over Rafael Natal via TKO in the first round
* Stephen Thompson over Dan Stittgen via unanimous decision

=====Confidence and Betting Contest Picks=====

11 - Poirier - SUB RD 2
10 - Herman - SUB RD 1
9 - Koscheck - DEC
8 - Figueroa - TKO RD 2
7 - Brown - TKO RD 1
6 - Barao - DEC
5 - Condit - TKO RD 2
4 - Nelson - TKO RD 2
3 - Riddle - DEC
2 - Thompson - DEC
1 - Kuiper - TKO RD 1

$500 on Condit
$200 on Nelson
$100 on Figueroa
$200 on Figueroa, Nelson, Condit