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By: Sam Matthew, MMATorch Columnist
With the highly anticipated rematch of the year between Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida headlining this Saturday’s UFC 113, the main event isn’t the only fight to look forward to. Featuring great matchups on the main card, including the potential for epic standup battles between Sam Stout and Jeremy Stephens, Patrick Cote and Alan Belcher and Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley, the evening should be loaded with action. Coupled with enough big name fights on the undercard to pick and choose from, UFC executives should have plenty of excitement for the fans and can certainly expect some of their biggest PPV numbers of the year.
Main Card Predictions
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua: To put it simply, this fight has more on the line than any other in recent history. Not only is it a battle between two of the most evenly matched fighters in the top MMA promotion’s most stacked division, not only is it a clash between two distinct styles in Karate and Muay Thai, not only is it for a belt, but it is a fight that was left unresolved when the two met the first time around.
The combatant’s first bout was very evenly matched and turned into a strategic stand up battle that was so technical it left many wondering how to judge it fairly, and ultimately warranted an immediate rematch regardless of the decision. I personally think that Rua’s leg and body kicks are what resulted in Machida’s laggard approach and, in my eyes, did a lot more damage than the reigning champion’s rare but well-timed knees.
It's been said before, but a lot of judges sitting cageside just don’t seem to reward leg kicks unless the fighter on the receiving end starts visibly limping and collapsing, as seen recently by Urijah Faber and Renzo Gracie.
So with “Shogun” struggling to get the victory the first time, what more can he do on the second effort? Well, finish, for one, but Machida is so good at defensive countering that even world-class fighters have to be careful engaging him, especially since you know he’s bringing his A-game after such vehement public denial of the first decision.
I see this fight going the distance again, and even though Machida is slightly favored, PRIDE is always in my heart and I think Rua will convince the judges enough for a split decision win. One thing's for sure though, Dana White’s got to be rooting for “Shogun” to displace Machida so he can finally setup Anderson Silva’s title shot at 205 lb. where “The Spider” should have no qualms about engaging the only man to beat his teammate.
If Rua can avoid the lightning-fast strikes of Machida and counter with leg kicks like he did before, then he can slow his opponent down enough to catch him, latch on the plum behind the head to land some of his old-school Muay Thai knees from the clinch and score enough points to win a split decision. (Opinion – 51% chance of victory)
If Machida can use his crafty style to jump in, land a hard shot, and get out fast then he can avoid taking damage and frustrate Rua to a split decision. (Opinion – 49% chance of victory)
Paul Daley vs. Josh Koscheck: Even though everyone knows Koscheck has heavy power in his right hand, I don’t think it would be wise to play Daley’s game and stand in front of him. Though I would love to see a brawl ensue, the smart move for Koscheck is to fall back on his wrestling base, take the Brit down, and grind out a decision with some ground and pound.
If Daley can talk enough trash to keep the cocky Koscheck (say that five times fast) standing then he can KO him late in the 1st round. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)
If Koscheck can take Daley down then he walks away with an easy unanimous decision. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)
Patrick Cote vs. Alan Belcher: This has the potential for Fight of the Night as two of the world’s superior middleweight strikers face off with nothing but little 4oz. gloves between them. Both are tough enough warriors to last the distance, but with so much power in the cage I think one of these guys is going to sleep. It’s a tough one to pick but if I had to it’d be Belcher because his striking game is more dynamic using every weapon he has, knees, shins, elbows, etc.
If Cote can close the distance then he can land his right hand bomb and finish Belcher late in the 3rd. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)
If Belcher can keep Cote out of punching range with leg and body kicks then he can setup a 3rd round high kick KO exclamation mark that puts him in the running for a title shot. (Opinion – 55% chance of victory)
Jeremy Stephens vs. Sam Stout: Another incredibly exciting match up with two scrappy up-and-comers who love to duke it out. Don’t be surprised if this wins Fight of the Night, but keep an eye out for the smarter fighter to try for a takedown early just to keep their opponent guessing. Stout has an advantage being at home but he also looked sublime in his most recent outing demolishing Joe Lauzon, a fighter who has handed Stephens a defeat.
