Matthew's Take
MATTHEW: UFC Fight Night 21: Florian vs. Gomi previews and predictions with percent chance of victory
Mar 31, 2010 - 5:15:15 PM MATTHEW: UFC Fight Night 21: Florian vs. Gomi previews and predictions with percent chance of victory

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By: Sam Matthew, MMATorch Columnist

Though no belts are on the line for Wednesday night’s fight card, the lineup is stacked with some very well matched fights that have plenty of potential for all-out war. Zuffa was smart to select such an action-packed card for their lead-in to The Ultimate Fighter series, and with so much close competition on the undercard, it allows their production crew to easily showcase some of the better prelim fights.

Main Card Predictions

Kenny Florian v. Takanori Gomi: The main event of the evening pits the UFC’s number two lightweight, Kenny Florian, against a PRIDE fighting legend, Takanori Gomi. Florian asked for this fight as soon as he heard Gomi was signed with the UFC and I like the kind of warrior’s spirit that has “KenFlo” looking to take on the big names.

I might give the standup advantage to Gomi, but just barely as the Boston native Florian has improved his kickboxing in leaps and bounds. Gomi has very strong boxing (if you haven’t seen his fight with Jens Pulver youtube it immediately) and I think Kenny would be wise to just neutralize that threat by taking him down, maybe cutting Gomi open with some elbows early to setup a submission.

Gomi is not used to elbow strikes, having fought in Japan where they are illegal, and this is Florian’s best move so I see Gomi getting cut wide open early on. The money lines aren’t worth a bet on either fighter here but the risk of a TKO stoppage due to cut makes Florian a pretty safe wager for a favorite.

If Gomi can stay aggressive on the feet while avoiding the takedown then he can land solid punches on Florian to force a TKO stoppage late (3rd minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 25% chance of victory)

If Florian can get the fight to the ground then he can test Gomi’s somewhat suspect grappling skills (ask Nick Diaz) and finish Gomi late (4th minute) of the 2nd round with his signature rear-naked choke submission or force a TKO cut stoppage. (Opinion – 75% chance of victory)

Roy Nelson v. Stefan Struve: Two very different giants square off as the deceptively obese Roy Nelson takes on the aptly named “Skyscraper” Stefan Struve. The difference in this fight will be Nelson’s wrestling ability and his weight advantage, as I see him being able to neutralize Struve’s reach by taking him down and working to his favorite crucifix position for ground and pound. The bookies aren’t giving Struve much of a chance here so his reach advantage and underrated submission game might make him worth a small bet.

If Struve can catch Nelson with high knees on his way in then he has the power to hurt Nelson if not KO him to win a 3 round war via unanimous decision. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

If Nelson can weather some damage to get Struve on his back then he can use his weight to keep the taller opponent down and avoid the long legs and submissions that go with them to grind out a unanimous decision win. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)

I love this matchup as two aging strikers are pitted against each other to prove which one still belongs, and which one should retire. Both fighters love to stand and bang and if Rivera wants to play this game I think Quarry has the jaw to take some punishment and the power to end Rivera’s career. With the potential for a fight of the night and knockout of the night, I’m very excited for this bout. The money lines favor Quarry and I agree with them enough that I would avoid any bets on this match.

If Quarry can prove that he can still weather the storm and take the kind of damage he has for years then he can counter punch Rivera and punish him into retirement with a brutal KO early (2nd minute) of the 3rd round. (Opinion – 70% chance of victory)

If Rivera can catch Quarry swinging wild then he can counter himself or shoot under for a takedown and walk home with a ground and pound TKO win late (4th minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 30% chance of victory)

This bout has more on the line than just reputation. Stylistically, it’s a Boxing v. Kickboxing match, with the British slugger Ross Pearson being a very well-rounded boxer and Dennis Siver having some phenomenal kickboxing skills. Siver’s enough of an underdog that he might be worth a conservative bet but it’s risky considering the combinations Pearson showcased recently against Aaron Riley.

If Pearson can close the distance and get in Siver’s face then he can land his combo’s and drop Siver late (4th minute) of the 2nd round with a TKO win. (Opinion 60% chance of victory)

If Siver can use his kicking range to keep Pearson at a distance and avoid punches while landing leg and body kicks, then he can setup a high kick KO finish late (3rd minute) of the 3rd round. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

Preliminary Card Predictions

Nik Lentz v. Rob Emerson: This is a fight that should be an all-out war and I hope it will be shown on Spike as two guys who love to trade punches square off in the cage. I consider these two fighters to be very similar in their approach and very evenly matched. However, with Emerson a slight underdog he might be the more financially prudent bet though my gut tells me Nik Lentz is on his way up to bigger and better competition after a big win.

