Penick's Take
PENICK: Notebook 12/27 - Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem thoughts, Cerrone-Diaz poll results, Fuel TV numbers
Dec 28, 2011 - 12:35:20 AM PENICK: Notebook 12/27 - Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem thoughts, Cerrone-Diaz poll results, Fuel TV numbers

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

-Watching the "Countdown to UFC 141" today, I'm really getting sold on Brock Lesnar against Alistair Overeem on Friday night. I've been wavering a bit on the pick in this fight for the last few weeks, but as the fight gets closer and closer, I'm really leaning towards Lesnar. He truly does look to be in much better shape and condition than he was in 2010, and even though he's had a significant layoff, his cardio is going to be much better than what Overeem brings to the cage. I'll go into more detail on the fight in my official preview for tomorrow, but my gut feeling right now is that if Lesnar can avoid the early knockdown and rush from Overeem, he's going to be able to grind him out and finish this fight late in the second or early in the third.

-While Lesnar-Overeem will get the bulk of the attention this week as the main event, the co-main between Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz is getting fans really excited as well. In the polls we've posted in the last two days, 74% of those responding believe this fight will be the fight of the night, and a whopping 79% favor Cerrone to come out on top. I'm on board with the majority in this one. Cerrone has been on an absolute tear, and while Diaz did look excellent against Takanori Gomi in his last fight, Cerrone isn't Gomi. Cerrone's developed into a very smart striker, and he's got a killer instinct that will allow him to take control as soon as he's got Diaz in trouble. This is an awesome lightweight fight, and I can't wait to see it on Friday night.

-I'm not the least bit shocked at the low numbers the Countdown show drew on Fuel TV, and for a lot of the UFC programming that's going to be on the network, these are probably the types of numbers that will be garnered during the week. Certain things will bring more viewers, like live pre- and post-shows, prelim fights and live events, but it's still not going to be that much early on. The network is available in only 36 million homes, but only a small percentage of those that have access to it are MMA fans. That's part of the issue as they try to transition it into a home for the UFC. Many of the fans that want to view the programming that will be on the network simply don't have access to it, and the problem is compounded when the people that do have access to the channel may not be interested in the programming.