Matthew's Take
UFC 112 PREVIEW: Matthew's fight previews and predictions with percent chance of victory
Apr 9, 2010 - 11:39:15 PM UFC 112 PREVIEW: Matthew's fight previews and predictions with percent chance of victory

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By: Sam Matthew, MMATorch Columnist

In what might go down in UFC history as two of the most poorly matched title fights ever, UFC 112 showcases arguably the greatest champions the United States has ever seen defend their belts against sub-par competition. After Chael Sonnen’s upset over Nate Marquardt vaulted him to the #1 Contender status while a nasty elbow from the bottom did not allow him enough time to heal for this Saturday’s main event, I can only imagine Dana White’s fury over letting Dan Henderson slip through his fingers in going over to his biggest rival, Strikeforce.

Henderson is literally the only man in the UFC to enter the cage with Silva and win a round, and in my opinion he’s the only middleweight that poses any threat to The Spider at all. Chael Sonnen is a much weaker wrestler than Dan with even poorer submission defense, Vitor Belfort is nowhere near the striker or grappler that Silva is, and Demian Maia is exclusively a grappler and his title matchup really seems more like a last resort 4th option the UFC had to throw together at the last minute because fans were starting to forget what their champions look like.

And with Frankie Edgar being the best lightweight the UFC can find to feed to an even hungrier B.J. Penn, I’m not expecting much from the two main events of what is supposed to be the biggest fight card of the year. The overwhelming odds don’t make either main event worth of any betting action at all, either.

Main Card Predictions:

Anderson Silva v. Demian Maia: Obviously Maia wants the fight on the ground, and I’m happy to hear he’s been training his wrestling to get it down there. I don’t see Silva allowing this to happen, but if he does end up on his back then just ask jiu-jitsu specialist Travis Lutter how it feels to be on top of the champ.

If Silva doesn’t injure or disqualify himself then he will knockout Maia halfway through the first round. (Opinion – 90% chance of victory)

If Maia can get out of the 1st round, gain some confidence and get Silva down then he has a slim chance of latching on a leg lock or choke submission late in the 2nd. (Opinion – 10% chance of victory)

B.J. Penn v. Frankie Edgar: While both guys are well-rounded, Penn is simply in a different league in every aspect of the game. Edgar’s jiu-jitsu, wrestling, striking and strength are all weaker than B.J.’s, so the only way I can see him winning is by using his smaller stature and speed to stick and move but even that’s a bad idea against the crisp boxing and beautiful jab that Penn possesses.

If Penn can catch up to the speed of Edgar then he peppers the young challenger on the feet to setup a choke submission finish late (3rd minute) of the 3rd round. (Opinion - 95% chance of victory)

If Edgar can… I don’t know, take a knee to the face with one knee down then he can DQ the champ…? (Opinion – 5% chance of victory)

Matt Hughes v. Renzo Gracie: As much as I hate the way Hughes fights, I’m actually looking forward to this fight. It’s a bit of a grudge match for Renzo to prove that the Gracie family is legit after Hughes absolutely dominated an ancient and unprepared Royce Gracie.

Most people, including the bookies, seem to forget how talented and tough Renzo is, but the fact that he hasn’t fought in years, combined with his age, make for a real tough matchup.

Incredibly some people are predicting a submission win from Hughes, but has anyone forgotten how this guy fights? Hughes is arguably the most boring fighter in the UFC because of his unwillingness to take risks, and the only way he wins this fight is by his usual unanimous decision.

He’s also not going to submit a guy who refused to tap even with his shoulder popping out of its socket against a Sakuraba kimura. Because of the overwhelming odds against him I actually think Renzo is a good bet but I wouldn’t wager too much against one of the best wrestlers in the sport.

If Hughes can smother Gracie on his back while avoiding submission attempts then he walks home with his usual unanimous decision. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)

If Renzo can once again prove to the world that Gracie jiu-jitsu can counter even the strongest wrestling then he can catch Hughes in an arm-lock submission early (2nd minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

Rafael Dos Anjos v. Terry Etim: I like Etim for this bout as he’s been on a tear lately, submitting jiu-jitsu guys like Shannon Gugerty as he uses his length to really torque those submissions, while using his height to employ smart striking on the feet taking full advantage of his reach.

Dos Anjos is no stranger to the ground game himself but with his last few fights going the distance and not always in his favor, I am surprised he is making the main card. He’s not going to win a decision over Etim, however, and I see the big deciding factor being the reach of the British native allowing him to pick his poison standing. Bet heavy on Etim as the bookies have him only slightly favored.

If Dos Anjos can get the fight to the ground and avoid very dangerous submissions then he can grind out a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 20% chance of victory)

If Etim can use his reach to keep Dos Anjos at the end of his jab then he can setup a high kick KO finish late (4th minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 80% chance of victory)

Mark Munoz v. Kendall Grove: Another fight with a big height differential though this time the shorter Munoz is favored because of his wrestling ability and strong hands. The X factor here could be Kendall’s knees, and I’m avoiding any bets for this fight because it could easily go either way.

If Munoz can get inside to close that reach advantage then he can drop Grove with strong hooks and finish from the top with a TKO early (2nd minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)

If Grove can throw good strikes while backpedaling then he can keep Munoz at a distance, land knees if his opponent shoots in and outpoint the wrestler standing for a unanimous decision win. (Opinion – 35% chance of victory)

Betting Guide:

Terry Etim – Bet very heavy
John Gunderson – Bet conservative
Rick Story – Bet conservative
Mostapha Al-Turk – Bet light
Renzo Gracie – Bet tentative

Fight of the Night Prediction: Paul Taylor v. John Gunderson
Knockout of the Night Prediction: Anderson Silva
Submission of the Night Prediction: BJ Penn