If Emerson can prove to be the better striker then he can outpoint Lentz for a split-decision win. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)

If Lentz can showcase his standup and convince Emerson he wants to trade punches then he can setup takedowns to win a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 55% chance of victory)

Rafaello Oliveira v. Andre Winner: Look for Winner to keep the fight standing while Oliveira wants to control it on the ground. The money lines have Oliveira rated enough of an underdog that I think he’s worth a light bet.

If Winner can keep the fight on its feet then he can out point Oliveira without taking too much damage and walk away with a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)

If Oliveira can control the fight from top position on the ground while threatening with submissions late in the round then he can win a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

Ronys Torres v. Jacob Volkmann: I’m so pumped for this fight as two submission specialists face off in what may turn out to be a standup war. Whether it goes to the ground or stays on the feet this is going to be an exciting fight that has great potential for airtime on Spike and even possible candidacy for a fight of the night. Normally in such an even matchup I’d say pick the underdog but I agree with the bookies in favoring Ronys Torres here.

If Volkmann has improved his standup even more than when he fought Martin Kampmann then he can drop Torres with solid shots and grind out a unanimous decision win from top position. (Opinion – 30% chance of victory)

If Torres can get Volkmann down then I give the Brazilian a slight advantage on the ground and can see him breaking Volkmann’s limb with one of his trademark armbar submissions late (3rd minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 70% chance of victory)

Gleison Tibau v. Caol Uno: This is new school versus old school. The experienced vet Caol Uno is looking to keep his career alive with an upset over jiu-jitsu ace Gleison Tibau. If Shinya Aoki couldn’t submit Uno I don’t see Tibau being able to but I still think the Brazilian has the size and strength to grind out a decision victory from the top.

If Caol Uno can showcase his experience by staying relaxed, getting back to his feet when taken down and landing strikes while standing then he can win a split decision. (Opinion – 25% chance of victory)

If Tibau can use his size to keep Uno on his back once the fight goes down then he can ground and pound to improve position and win a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 75% chance of victory)

Yushin Okami v. Lucio Linhares: The massive Okami comes into this fight a huge favorite against grappling ace Lucio Linhares. For me, the moneyline actually makes Linhares a decent bet but I would keep it very small as Okami is favored for a reason. His size may be able to negate Linhares’ submission attempts but anything can happen in MMA.

If Okami can avoid being taken down then he should be able to outstrike Linhares for a unanimous decision win. (Opinion - 65% chance of victory)

If Linhares can get the massive Okami down then he has the jiu-jitsu skills to pull off an early (2nd minute) leglock or choke submission in the 2nd round. (Opinion – 35% chance of victory)

Charlie Brenneman v. Jason High: Perhaps best known for being on the receiving end of a highlight reel head kick KO from Marius Zaromskis, Jason High is still the real deal and he’s one favorite I would feel safe betting on. I don’t recognize any of the guys Charlie Brenneman has faced and think he’s going to have his hands full dealing with the kind of wrestling prowess that Jason High brings to the cage.

If Jason High gets the fight to the ground, as he should be able to at will, then he grinds out the unanimous decision win. (Opinion – 80% chance of victory)

If Brenneman can land a hard punch with those little 5oz. gloves on then he can drop Jason High for a TKO finish late in the 3rd. (Opinion – 20% chance of victory)

Gerald Harris v. Mario Miranda: Gerald Harris has a great wrestling base but he’s taking on a very tough and undefeated Mario Miranda. This fight is a toss-up and I would avoid any bets for this one.

If Harris can take Miranda down then he can control from top for a unanimous decision win. (Opinion - 50% chance of victory)

If Miranda can land heavy shots and stuff the takedown then he can TKO Harris late in the 2nd. (Opinion – 50% chance of victory)

Fight of the Night Prediction: Lentz v. Emerson
Submission of the Night Prediction: Ronys Torres
Knockout of the Night Prediction: Nate Quarry

Betting Guide: Multiple tentative bets on mostly underdogs to spread out losses and maximize wins.
Rafaello Oliveira – Bet light
Jason High – Bet heavy
Lucio Linhares – Smallest bet possible
Stefan Struve – Bet light