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Jan 30, 2009 - 5:59:46 PM By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist It's late in the week, and I'm short on time so let's get right to it.
MATT ARROYO VS. DAN CRAMER
Arroyo has the edge in experience and grappling. That'll be plenty here.
Prediction: Arroyo by submission in round 1
MANNY GAMBURYAN VS. THIAGO TAVARES
The battle of the underachievers. I think Tavares gets back on the winning track. I also think Gamburyan should drop down to 145 and move on to the WEC. Big fish in a little pond type of thing.
Prediction: Tavares by TKO in round 2
CHRIS WILSON VS. JOHN HOWARD
Tough first fight for Howard. Wilson is solid, has a big experience edge, and a six inch height advantage. Good luck John.
Prediction: Wilson by TKO in round 1
JAKE O'BRIEN VS. CHRISTIAN WELLISCH
Both are making the cut to 205 for the first time, and that favors the wrestler in O'Brien who knows how to cut. I don't have high hopes for this one.
Prediction: O'Brien by decision
JON FITCH VS. AKIHIRO GONO
If Karo can't go, I know plenty of people who'd love to see this fight take his place on the main card. Fitch is a beast, but Gono is a tough out. Should be a good scrap, but I just don't see either fighter being finished.
Prediction: Fitch by decision
STEPHAN BONNAR VS. JON JONES
Can't wait for this one. Bonnar has been out of action longer than Jones has been training in MMA. How much has Jones improved since his last fight? How rusty will Bonnar be. Questions I'm excited to have answered. I'm still taking Bonnar, but I won't be surprised to see this go a number of different ways.
Prediction: Bonnar by submission in round 2
NATE DIAZ VS. CLAY GUIDA
Great match-up...but not for Nate Diaz. He'll try to keep Guida at bay with his reach, then he'll work tirelessly for submissions when he inevitably gets taken down, but in the end it won't be enough. Guida will spend too much time on top and he'll do plenty of damage with his frenetic pace to earn a decision.
Prediction: Guida by decision
KARO PARISYAN VS. DONG HYUN KIM
A rare battle of judokas in the Octagon. Parisyan has all the talent in the world, but he just hasn't been the same fighter recently. He's also been fairly inactive due to injuries and panic attacks. I just don't know if a tough battle with a fighter like Kim is what the doctor ordered for Parisyan. I still think he'll be able to pull out a decision on talent alone, but it'll be uninspired.
Prediction: Parisyan by decision
THIAGO SILVA VS. LYOTO MACHIDA
Love this fight. Silva will push Machida harder than he's ever been pushed, and Machida will respond. Machida's style is brilliantly effective, but here he's gonna have to get his hands dirty. It's then that we'll see his full array of skills, and I have a feeling they're gonna be impressive.
Prediction: Machida by TKO in round 3
BJ PENN VS. GEORGES ST. PIERRE
What more can be said here? It won't disappoint. It can't. I'm a BJ man myself (did that sound weird?). I think BJ's chin vs. GSP's is the biggest advantage either fighter has in this fight, and I think it'll be the difference. BJ will take everything GSP has to throw at him and he'll keep coming. Eventually he'll connect with a heavy shot and put GSP away with a flurry reminiscent of the ending of the Sean Sherk fight. I do have to say though, if it gets past the third I'll start to worry.
Prediction: Penn by TKO in round 3
Fake money:
$200 on Penn
$200 on Silva
$200 on Jones
$200 on Kim
$200 on Guida
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