Pelkey's Take
PELKEY: Vitor Belfort drew the blueprint for beating Jon Jones, but does the right challenger exist?
Sep 25, 2012 - 9:20:44 PM PELKEY: Vitor Belfort drew the blueprint for beating Jon Jones, but does the right challenger exist?

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By: Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist

It first occurred to me about two and a half years ago. It was the first ever UFC event on Versus, headlined by Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera. All most people remember about that fight is Jon Jones breaking Vera's face with a brutal elbow, but what stuck out to me was how haphazardly Jones left those freakishly long arms sitting on Vera's stomach and chest, just waiting to be locked up in a triangle, or, more likely, an armbar.

I get it. Jones likes to play the wrist control game from guard to find openings for said devastating elbows. And to his credit, it's been a pretty successful formula for him thus far in his (somehow) short career. But look at his competition since that fight: Vladdy Matyushenko, Ryan Bader, Shogun Rua, Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida, and Rashad Evans before Saturday's fight with Vitor Belfort. Shogun was thought to pose potential problems on the ground for Jones, but he was knocked silly about fifteen seconds into that fight and never recovered. Nobody else on that list comes to mind when you think of dangerous guard players.

That being said, its not as simple as "be slick off your back and you can beat Jon Jones." If that was the case I'd be touting Vinny Magalhaes as one of Bones' toughest challenges out there. See, Jon Jones, like Georges St-Pierre, has the biggest advantage one can possess in MMA; he decides, at all times, where the fight takes place. If he wants to strike, you're gonna have to strike with him. If he wants to plant you on your back and throw those 'bows, sorry, but you might want to get comfortable down there. And its not just offensively for Jones. Defensively he's a marvel as well. He's never been taken down and held there. So the key is, you have to get Jones to want to take you down. A fool's errand, I know. So that's our two components: a great submission game off your back, and a striking game good enough to give the champ some serious pause.

In hindsight, people should've been giving Belfort much more of a shot in pulling off the upset prior to UFC 152 based on his skill-set. That's not to say I think he'd be one of the top light-heavyweights in the UFC if he fought at 205 full-time. But much more so than Rashad, Rampage, and even Lyoto Machida, Belfort had the tools to pull it off.

And now he's had his shot. I doubt we'll be seeing that rematch any time soon despite Vitor coming closer than anyone else to defeating the young Champ. So who else is out there? Before he hurt his knee and caused this whole hullabaloo in the first place, it was supposed to be Dan Henderson getting the title shot. Not that he's not deserving, but Hendo just isn't the guy to get it done to me. He has legendary power, but Jones knows almost too well how to use his length to keep strikers outside their range. Plus, Hendo has legendarily shaky takedown defense. If Jones feels threatened on the feet, he'll plant Hendo on his back and go to work. All those out there who can see Hendo armbarring Jones, raise your hand. Anyone?

Chael Sonnen is a far better grappler than his (sometime) teammate Dan Henderson, but he lacks the power to threaten Jones standing, and, considering the distinct size disadvantage he's at, he seems a long shot to be the first one to put, and keep, Jones on his back.

Further down the line doesn't look terribly daunting for the champ either. Alexander Gustafsson? No wrestling game to speak of and unless he develops some kill-shot power, he's currently a sitting duck against Jones. Glover Texiera? Eh, we'll see. I need a little more than tooling Kyle Kingsbury before I'm truly buying in, but he's 32. Can we please get him a real fight after he disposes of Maldonado? He's either ready or he isn't. Time to find out.

How about Phil Davis (remember him?)? He stands the best chance of actually putting Jones on his back, and his submission wrestling game could actually give the champ some serious problems. But Davis is light years behind Jones on the learning curve for striking, and it'll be a long time until his stand-up is good enough for him to use it to get inside on Jon Jones.

There's obviously one guy out there who perfectly fits the description I've laid out: Mr. Anderson Silva. But that fight is three years away at the absolute earliest (if it even ever even comes to fruition). Jon Jones can be beaten. Vitor Belfort proved it when he nearly snapped his arm. But unless Vinny Magalhaes suddenly becomes the reincarnate of Bruce Lee (and stops being all Vinny Magalhaes-y), its gonna be a long, long title reign for Jonny "Bones" Jones.