If Stout can withstand some of the heavy punches that “Lil’ Heathen” can land and use the energy of his hometown crowd to power through the pain, then he can avoid a brawl and turn the fight into a one-way, unanimous decision victory by picking Stephens apart from a distance with his more technically sound kickboxing. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)
If Stephens can get past the kicks of Stout and land his nasty uppercut inside then he has the sheer tenacity to drop Stout and force a TKO stoppage with standing ground and pound. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)
Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson vs. Matt Mitrione: Having Kimbo on the card just adds to your casual public draw, but I still think this is probably the least exciting matchup on the main card. Still, it should tell us a lot about the future of both fighters as Mitrione should be considered ‘green’ having a measly 1-0 pro record but still looking dangerous in the few fights he has had with TUF. The youtube legend, Kimbo, on the other hand, is aging fast and complaining about knee problems, but despite being known as a one-dimensional striker he has shown some aptitude for grappling. I don’t know how to call it but I hope they choose to stand and trade for the benefit of the fans.
If Mitrione plays smart and takes Kimbo down then he can ground and pound a TKO win halfway through the 2nd. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)
If Kimbo can bring his street fury into the cage and show Mitrione what its like to be in an actual fight then he can showcase his experience by dropping his opponent early in the 2nd, earning himself a TKO finish to keep his UFC career afloat. (Opinion – 55% chance of victory)
Undercard Predictions
Joe Doerksen vs. Tom Lawlor
If Joe Doerksen can get the fight to the ground early in the 1st before he wears out then he can work a choke submission. (Opinion – 15% chance of victory)
If Lawlor can punish Doerksen standing then he will exhaust the older fighter and be able to land shots at will from the guard or on the feet to force a TKO stoppage. (Opinion – 85% chance of victory)
Marcus Davis vs. Jonathan Goulet
If Marcus Davis can connect with the crisp boxing he’s known for then its lights out for Goulet and back to Canadian fight promotions for good. (Opinion – 80% chance of victory)
If Jonathan Goulet can avoid punches and secure a takedown then his weak chin won’t have to be tested and he can work on a submission to try and exhaust the older Davis into deeper water and a decision victory. (Opinion – 20% chance of victory)
T.J. Grant vs. Johny Hendricks
If T.J. Grant can somehow get on top of Hendricks then he has a submission grappling advantage and can finish with an armbar late in the 2nd. (Opinion – 35% chance of victory)
If Johny Hendricks can threaten with takedown attempts then he can setup vicious strikes to drop his opponent and allow for a TKO ground and pound finish. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)
Joey Beltran vs. Tim Hague
If Joey Beltran can outstrike his opponent while taking hard shots himself then he can get a TKO finish late in the 2nd and a possible Fight of the Night bonus. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)
If Tim Hague can hit his opponent flush then he can TKO him early in the 2nd and earn himself another shot in the UFC with the 60,000$ bonus. (Opinion – 55% chance of victory)
Mike Guymon vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
If Mike Guymon can take Yoshida down then he can ground and pound his way to a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)
If Yoshiyuki Yoshida can land some of his own heavy combos then he can drop Guymon early in the 2nd and force the referee stoppage. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)
Jason MacDonald vs. John Salter
If Jason MacDonald can prove he’s in shape despite taking the fight on short notice then he can use his experience to earn a choke submission victory late in the 2nd. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)
If John Salter can wear his older opponent down with an onslaught of punches then he can keep MacDonald out of the UFC for good. (Opinion - 35% chance of victory)
Fight of the Night Prediction: Belcher v. Cote
Submission of the Night Prediction: (If there even is one) Jason MacDonald
Knockout of the Night Prediction: Paul Daley
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
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